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02/12/2026, 9:29 am EST
The 30-day percent of normal rainfall observations identify a steady very dry signature centered on Uruguay and vicinity with a patchy wet bias across west and south portions of Argentina plus East Brazil. The 7-day observations are drier except wetter Central Argentina, Northeast Brazil, and parts of Brazil due east of Paraguay.
02/10/2026, 11:31 am EST
January 2026 ranked 24th warmest of the 132-year history across the U.S. The month was characterized by prohibitive warmth for much of the month followed by an arctic outbreak later in the month across the East. Despite the chill, Eastern States managed only top 25% coldest January (at best).
02/08/2026, 1:25 pm EST
Dramatic storm tracks are almost always associated with influence of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO). The intense Southwest/South Europe storm track of the past 2-3 weeks is directly related to an eastward shift of the MJO across the equatorial East Pacific to tropical Africa.
02/06/2026, 11:29 am EST
Torrid dryness across Northeast Argentina continues during early February. The outlook into early next week maintains the dry pattern. However, an upper trough approaches from the west causing significant rain in Argentina during the medium range. The forecast trend is wetter.
02/06/2026, 8:41 am EST
Europe East selected cities (Berlin, Munich, Vienna, and Milan) observed an exceptionally cold January with HDD count averaging 13% colder than normal while Europe West selected cities (Glasgow, Heathrow, Paris, Dusseldorf, and Berlin) were much closer to normal.
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MJO Strengthens, Influences Australia/South America Climate
The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) has been active and a key contributor to climate patterns of the past several months. The MJO trend continues through mid-to-late February. Models indicate a strengthening phase_3 (East Indian Ocean/West Maritime Continent) over the next 10 days shifting east to phase_4 (Eastern Maritime Continent) in the 11-15-day period.
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Support To Keep U.S. Warm Increasing; Comments on New NOAA RONI Index
GFS indicates a progressive MJO toward the Dateline in the 8-14/11-15-day period. If so, ongoing U.S. warmth continues and could become stronger. Yesterday, NOAA introduced the Relative Operational Nino Index (RONI) which provides a new Nino34 index accounting for the historical general warming of the global tropics. But! Does this new index effectively identify ENSO pattern change and intensity?