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09/08/2026, 5:14 am EDT
Last week, the Nino12 SSTA warmed to +4.6C and Nino3 SSTA surged to +3.5C combining for the warmest equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperature anomalies on record. In the Nino34 SSTA region, where ENSO phase is assessed, conventional Nino34 SSTA is +2.7C qualifying as Super El Nino while the new relative Nino34 SSTA index is +1.8C just below the Super El Nino threshold.
09/07/2026, 10:20 am EDT
The end of August soil moisture decile anomalies analysis from Australia Bureau of Meteorology reveals dryness developing on the East Coast while away from the coast soil moisture is considerably higher than normal for a large area.
09/04/2026, 4:49 am EDT
ECMWF is most aggressive with the ongoing rains in Southeast/East Brazil. The outlook is supported by ongoing negative Antarctic oscillation (-AAO) which implies semi-permanent low-pressure troughs in the middle latitudes. ECMWF projects a semi-permanent low-pressure trough east of Argentina located across an area of relative cool SSTA. Meanwhile, east of Brazil, a marine heat wave (MHW) is expected to strengthen. The upper trough entrains increased low-level atmosphere moisture across the MHW driving a wetter Southeast/East Brazil climate likely to last through spring.
09/01/2026, 4:40 am EDT
The best initialization and consequently seasonal (SEP/OCT/NOV 2026) outlook of global SSTA is provided by the National Multi-model Ensemble. Of course, El Nino is vividly apparent in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean fueled by the warmest upper ocean heat on record. Most dynamic Nino34 SSTA forecasts maintain record-strength El Nino by mid-to-late Q4/2026. El Nino 2026-27 influence on climate may have similarities to the last intense episode observed in 2015-16 due to the oceanic warming taking place across vast mid-latitude regions not apparent during previous historic El Nino episodes observed in 1982-83 and 1997-98.
08/31/2026, 5:08 am EDT
“Ring of fire” severe thunderstorms, possibly derecho-style fold through the eastern Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States tomorrow and Wednesday. The clash of hot weather with the jet stream not far to the north is the recipe for fast-moving big wind-producing severe storms.
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Warm U.S. AND Europe HDD Forecasts Winter 2026-27
Western Europe observes warmer than normal winter season. A consensus of HDD forecasts for the NOV-MAR cold season reveals that Western Europe is warmer than the 10-year normal for November through January, near the 10-year normal in February, and near the 30-year normal in March.
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East Pacific Tropical Cyclones Affecting North America Upper Air Pattern
Hurricane Lowell moves north, to just west of Kauai tonight, and weakens slowly to a tropical storm while turning westward later this week while Tropical Storm Marie drifts northwestward staying well west of California. Additional tropical systems are possible in the East Pacific this week. The latent heat release from the attendant convection of each system causes the high-pressure system to the north to amplify this week and shift slightly eastward in the 6-10-day-period maintaining strength as additional latent heat from tropical/subtropical convection to the south continues.