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09/08/2026, 5:14 am EDT
Last week, the Nino12 SSTA warmed to +4.6C and Nino3 SSTA surged to +3.5C combining for the warmest equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperature anomalies on record. In the Nino34 SSTA region, where ENSO phase is assessed, conventional Nino34 SSTA is +2.7C qualifying as Super El Nino while the new relative Nino34 SSTA index is +1.8C just below the Super El Nino threshold.
09/07/2026, 10:20 am EDT
The end of August soil moisture decile anomalies analysis from Australia Bureau of Meteorology reveals dryness developing on the East Coast while away from the coast soil moisture is considerably higher than normal for a large area.
09/04/2026, 4:49 am EDT
ECMWF is most aggressive with the ongoing rains in Southeast/East Brazil. The outlook is supported by ongoing negative Antarctic oscillation (-AAO) which implies semi-permanent low-pressure troughs in the middle latitudes. ECMWF projects a semi-permanent low-pressure trough east of Argentina located across an area of relative cool SSTA. Meanwhile, east of Brazil, a marine heat wave (MHW) is expected to strengthen. The upper trough entrains increased low-level atmosphere moisture across the MHW driving a wetter Southeast/East Brazil climate likely to last through spring.
09/01/2026, 4:40 am EDT
The best initialization and consequently seasonal (SEP/OCT/NOV 2026) outlook of global SSTA is provided by the National Multi-model Ensemble. Of course, El Nino is vividly apparent in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean fueled by the warmest upper ocean heat on record. Most dynamic Nino34 SSTA forecasts maintain record-strength El Nino by mid-to-late Q4/2026. El Nino 2026-27 influence on climate may have similarities to the last intense episode observed in 2015-16 due to the oceanic warming taking place across vast mid-latitude regions not apparent during previous historic El Nino episodes observed in 1982-83 and 1997-98.
08/31/2026, 5:08 am EDT
“Ring of fire” severe thunderstorms, possibly derecho-style fold through the eastern Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States tomorrow and Wednesday. The clash of hot weather with the jet stream not far to the north is the recipe for fast-moving big wind-producing severe storms.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Tropical Trouble Brewing Days 11-15?
GFS and ECM are interested in generating heavy rain associated with a tropical cyclone during the 11-15-day period in the eastern Gulf of America and the Atlantic Seaboard. The consistency of this longer-range forecast is increasing. Reliability increases substantially if the threat appears in the 6-10-day forecast by early next week. However, for now, as calendar summer ends, an uptick in the dormant North Atlantic tropical cyclone season is expected.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
U.S. Daily Report: Summer 2026 is hottest on record.
Summer 2026 was the hottest on record in the 1895-2026 U.S. climatology. Included were the hottest summer on record for Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. All 48 contiguous states were warmer than normal except Indiana. MUCH ABOVE normal to RECORD warm was observed in 27 states. The national rainfall ranking was in the driest third during the 132-year history. Regional differences were vast ranking from top ten driest on record in Oregon and California plus South Carolina while the entire Ohio Valley was MUCH WETTER than normal.