Latest News

07/22/2026, 5:19 am EDT

Regenerating Hot/Dry High-pressure Ridge Biased Eastward

Soil moisture anomalies analysis reveals a large dry-to-drought scenario across Europe. The core of the drought is in France and Western Romania. The 10-day rainfall anomaly outlook by ECMWF indicates widespread drier than normal conditions. Week 2-4 forecasts rebuild Central Europe heat intensifying drought.
07/20/2026, 5:47 am EDT

Heavy Rain Southeast Brazil Ahead!

A classic El Nino style climate pattern emerges in late July...excessive rainfall in Southeast Brazil while areas to the north are arid. Included is ongoing unusual warmth for central continent.
07/17/2026, 1:47 pm EDT

Does The Week 2-4 Outlook in the U.S. Follow El Nino Late Summer Climatology?

1997 and 2015 produced rapidly strengthening intense El Nino climate patterns. In the U.S., the temperature bias during August is cool across most of the eastern half of the U.S. while dryness dominates the Gulf States and Mid-Atlantic region. The 2015 El Nino weights twice due to the much warmer global oceans compared to 1997. In 2026, global oceans are much warmer than 2015 lending a warm bias to the cool analog.
07/16/2026, 4:34 am EDT

Record Strength El Nino Ahead for Later 2026!

Relative Nino34 SSTA forecasts using the NOAA CFS V2, ECMWF, and POAMA outlooks each indicate a record strength El Nino for later this year easily surpassing the R-N34 SSTA of +2.41 observed in November 2015.