Latest News
05/05/2026, 9:24 am EDT
ECMWF broadens high pressure across the U.S. centered on the Great Plains later this month. Support from other models is favoring this solution although some AI models re-cool the East. The sensible weather is widespread anomalous warmth and increasing Great plains hot weather risk. The Southwest U.S. encounters early season clouds/thundershowers.
05/04/2026, 5:28 am EDT
The updated Climate Impact Company summer 2026 outlook indicates a hotter than normal summer season across much of the U.S., especially the Northwest to California and Gulf States while wet climate suppresses anomalous heat risk in the Midwest. Drought expands northwestward in the West and develops Mid-south to Texas later in the summer season.
04/30/2026, 12:17 pm EDT
During May, D2-D4 drought conditions develop in North Dakota and expand by 3-7% in South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma. The weeklies forecast for May indicate each state in the Great Plains is generally drier than normal with best chance of thundershowers later in the month when the pattern turns warmer than normal.
04/28/2026, 4:45 pm EDT
As the upper trough deepens in the East next week, a compensating upper ridge crests over Southwest Canada. Copious mid-to-high-level mountain snow melts with peak warming early next week. Serious flooding is possible in this scenario!
04/23/2026, 8:28 am EDT
According to NOAA, aerial coverage of global marine heatwaves (MHW) is 27%. The forecast for aerial coverage from early this year, valid for March, was 23%. Consequently, MHW presence is over-achieving. NOAA is forecasting MHW aerial coverage to increase to 40% later this year, in part due to El Nino.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Update: U.S. Population Weight CDD Forecast May-September 2026
The Climate Impact Company U.S. population weight CDD forecast for the 2026 warm season (Fig. 1) averages near or slightly below normal. The MAY/JUN (national) forecast is warm, near the 10-year normal, but lacking extreme heat as observed during MAY/JUN 2024 and JUN 2025. The JUL 2026 forecast is slightly below the 10-year normal and similar with the past 2 mid-summer(s). The AUG/SEP 2026 forecast is similar with 2024 and much warmer than last AUG. The hot bias for the warm season 2026 is in the West with marginal warmth in the high population East Coast.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
Comparing AI Vs. Dynamic Models 2-Meter Temperature Forecasts North America and Europe
AI models (7) outperform dynamic models (5) in both the 6-10-day and 11-15-day timescales for North America by small margins. In Europe, AI models edge-out dynamic models in both time periods. Climate Impact Company regards 0.75-0.80 as a good skill score for 6-10-day forecasts and 0.55-0.60 as desirable in the 11-15-day period.