Latest News

02/19/2018, 9:37 am EST

La Nina CRASH by April

Weak La Nina continues but a recent (warm) subsurface Kelvin Wave into the East Pacific has eroded the cool water supply to sustain La Nina. Near the Dateline the next Kelvin Wave is forming and by April shifts into the eastern equatorial Pacific wiping out La Nina.
02/15/2018, 6:24 pm EST

Will A Returning Warm Phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation Contribute to U.S. Summertime Drought?

The warm phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation is re-emerging. Coupled with an expected warmer than normal North Atlantic during the northern hemisphere warm season in 2018 research by McCabe, Palecki and Betancourt have shown a climatological increased risk of drought to the Northwest U.S., Great Plains and Southeast U.S. given these middle latitude oceanic conditions.
02/07/2018, 9:08 am EST

Entering Solar Minima

The January 2018 solar cycle sunspot number is updated by NOAA/SWPC. The observed data identifies a persistent decline in activity and indicates entrance into the solar minima which on average occurs every 11 years. The entrance to solar minima is 1 year ahead of forecast. Implied is another potentially unusually lengthy solar minima as observed in 2008-2010.
02/03/2018, 7:33 am EST

When Climate Change Affects The North America/Europe 8-14/11-15 Day Forecast

Another exceptional climate event is forecast by operational meteorological models in 10 days as the strongest sudden stratospheric warming event of winter 2017-18 develops over Greenland. Due to the influence of climate change, this time the SSW event does not produce an arctic outbreak. Why?
01/31/2018, 11:35 am EST

The ENSO Forecast Dilemma for 2018

The extended-range ENSO forecast is uncertain as models vary from sustained La Nina to a possible El Nino onset. Tracking the dynamics of the subsurface over the next 2-3 months is the best diagnostic to determine ENSO phase into mid-2018.