The ECMWF 14-day MJO forecast indicates an eastward shift away from Australia. The transition indicates gradually less wet risk to Australia (especially the north coast) and a slight increase in wet risk for South America (by mid-month). The influence on the U.S. a shift from short-term warmth to a cooler medium-range forecast.

A significant predictor for numbers of the most intense storms is the presence of warmer-than-normal deep tropics ocean water as measured by the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index. During the past 25 years the North Atlantic tropics have typically been somewhat warmer than normal during the core of the tropical cyclone season.