02/22/2024, 8:03 am EST
Current soil moisture conditions across primary agriculture regions feature wet conditions in Europe/Western Russia and much of Asia. Western Australia is in drought while eastern sections are unexpectedly wet despite the El Nino summer. Argentina trend is wetter again while many parts of Brazil stay in drought. In the Midwest U.S. the 2023 drought is hanging on.
02/20/2024, 4:03 am EST
AI FORECASTNET V2 is forecasting a new arctic air mass generating over Alaska and Western Canada due to additional stratospheric warming in the medium range. A careful eye on whether this new arctic mass may release into the Western U.S. in the extended range. Meanwhile, despite the warmth in U.S. and Europe for late winter, much of Asia is quite cold!
02/15/2024, 7:43 pm EST
The Climate Impact Company constructed analog 6-month precipitation forecast for the U.S. coupled with current soil moisture and trend yields the second half of summer U.S. drought risk areas. Most prominent and agreeable to the NOAA CAS forecast is Georgia and Florida followed by Texas. The CIC-CA projection adds the Northwest U.S. and northern Great Lakes. The Midwest U.S. is likely to avoid a 2024 drought.
02/12/2024, 5:26 am EST
Stratospheric warming leading to evolution of a large arctic air mass remains in the forecast for Eurasia. Latest indications are the air mass releases southeastward into China in the 1-15-day period rather than cross-polar into North America. Consequently, the U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast is revised milder for the second half of February.
02/11/2024, 5:33 pm EST
Conflicting signals in February regarding ENSO as sharp negative phase southern oscillation index (-SOI) reveals the El Nino climate for the 2023-24 episode is peaking while the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean is cooling rapidly as ocean warming to sustain El Nino is fading fast. The outlook maintains a rapid decline in El Nino intensity during the next 2-4 months with neutral ENSO likely by MAY/JUN followed by further Pacific cooling causing La Nina to form by JUL/AUG. La Nina may last into 2026.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
- The U.S. pattern is fast-moving and produces dramatic thermal contrast from one air mass to the next. An example of the extremes is indicated by ECMWF for next Tuesday afternoon when arctic air surges into Southwest Canada featuring temperatures of -20F to -30F while ahead of the arctic front record warm low 80’s extend to Kansas.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
- Climate Impact Company will be launching ongoing AI-oriented forecast products. The purpose is mainly comparison purposes between lead operational models and the AI-generated forecasts. The initial product is focused on day-10 which identifies when pattern change becomes most important to commodity markets. AI-generated forecasts are (absolutely) not a replacement for standard operational models. They are a tool to help make better forecasts only.