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02/04/2026, 4:56 am EST
Extreme dryness (and heat) has afflicted Northeast Argentina during the past 2 weeks. However, changes are on the way as the 8-14-day forecast equally weighting GFS and ECM shifts heavy rain across the Northeast Argentina dry zone while East Brazil turns drier. The catalyst to the recent heavy rains across northwest and west continent is El Nino-like warming of the ocean surface off the northwest coast of South America. The rains shift eastward later next week.
02/02/2026, 12:36 pm EST
The coldest day of winter in the Northeast is projected for Saturday. During the afternoon, the 12Z GFS indicates temperatures not reaching 10F in Boston while wind chill is routinely 10-15F below zero (during the afternoon). The Sunday morning low temperatures are near zero in Boston. The Boston heating degree day for Saturday is probably around 60 with an effective HDD of 70-75.
02/01/2026, 6:48 am EST
A sizeable change in the Pacific North America (PNA) index is forecast by all models over the next 2 weeks. The persistent strong positive phase fueling the warm and dry West U.S. climate for much of January finally breaks down. Next week, the PNA pattern shifts to negative phase supportive of a cooler and wetter West U.S. low-pressure trough pattern. In response, the strengthening negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO), fueling East U.S. cold fades mid-month likely causing a cold retreat.
01/29/2026, 5:08 am EST
In South America, several weather hazards are indicated in the GFS 10-day precipitation outlook. Developing heavy rains last through the next 10 days east of Paraguay to the Southeast Brazil Coast. Meanwhile, Northern Argentina is dry and extremely hot through 10 days. The exception is an area of heavy thunderstorms in Central Argentina during the 6-10-day period.
01/28/2026, 9:07 am EST
Well-documented is the cold influence on North America and Eurasia climate by an ongoing intense negative arctic oscillation (-AO). Additionally, -AO has inspired a vigorous Southern Europe storm track most recently associated with Winter Storm “Kristin” and effects on Portugal and Spain. -AO continues well into February maintaining the energetic Southern Europe storm track.
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Major East Pacific Subsurface Warming…La Nina to End, El Nino Ahead
Significant warming is observed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean subsurface during late January. The observation and trend support a rapid ending to La Nina in February with increased risk of El Nino developing during the northern hemisphere spring season.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
Did Oceanic Forcing Cause Warmer Pattern-change Across North America?
During January, a subsurface warm Kelvin Wave shifted across the equatorial East Pacific recently reaching the northwest coast of South America. The Nino12 region off the northwest coast of South America warmed 1.1C during the past 30 days. The majority of global SSTA forecast models are forecasting El Nino onset during northern hemisphere spring. The onset of that ENSO change has occurred and may have contributed to the sensible weather pattern change across North America as mid-February approaches.