A very hot summer 2018 was foreshadowed by a widening dry-to-drought condition. This year widespread record wet soils are evident in the Central Plains, Midwest and East U.S. The soil moisture regime foreshadows a borderline anomalous hot summer ahead.

Once again a large "blob" of much warmer than normal ocean water in the tropics/subtropics increased available energy to cause a tropical cyclone to flourish and intensify while moving slowly to cause maximum damage due to a blocking subtropical ridge pole ward of the storm.

The atmosphere finally coupled with the equatorial East Pacific warming the past 7 weeks as demonstrated by a persistent negative phase of the southern oscillation index. The evolving El Nino climate helped to inspire heavy precipitation events.

The Bureau of Meterology/Australia annouces an EL Nino Alert today. Meanwhile 2 tropical cyclones are likely to cause damaging high wind and flooding to northeast/north and northwest portions of Australia.