Latest News

03/25/2026, 11:59 am EDT

Cooling Surface and Subsurface in the North Atlantic Tropics Coupled with 2026 El Nino Could Produce Quiet 2026 TC Season

The North Atlantic basin is marginally warmer than normal (+0.33C) and similar with this time last year. However, in the lower latitudes, the Caribbean Sea, and main development region (MDR) are somewhat cooler than last year at this time. The Gulf of Mexico basin is near +0.4C although nearly 1C cooler than one month ago. Upper ocean heat in the Gulf of Mexico and main development region (MDR) for North Atlantic hurricanes is second coolest in the 2013-26 climatology.
03/23/2026, 9:59 am EDT

Narelle To Re-Intensify; Strikes West Coast Late Week

Tropical Storm Narelle rests over the coastal northwest portion of Australia soon to move offshore and begin to redevelop. In 4-5 days, Narelle reaches category-2 or category-3 intensity moving into the northwest coast of Western Australia. Through 10 days, the West Coast region of Australia is very wet.
03/19/2026, 8:18 am EDT

The 2026 U.S. Population Weight CDD Forecast

The effect of the Middle East War on energy supply and prices increases the value of U.S. cooling degree day projections for the 2026 warm season. Provided is a monthly discussion of expectations and charts for each NOAA/EIA region of the U.S.
03/17/2026, 8:00 am EDT

A Deluge of Rain for Argentina Ahead

The latest 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast by ECM unloads heavy rain on Argentina. The wet forecast is supported, at least through the next 10 days, by an upper-level low-pressure trough off the Chilean Coast where SSTA continue much above normal adding to the risk of potential significant rainfall.