January 2025 - Page 9 of 10 - Climate Impact Company

News

01/08/2025, 8:07 am EST

The South America Forecast Model Wet Bias

The wet forecast bias by all models across Brazil is worsening. The maximum error for the 1-5-day, 6-10-day, and 11-15-day period from the past 30 days is 3+ in. of rain. The ECM is cited due to the worst verification although other models are very close, including GFS.

01/07/2025, 8:34 am EST

More Cold Ahead in U.S. During January but HDD Forecasts Are Warm Into February

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast stays cold with high national heating demand through next week. The outlook is moderately cold Jan. 17-23 and the extended range for February is much warmer due to an expected mild month in the East.

01/06/2025, 2:55 pm EST

Midday 12Z GFS Forecast A 963 MB Low Southeast of Nantucket Saturday

The 12Z GFS projects an evolving storm later this week in the northwest Gulf of Mexico region to travel northeastward and intensify south and southeast of New England by Saturday morning. At that time, the 12Z GFS forecasts a 963 MB low pressure area.

01/06/2025, 2:49 pm EST

La Nina BUT Many Ongoing Caveats

During DEC-24, the equatorial Pacific Ocean to the east of the Dateline produced a sharp drop in upper ocean heat. The observation is by far the coolest of 2024, a year when La Nina has struggled to develop. The dramatic subsurface cooling coupled with increased trade winds helped the Nino34 SSTA surge to a moderate-strength La Nina-like value of -1.1C Christmas Week. However, since that time waters have warmed slightly.