Searing heat remains in the forecast for Europe during the last 10 days of June. The hot weather episode is hotter than 2 recent events (6/18 and 5/26). Paris, France is above 100F all week. The 15-day forecasts are very dry and hot accelerating drought concerns. Climate signals indicate the heat should ease in the 11-15-day period.

Forecast models continue to make the case for developing and intensifying drought across much of Europe given continued hot and mostly dry 15-day forecasts and 16-30-day projections.

Remnants of a potent tropical wave are located over Southern Texas, and the attendant low-pressure area may drift off the Central Texas Coast midweek and become a tropical depression before moving back inland the northwest coast of the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Regardless, this system enhances an extreme rainfall event forecast for the length of the Texas Coast the next 3 days and East Texas to Mississippi for THU/FRI. NOAA/WPC indicates potential for 15+ inches of rain near and east of Houston this week with 5-10 in. from Corpus Christi, TX to Jackson, MS.

Although recent Australia climate was drier, the generally wet pattern of May/early June is likely to resume the next 2-4 weeks due to persistent positive phase Antarctic Oscillation(+AO)/Southern Annular Mode (+SAM) which is forcing wet upper troughs to navigate Australia and prevent drying effects from a developing El Nino climate. The drying effects from El Nino arrive later winter.

The second warmest meteorological spring on record was observed during MAR/APR/MAY 2026. The warmest on record was observed in 2012, the year of a prohibitive drought. All-time record-warmth was observed in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas for meteorological spring. The remainder of the contiguous U.S. was MUCH ABOVE normal except marginally ABOVE normal for the Upper Midwest to New England States.