Europe/Western Russia has enjoyed a mostly warmer than normal winter so far. However, a cold air mass develops east of the Black Sea region and is forecast to back westward and produce cold air across bare ground in key agriculture areas of Southwest Russia, the Black Sea region, and East/Southeast Europe.

The overnight GFS forecast, which is not agreed upon by all models, indicated a similar look to the stratosphere as observed during mid-January which spawned the polar vortex event of January 18-20. February forecasts are generally warm for now, but cold risk for western North America is increasing based on the potential stratospheric regime middle third of February.