Latest News
03/27/2024, 10:33 am EDT
Climate Impact Company has renewed seasonal North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology for 1950-2023 for both El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index phase and intensity. The climatology is based on ENSO and TNA index for AUG/SEP/OCT of each year.
03/25/2024, 10:34 am EDT
Most instructive regarding ENSO is the current upper ocean heat analysis and comparison with one month ago. Note that the most recent analysis yields a sharp cool (blue) anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific off the northwest coast of South America. Westward toward the Dateline, an area of shallow anomalous warmth lingers able to sustain El Nino. Note the one-month trend is steadily cooler favoring weakening of El Nino and increasing risk of following La Nina.
03/25/2024, 6:02 am EDT
The Australia season 1-4 ahead outlook is update. The forecast is based primarily on an expected phase change of both the ENSO and IOD regimes plus the influence of marine heat waves on climate. The overall theme of the outlook is wetter as the 2020-22 wet climate across much of Australia returns for 2024.
03/19/2024, 12:48 pm EDT
The preliminary U.S. population weight monthly CDD anomaly forecast for April through October 2024 indicates a similar pattern to the past 3 years: Near normal early in the season, increasing anomalous heat through mid-season which can ease slightly late in the season.
03/17/2024, 7:11 am EDT
The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation stretches across Maritime Continent and responsible for an active tropical cyclone pattern affecting Australia including Cateogry-2 Tropical Cyclone Megan on the North Coast. As the MJO shifts eastward and across the equatorial Pacific, the 5th such MJO surge since last September, a wetter pattern for Brazil and the Midwest U.S. generates in 8-14 days.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Shifting MJO Influence on Australia, South America, and Europe Rainfall
The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) has been very active since last September. The 5th transient MJO across the equatorial Pacific recently ended and MJO is now shifting across the tropical Atlantic and heading back to home base in the Indian Ocean tropics in early April. The 15-day forecast utilizing all models indicates an eastward shift reaching Maritime Continent in 2 weeks with marginally moderate intensity is likely.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
The March 2024 Global Marine Heat Wave Discussion and Outlook
During the past decade marine heat waves (MHW) have dramatically increased their presence, aerial coverage, and duration poleward of the deep tropics in both hemispheres. The influence on climate is dramatic and warrants application of a 10-year optimum climate normal (OCN) both to generating seasonal forecasts and explaining climate regime observations on an annual, seasonal, and monthly basis. In February 2024, MHW’s occupied 38% of the global oceans ranking 5th during all months since 1991 according to NOAA.