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02/09/2025, 7:40 pm EST
The Australia season 1-4 ahead outlook is updated. The forecast is valid for meteorological autumn 2025 through summer 2025-26. The forecast is based on an ENSO climate favoring La Nina, neutral Indian Ocean dipole, and the influence of marine heat waves either side of the continent. Forecast highlights include a persistent wet climate in southeastern Australia likely through next summer while next winter is warmer than normal.
02/06/2025, 1:53 pm EST
Utilizing CFS V2 extended range forecasts of the stratosphere there is not an obvious sign of an emerging sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event during late FEB/early MAR. The ECM forecast is not available. HOWEVER, a major slowdown of the global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) is in the forecast through mid-March. When -GLAAM occurs, the mid-latitude upper-level pattern has the tendency to produce amplified low-pressure troughs.
02/05/2025, 12:57 pm EST
A large area of snow is forecast to the north of a slowly developing low pressure system, most intense off the Northeast Coast, this weekend. The NBM model forecasts 4-8 in. of snow in the Midwest which looks a bit high, and a more aggressive snowfall forecast, for New England, especially near the coast as the storm strengthens offshore early Sunday. There is a freezing rain/ice accretion risk across a large area most likely causing impacts over west-central Pennsylvania.
02/02/2025, 11:43 am EST
Ongoing drought risk across Argentina and Brazil as mid-meteorological summer 2024-25 has passed remains intense. Forecast models have generally been over-forecasting rainfall, especially in Brazil. During January, anomalous heat dominated Argentina. Despite periodic rainfall, mid-summer heat accelerates drying soils.
01/31/2025, 9:25 am EST
Europe/Western Russia has enjoyed a mostly warmer than normal winter so far. However, a cold air mass develops east of the Black Sea region and is forecast to back westward and produce cold air across bare ground in key agriculture areas of Southwest Russia, the Black Sea region, and East/Southeast Europe.
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Upper Air Pattern Changes: Wetter Argentina
This week, strong subtropical high pressure stretching across mid-continent from marine heat waves either side of South Americ render extreme heat from Argentina to Southeast Brazil. However, latest forecasts split the subtropical ridge allowing weak low pressure to form over Bolivia which lifts tropical rains from northwest continent southeastward into Argentina during the medium range.
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Subsurface Moderately Cold in Equatorial East Pacific as La Nina Likely to Linger well into NH Spring
Since 1979 the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean to the east of the Dateline has produced peak subsurface cool signatures during La Nina, most dramatically during late last century with more frequent but less intense peak subsurface cool signatures during La Nina in this century. The JAN-25 subsurface cool anomaly was -1.32 and the coolest monthly signature from the 2024-25 cold ENSO episode.