During the current decade, a marine heat wave (MHW) east of Asia has steadily intensified and become the most dominant regional SSTA influence on northern hemisphere climate. During the second half of the previous decade, the Northeast Pacific MHW and North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) were influential on the northern hemisphere climate pattern. Added during the past 12-18 months is a persistent MHW west and southwest of Europe.

Brazil rainfall forecasts by all operational models have been notoriously too wet during the summer season. However, support for a wet 15-day outlook across much of Brazil has synoptic scale weather support and seems reasonable. The AI Graph Cast ECM ENS which has been competitive with GFS and ECM is somewhat drier.