The exceptionally warm Great Lakes will cause a warm autumn temperature bias for surrounding areas but could initiate intense lake-effect snows once winter arrives.

The western U.S. Corn Belt was under the gun for a freeze risk based on forecasts from earlie rthis week. The forecast seemed reasonable given the upstream Montana snows producinga cold air source region. But as this week's operational forecasts indicated the primary influence on the Corn Belt was warmer ahead of the cold front and wetter due to the slower movement of the front and no freeze as the big chill lagged well to the west.

The Southeast U.S. to Mid-Atlantic States continue to dry-out RAPIDLY. A significant drought is devloping in these regions. Rainfall needed to neutralize strong negative PDSI values is over 15 in. across eastern Georgia and now 12-15 in. in southern Alabama.

The combination of long duration of vividly effective dynamic forcing to produce extreme rainfall caused yet another historic rainfall episode in southeast Texas.