January 2025 - Page 8 of 10 - Climate Impact Company

News

01/09/2025, 2:09 pm EST

Dramatic Cooling East Pacific Subsurface in December; La Nina Lasts to Q2/2025

The Climate Impact Company ENSO Outlook for 2025 indicates La Nina will continue through Q1/2025 and weaken during Q2/2025 followed by neutral ENSO. Late in 2025, forecast confidence is low as a weak El Nino could emerge, ENSO remains neutral, or a second La Nina generates. The DEC-24 subsurface equatorial East Pacific cooled dramatically and trails only 2008 and 2010 for coolest upper ocean heat anomalies during December for all La Nina events this century.

01/09/2025, 9:15 am EST

Colder Forecasts in The U.S. Last 1/3 of January

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast remains unchanged and still cold through next week. However, the forecast is considerably colder for the week of Jan. 17-23 as previously forecast moderation is not likely. The cold HDD forecasts remain through Jan. 30. In February, HDD forecasts collapse as the East turns warmer.

01/08/2025, 11:35 am EST

The Southern California Fires

The meteorology involved with the fire features a low-pressure area over the northern Baja California Peninsula and a high-pressure area over the Great Basin. In-between the 2 pressure systems, easterly (Santa Ana) wind has spread across Southern California with periods of hurricane force gusts. A plethora of high wind and red flag warnings affect Southern California.

01/08/2025, 8:07 am EST

The South America Forecast Model Wet Bias

The wet forecast bias by all models across Brazil is worsening. The maximum error for the 1-5-day, 6-10-day, and 11-15-day period from the past 30 days is 3+ in. of rain. The ECM is cited due to the worst verification although other models are very close, including GFS.