The North Atlantic SSTA analysis reveals why the seasonal CIC tropical cyclone forecast is slightly lower than other forecasters. The tropics and subtropics have cooled to near or below normal during late spring and continue to cooldown. A cooler regime in the deep tropics would lower hurricane/ACE index values.

D3/D4 drought is present across North Dakota, northwest South Dakota and into southern Canada (Fig. 1). D3/D4 drought conditions during summertime do not erode unless an interaction between the prevailing storm track and tropical moisture (or direct impact from a tropical cyclone) occurs. Interaction with tropical moisture for storms passing the northern Great Plains will have to wait until late summer. As a result, harsh drought continues in this region for the next 8-10 weeks (at least).