The Climate Impact Company North Atlantic tropical cyclone season forecast of seasonal activity for 2021 is updated. The seasonal forecast activity is lowered slightly although the number of intense hurricanes increases from 2 to 3. The ACE index lowers sharply to 106 (from 127).

During neutral ENSO, the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is normally active. During northern hemisphere summer, influence of the convection phase of the MJO causes an increase in wet monsoon moisture and tropical cyclone risk in neighboring longitudes. The ECMWF 14-day MJO forecast indicates anomalous convection in the tropical West Pacific (now) shifts eastward and across the tropical North Atlantic in 8-14 days.