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02/16/2026, 11:58 am EST
The 7-day percent of normal rainfall observations identify the expected eastward shift of patchy rainfall across parts of Argentina and Brazil. This weekend and early next week, an upper trough spawns heavy rain in East Brazil as the forecast shifts much wetter.
02/12/2026, 9:29 am EST
The 30-day percent of normal rainfall observations identify a steady very dry signature centered on Uruguay and vicinity with a patchy wet bias across west and south portions of Argentina plus East Brazil. The 7-day observations are drier except wetter Central Argentina, Northeast Brazil, and parts of Brazil due east of Paraguay.
02/10/2026, 11:31 am EST
January 2026 ranked 24th warmest of the 132-year history across the U.S. The month was characterized by prohibitive warmth for much of the month followed by an arctic outbreak later in the month across the East. Despite the chill, Eastern States managed only top 25% coldest January (at best).
02/08/2026, 1:25 pm EST
Dramatic storm tracks are almost always associated with influence of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO). The intense Southwest/South Europe storm track of the past 2-3 weeks is directly related to an eastward shift of the MJO across the equatorial East Pacific to tropical Africa.
02/06/2026, 11:29 am EST
Torrid dryness across Northeast Argentina continues during early February. The outlook into early next week maintains the dry pattern. However, an upper trough approaches from the west causing significant rain in Argentina during the medium range. The forecast trend is wetter.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
U.S. Weather Pattern Features Significant Increase in Hazards
The U.S. weather pattern shifts to problematic with a large array of hazards focused on the western half of the U.S. Featured are widespread wind and snow advisories/watch/warnings including a Red Flag Warning across much of the western Great Plains. Widespread dense fog stretches from Dallas to Cleveland. An offshore storm brings high wind near the Northeast U.S. Corridor.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
Oceanic La Nina Ends, Subsurface Warming Validates El Nino Forecasts for Mid-year. But! Atmosphere Not Responding Yet.
The subsurface eastern equatorial Pacific continues too steadily warm. A Kelvin Wave moving east across the Dateline during early December reached waters off northwest South America recently while a second Kelvin Wave emerged near and east of the Dateline and is drifting eastward. The atmosphere remains slow to respond as southern oscillation index (SOI) stays positive and 15-day forecasts maintain the positive phase.