Latest News
03/17/2026, 8:00 am EDT
The latest 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast by ECM unloads heavy rain on Argentina. The wet forecast is supported, at least through the next 10 days, by an upper-level low-pressure trough off the Chilean Coast where SSTA continue much above normal adding to the risk of potential significant rainfall.
03/15/2026, 9:39 am EDT
About 75% of the U.S. is in a dry-to-drought soil moisture condition as meteorological spring arrives. Combining the month of February during 2000, 2012, and 2025 yields a similar Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) regime to FEB-26.
03/13/2026, 5:10 am EDT
The ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast indicates an evolving storm track stretching across the Mediterranean Sea and reaching the Middle East. The wet weather pattern which also affects North Africa is supported by an elongated upper-level low-pressure trough.
03/12/2026, 5:33 am EDT
A major high wind event extends from the Northern Rockies to the Midwest U.S. today and tonight featuring wind gusts above hurricane force in the northwest Great Plains today, near 70 mph Midwest tonight, and gusting 55-65 mph in the Ohio Valley midday tomorrow. A second storm brings wind gusts to 45-60 mph Sunday night across the Midwest and Ohio Valley shifting across the Northeast Corridor with severe storms on Monday.
03/11/2026, 4:44 am EDT
A combination of zonal flow in the 1-5-day and 11-15-day period and titanic Southwest U.S. high pressure ridging in the 6-10-day period leaves the west and southwest Great Plains without rain and increasingly very warm in the latest ECM 15-day forecast. Texas to Oklahoma shift wetter in the 16-30-day period while the western Great Plains stay dry and very warm. U.S. hard red winter wheat becomes a hot spot for drought development.
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How Hawaiian “Kona Storm” Shaped March 15-16 Severe Weather
A low latitude cutoff low-pressure system west-northwest of Hawaii entrained tropical moisture during the past week causing heavy thunderstorms across Hawaii and the attendant latent heat release amplified the downstream upper ridge pattern which is bringing record warmth to the West U.S. To compensate for the upper ridge, a deep trough formed in the East-central U.S. early this week causing a widespread severe weather outbreak.
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Are Marine Heatwaves Correlated to the Upper Air Pattern Causing Sensible Weather?
Two marine heatwaves (MHW) are located off the U.S. and Baja California West Coast. MHW NEP25A reached record aerial coverage last autumn although weaker now while MHW NEP25B formed late last year, persisted all winter, and strengthened. Meanwhile, the Gulf of Mexico SSTA is +1.35C ranking in the top 1% warmest (since 1982).







