Latest News
05/22/2026, 8:44 am EDT
The 2026 East Pacific basin tropical cyclone season is forecast above too much above normal activity. A large mass of unusually warm surface and subsurface water is present off the Southwest Coast of North America and coupled with a developing vigorous El Nino should provide an environment exceptionally supportive of many dangerous storms.
05/19/2026, 8:49 am EDT
Combining GFS and ECM yields a heavy rain weather pattern evolving this week and extending into next week yielding 7+ inches of rain in East Texas to Southwest Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana. The forecast is made increasingly convincing by a potentially eastward shifting active Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) as forecast by GFS.
05/17/2026, 10:07 am EDT
The NEW relative SSTA analysis across the Pacific basin reveals neutral ENSO as measured within the Nino34 SSTA region. Conversely, the standard global SSTA analysis reveals moderate El Nino has formed. As of late April, multivariate ENSO index was -0.6, indicating a lingering La Nina climate.
05/14/2026, 4:58 am EDT
We are experiencing elements of the ENSO springtime predictability barrier, specifically, lack of a sustained atmosphere-to-ocean link to force an El Nino climate. The equatorial oceanic warming is there but the atmospheric reflection lags.
05/13/2026, 12:25 pm EDT
El Nino onset helps to inspire sharp upper-level low-pressure troughs in the subtropics to take advantage of the much warmer than normal Southeast Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and tropical East Pacific SSTA patterns causing widespread low latitude heavy rains. Latent heat release poleward warms the atmosphere near the U.S./Canada border causing a warmer/drier pattern for the Northern U.S. later this month.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Wet Weather South AND East Through the Memorial Day Weekend
Heavy rain risk extends from East Texas and Louisiana to the Ohio Valley and eastward through the weekend. Flood risk is highest in Ohio Today, Texas tomorrow, and Louisiana on Sunday.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
Northern U.S. Drought Expansion/Southern U.S. Drought Erosion (NOAA Outlook) Unfolds in Week 2-4 Forecast
The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates erosion of much of the Southern U.S. drought erodes while Northern drought expands. The pattern is developing in the week 2-4 outlook according to ECM "weeklies".