While the U.S. AG Belt may receive some patchy wet weather during the medium range, the South America forecast is trending wetter. Rainfall increases in both Argentina and Brazil in the 2-week outlook, possibly too wet.
Cold temperatures spread across Eastern Europe, Ukraine, and Southwest Russia this morning forecast to return Thursday morning concentrated on Eastern Ukraine. Another pulse of cold shifts into Romania and Western Ukraine Friday morning. The cold slowly retreats northward this weekend.
March 2025 was the 6th warmest in the 131-year climatology. MUCH ABOVE normal warmth was observed across much of the Central and Northeast U.S. including top 5 all-time for Kansas and Nebraska. Only Florida and California were near normal in the contiguous 48 states.
While the potential for El Nino development seems to be developing, the statistical and dynamic forecast models are only partially indicating weak El Nino potential and include a slight risk of weak La Nina returning later in 2025 while the consensus forecast is neutral ENSO through 2025. However, evidence to support El Nino return in 2026 is increasing.