Latest News

03/27/2024, 10:33 am EDT

Reworking North Atlantic Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Climatology

Climate Impact Company has renewed seasonal North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology for 1950-2023 for both El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index phase and intensity. The climatology is based on ENSO and TNA index for AUG/SEP/OCT of each year.
03/25/2024, 10:34 am EDT

El Nino Hanging On Despite Cooling Subsurface

Most instructive regarding ENSO is the current upper ocean heat analysis and comparison with one month ago. Note that the most recent analysis yields a sharp cool (blue) anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific off the northwest coast of South America. Westward toward the Dateline, an area of shallow anomalous warmth lingers able to sustain El Nino. Note the one-month trend is steadily cooler favoring weakening of El Nino and increasing risk of following La Nina.
03/25/2024, 6:02 am EDT

Australia Climate Likely to Shift Back into Wetter Regime of Early Decade

The Australia season 1-4 ahead outlook is update. The forecast is based primarily on an expected phase change of both the ENSO and IOD regimes plus the influence of marine heat waves on climate. The overall theme of the outlook is wetter as the 2020-22 wet climate across much of Australia returns for 2024.
03/19/2024, 12:48 pm EDT

Hotter Than Normal MAY-SEP U.S. CDD Forecasts

The preliminary U.S. population weight monthly CDD anomaly forecast for April through October 2024 indicates a similar pattern to the past 3 years: Near normal early in the season, increasing anomalous heat through mid-season which can ease slightly late in the season.
03/17/2024, 7:11 am EDT

Transient MJO Causal to Wetter Brazil/Australia/U.S. Midwest Pattern Ahead

The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation stretches across Maritime Continent and responsible for an active tropical cyclone pattern affecting Australia including Cateogry-2 Tropical Cyclone Megan on the North Coast. As the MJO shifts eastward and across the equatorial Pacific, the 5th such MJO surge since last September, a wetter pattern for Brazil and the Midwest U.S. generates in 8-14 days.