Latest News
11/16/2025, 12:19 pm EST
Typical of a La Nina climate, the Northwest U.S./Southwest Canada to North-central U.S. are usually the first winter targets for cold and snow. The NOAA/CPC risk of heavy snow ALERT for the last week of November indicates heavy snow risk for the Continental Divide and North-central U.S. likely to sustain following cold.
11/13/2025, 8:39 am EST
The approach of December brings developing and widening Great Plains snow cover, a mostly drier than normal to above normal rainfall pattern change in Brazil, and arrival of snowfall across the bare ground in the northern half of Europe.
11/12/2025, 3:43 pm EST
The outlook valid through FEB-26 includes a stormy winter across the Northern U.S. while the southern portion of the U.S. is dry. In South America, dryness generates in Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil plus Northeast Brazil. Wet weather is likely for northwestern South America.
11/11/2025, 4:44 am EST
Typhoon Fung-Wong peak intensity was 943 MB supporting a category-4 typhoon east of the Philippines. Does heat release from weakening Fung-Wong influence the polar climate mid-to-late November? Partially, but with significant help from warming over Greenland already in-place due to effects from Category-5 Major Hurricane Melissa (892 MB). Gradually, the polar region high pressure block expands and causes a cold trough in the U.S. for December.
11/07/2025, 4:30 am EST
The Climate Impact Company month 1-4 outlook valid DEC-25 through MAR-26 is updated. The forecast is trending colder. The North-central U.S. cold anomalies expand, and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic are adjusted cooler to near normal. Cold outbreaks cover the suddenly snowbound Northern U.S. in December, a January cold surge into the East U.S., and Western Canada to North-central U.S. cold (possibly reaching Texas) in February.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Anticipated Wetter Brazil Pattern Initiates in the 6-10-Day Period
A wet weather shift from Argentina and more recently central continent into Central/East Brazil initiates in the 6-10-day period according to the "most likely" mega-cluster ensemble. The wetter shift should remain in-place well through early meteorological summer 2025-26 while Argentina shifts drier.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
Is 12Z GFS Arctic Air 11-15-day Period U.S. Forecast Real?
At midday, the 12Z GFS forecasts a whopping -4 value for the East Pacific oscillation (EPO) during the 11-15-day period. Other models are averaging -2 at that timeframe, about half the strength (although still impressive). The strong (-4) index supports arctic air involvement and on day-15, 12Z GFS indicates zero for morning low temperatures from Colorado to South Dakota. Is the forecast overstated?