April 2025 - Climate Impact Company

News

04/29/2025, 4:39 pm EDT

Is -IOD Potential for Q3/2025 Dependent on ENSO Flipping Back Toward La Nina?

The Indian Ocean dipole is in the positive phase although forecast to shift neutral as mid-year approaches. Forecast models/analogs suggest that if ENSO trend is toward (or into) La Nina during Q3/2025 the risk of -IOD developing increases substantially.

04/29/2025, 4:32 pm EDT

Adding The East for Heavy Rain Next Week?

Next week, the ECM is forecasting a low-pressure area to cutoff in the East causing a potential excessive rainfall episode in the Mid-Atlantic States. Using Richmond, VA as an example, rainfall could accumulate to 5-6 in. according to ECM while other models (GFS and GFS ENS) are not nearly as wet.

04/29/2025, 4:23 pm EDT

Excessive Rain/Flooding Southern Plains/Texas

Ongoing flooding in Oklahoma to Texas will intensify as another 7-10 inches of rain is possible over the next 1-2 days. River flooding, travel hazards, power outages, and crop damage increase. A second event is likely next week! The hardest hit area for flooding is Oklahoma likely to exceed the intensity of the Ohio/Mississippi River flooding event of early April.

04/29/2025, 6:03 am EDT

An Update On Regional SSTA Across The North Atlantic Basin

The Gulf of Mexico is very warm at 0.73C above normal, a warmer change of 0.17C during the past 2 weeks. The bulk of the anomalous warmth is across the Northern Gulf of Mexico and linked to the very warm month of April across the Gulf States and more recently to heavy rains evolving over Texas. The Gulf of Mexico is nearly half of a degree C warmer than 1 year ago.