There is a significant change in the ENSO outlook: Stronger La Nina for late 2020 into early 2021. The catalyst to this stronger La Nina forecast is the previously proposed influence (on ENSO) by an evolving negative Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD). The -IOD pattern warms the (already very warm) eastern Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean tropics while cooler-than-normal waters dominate the equatorial Pacific east of the Dateline.

The number of drier soil moisture regions outweighed the wetter regimes by 14 to 8 in August 2020. In North America a drier trend became established over the Southwest U.S. centered on the 4-Corners region. The Ohio Valley also trended drier. Canadian dryness extended to New England although drought in Western Canada eased.

An Excessive Heat Warning is issued for the southern half of California and an upgrade from a watch to a warning for the northern half of California is due by tomorrow. Excessive heat warnings are the highest state of alert for the California electricity markets. The projected population weight CDD for Sep. 4-10 for the Pacific region is 104 which is slightly higher than the 102 observed Aug. 14-20.

Negative phase Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to develop the next 1-3 months. Coupled with La Nina a wet Australia climate ahead is likely. 2010 and 1998 were -IOD years with La Nina present during quarter 4. The result was a very wet climate across northern and eastern Australia.