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01/24/2025, 8:19 am EST
During mid-January, an arctic air mass formed in Northern Canada and Greenland. After the arctic air mass formed, a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) episode emerged over Canada. The warming and expanding stratosphere quickly compensated for by a cooling troposphere beneath, as a polar vortex formed in central North America.
01/22/2025, 6:02 am EST
A drying soil moisture trend is established across parts of West and Southwest Russia into Eastern Europe plus west/southwest Italy to Portugal and Northwest Africa. Last week, a very dry pattern stretched across most of Europe and Western Russia. The dryness is attributed to general high pressure aloft downwind a large marine heatwave in the east/northeast North Atlantic. The 15-day outlook maintains dryness across Eastern Europe and Southwest Russia.
01/20/2025, 2:08 pm EST
During December, La Nina onset emerged as both the surface and subsurface equatorial East Pacific shifted very cool. However, since that time, a transient Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) weakened the upwelling trade winds across the eastern equatorial Pacific and surface waters have warmed to borderline La Nina conditions in the Nino34 SSTA zone.
01/18/2025, 7:24 am EST
As the weekend begins, a plethora of weather watch, warnings, and advisories are issued with many more ahead into early next week. Currently, an Extreme Cold Warning is issued for the northern Great Plains. In the warning area, temperatures routinely collapse to -20F (or colder) with wind chills of -40F (or colder) by Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is issued into the central Great Plains, certain to expand southward later today.
01/15/2025, 11:26 am EST
West of Chile a new and potent marine heatwave (MHW) has formed. The northeastern South Pacific MHW is intensifying rapidly. A long-standing MHW in the Caribbean Sea remains impressive. Aloft, each MHW has an influence on the upper air pattern. The new MHW off the Chilean Coast is well-correlated to an amplified high-pressure area forecast by AIFS through the next 15 days. High pressure also rests over the warm Caribbean Sea.
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Snow Covered Northwest/North Gulf Region Hit By Severe Cold
Several inches to one half foot of snow accumulated over the coastal Southeast Texas region yesterday with as much as 10.5 in. of snow in Lafayette, LA. Much of southern Louisiana received 5-10 in. of snow. Overnight, skies are clearing, and conditions are set for record cold mornings.
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Madden Julian Oscillation Eastward Shift Should Break East U.S. Cold
The MJO shift through the eastern Indian Ocean tropics to north of Australia and West Pacific tropics is indicated by the MJO 115-day forecast phase_3, phase_4, and phase_5. When MJO enters the phases listed during mid-winter a milder Pacific maritime influence is generated on U.S. climate.