About 80% of the U.S. is encountering dry-to-drought conditions as calendar summer ends. Amazingly, the wet weather of a Super El Nino will wipe out most of the drought during Q4/2026 except the Northwest States where drought is likely to gain strength.

Overnight, both the GFS and ECM operational models project heavy rain associated with a tropical cyclone during the 11-15-day period in the Gulf of America and the Southeast U.S. Coast plus Florida. The 11-15-day forecast indicates potential for a high impact event gaining substantial confidence if the same projection is in the 6-10-day forecast late this weekend. GFS develops a system in the Northwest Caribbean Sea late next week and projects a stalling hurricane in the eastern Gulf of America during the last 5 days of the month. ECM develops a system in the Northeast Gulf during the 11-15-day period.

ECMWF issued new probabilistic climate forecasts yesterday. Super El Nino peak is projected for DEC/JAN/FEB 2026-27. A review of precipitation patterns, anticipated by ECMWF, is provided. Included are vigorous California and U.S. East Coast storm tracks and likelihood of Northern Brazil drought/Southeast Brazil flooding rains.

An extremely intense positive phase of global atmospheric angular momentum (+GLAAM) developed in early July, and the strongest intensity so far is projected to emerge during middle September.

Last week, the Nino12 SSTA warmed to +4.6C and Nino3 SSTA surged to +3.5C combining for the warmest equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperature anomalies on record. In the Nino34 SSTA region, where ENSO phase is assessed, conventional Nino34 SSTA is +2.7C qualifying as Super El Nino while the new relative Nino34 SSTA index is +1.8C just below the Super El Nino threshold.