June 2026 ranked 28th warmest in the 132-year historical record. The anomalous warmth was motivated by MUCH ABOVE normal across the southwest quadrant of the U.S., Northeast Corridor Coast, and Florida. Only Montana was slightly cooler than normal. The ongoing intense marine heatwave off the southwest coast of North America continues to provide the warm temperature bias to the Southwest U.S. while a much warmer western North Atlantic basin helped the East Coast shift warmer.

ECM “monthlies” maintain warmer than normal risk into the autumn season but due to El Nino influence begin a wet pattern across Southwest Europe next month likely to expand during autumn to help ease the drought.

A cold front pushing into extreme heat was the catalyst for exceptionally violent severe weather outbreaks extending from the Ohio Valley to New York City on Friday and throughout the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday. NOAA/SPC tallied 1,602 severe weather events/reports for the 2 days.

In Europe, hot weather is regenerating across Southwest Europe in the 5-day outlook, surging northward in the 6-10-day forecast, and broadening across most of Central and Southern Europe in the 11-15-day projection. The ECM 15-day rainfall forecast emphasizes dryness over France and combined with intense heat drought will worsen dramatically.

The week-3 forecasts are cooler in the East according to most AI models and with weak MJO phase_7 and moderate -NAO there is some support for that projection. HOWEVER, during mid-summer with a vast hot air source region formed during June across the Southwest U.S., the AIFS and ECM Ensembles combine to emphasize the Southwest U.S. high pressure system entering week-3 muting an East Coast trough. CIC is siding with more impactful heat for week-3/week-4 forecasts including the Great Plains week-4.