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09/20/2026, 7:40 pm EDT
The 15-day outlooks are consistent with expansive wetter than normal conditions across Southern Brazil and Paraguay with ECM ENS the most aggressive (wet) forecast. Note that recent rainfall has been abundant through a narrow channel stretching from Northern Chile to central continent to the Brazil Southeast Coast. Either side of the wet weather very dry conditions have persisted.
09/17/2026, 1:52 pm EDT
About 80% of the U.S. is encountering dry-to-drought conditions as calendar summer ends. Amazingly, the wet weather of a Super El Nino will wipe out most of the drought during Q4/2026 except the Northwest States where drought is likely to gain strength.
09/16/2026, 8:46 am EDT
Overnight, both the GFS and ECM operational models project heavy rain associated with a tropical cyclone during the 11-15-day period in the Gulf of America and the Southeast U.S. Coast plus Florida. The 11-15-day forecast indicates potential for a high impact event gaining substantial confidence if the same projection is in the 6-10-day forecast late this weekend. GFS develops a system in the Northwest Caribbean Sea late next week and projects a stalling hurricane in the eastern Gulf of America during the last 5 days of the month. ECM develops a system in the Northeast Gulf during the 11-15-day period.
09/11/2026, 5:02 am EDT
ECMWF issued new probabilistic climate forecasts yesterday. Super El Nino peak is projected for DEC/JAN/FEB 2026-27. A review of precipitation patterns, anticipated by ECMWF, is provided. Included are vigorous California and U.S. East Coast storm tracks and likelihood of Northern Brazil drought/Southeast Brazil flooding rains.
09/10/2026, 11:49 am EDT
An extremely intense positive phase of global atmospheric angular momentum (+GLAAM) developed in early July, and the strongest intensity so far is projected to emerge during middle September.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Late Week Northeast Corridor Coastal Storm!
A cold front brings rain and sustains cool weather across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region this week. The front stalls offshore and a low-pressure system develop and stalls and then create a large swath of high wind, coastal flooding, and moderate-to-heavy rain for late week/next weekend most impressively projected by ECM.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
Strong +IOD Emerging; Lasts into Early 2027
The daily Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index is +1.01C indicating presence of strong positive phase which initiated several weeks ago although the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) was +0.68C for AUG-26 suggesting +IOD may have formed during later July. Australia Bureau of Meteorology indicates +IOD will continue through Q4/2026 with an average index of +0.8C rivaling 2023 (+09C), 2019 (+0.9C), 2018 (+0.6C), and 1997 (+1.2C). Only 2023 and 1997 +IOD regimes were concurrent with El Nino episodes.