Historic heat continues to worsen the extreme California/Great Basin/Southwest drought region. Longer-term, the anomalous heat and dryness is likely to focus on the Northwest States.
Tropical Disturbance 92L is forecast to become a tropical storm by tomorrow night and north-northeastward into southwest Louisiana on Saturday. Northwest Gulf of Mexico waters are 85-86F which supports a hurricane. Tropical cyclone models are projecting a moderate-strength tropical storm. However, there is potential for an over-achieving system late this week in the northwest Gulf of Mexico.
Rainfall required to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has increased in the Midwest States, Northeast region and the Southeast particularly Florida. Western deficits maintain their severe dry signatures. The North Dakota deficits eased last week.
A new concern area is evolving drought in Iowa. Soil moisture is in deficit for the northern 2/3 of the state. In June so far, soil moisture trend is much drier for Iowa and southern Minnesota of the western Corn Belt.