High pressure ridging across a region of developing shallow soil moisture deficit where deep layer soil moisture deficit already exits indicates a flash drought risk.

The Climate Impact Company U.S. population weight CDD anomaly forecast for each of the next 4 weeks indicates moderately to much higher than normal cooling demand.

Upper ocean heat anomalies became boldly negative east of the Dateline in the equatorial Pacific Ocean last month. Implied was plenty of support for La Nina ahead. However, the past couple weeks have observed the cool anomalies staring to weaken indicating and La Nina ahead would be brief and weak.

Presence of aerosol/dust extending westward via the trade winds from the African deserts is a suppressing factor on tropical wave development in the North Atlantic tropics. Currently, heavy dust is projected today into the Caribbean Sea while the origin in West Africa remains prominent.