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10/08/2026, 6:00 am EDT

Hurricane Isaias Should Reach Category-3 Major Hurricane Status Tomorrow

Overnight, Isaias gained intensity and is moving slightly faster. Morning weather satellite view reveals a concentric strong thunderstorm signature with additional heavy convection extending to the east plus a “tail” into the lower latitudes. This signature indicates additional intensification is likely. The upper shear is immense northwest and north of the hurricane. However, the upper shear is not directly affecting Isaias (yet).
10/06/2026, 12:12 pm EDT

New ECMWF Climate Forecasts for DEC/JAN/FEB 2026-27 (North America, Europe, South America, and Australia)

Most striking regarding the latest ECMWF “monthlies” DEC/JAN/FEB 2026-27 climate outlook across North America are the “atmospheric rivers” projected into California and the Southeast/East U.S. Coast and the exceptionally mild Canadian climate which will keep the Northern U.S. without snow cover much of the winter season. The Southern U.S. storm track can generate locally regional chilly air masses.
10/05/2026, 2:06 pm EDT

Super El Nino Continues to Intensify!

The upper ocean heat anomalies from September 2026 continued to warm to unprecedented levels. Anomalies are, by far, the strongest on record and identify the exceptional potential energy to fuel Super El Nino. The weekly SSTA observations in the Nino regions (also) convey the steady warming to record levels. The Nino12 SSTA region, off the northwest coast of South America, is at an unheard of +5.1C anomaly last week.
10/02/2026, 9:02 am EDT

Examples of Cool/Warm SSTA Regions and Climate Influences

A lot of inquiries during recent days on influence of marine heatwaves and their influence on regional climate. The big topic right now is Super El Nino. But! Increasingly, large areas of oceanic warming (and cooling) are having significant influences on regional climate. Let’s review where these warm (and cool) pools of ocean water are located and their regional influence on climate.
09/29/2026, 8:40 am EDT

Record warm Nino34, Nino3, and Nino12 SSTA Still Warming

The Nino SSTA regions in the east-central and far east equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to warm. Currently, Nino34, Nino3, and Nino12 have shattered previous record warm SSTA produced by the Super El Nino episodes of 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.