Nationally, meteorological summer 2022 ranked 3rd hottest in the 1895-2022 climatology. Interestingly, the monthly U.S. population weight CDD (according to NOAA) are not nearly as impressive with June and July ranking 8th hottest of the past 20 years and August ranking 9th hottest for the same period. The explanation is twofold as modern-day hot summer would rank very hot in a cooler 128-year climatology. Note how the climatology warms when comparing the 30-year, 20-year and 10-year climatology.

West/Central U.S. drought is expected to expand eastward during Q4/2022. The strongest expansion is in the Mid-south/Gulf States based on the OCT-22 to FEB-23 Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast. The U.S. drought pattern is not a surprise given the 3rd year of La Nina coupled with drought-enhancing effects of warmer than normal mid-latitude oceans. The end of 2022 drought is likely the worst since 1956.

Feared intensification of a recurving hurricane has occurred. Since midnight, the lowest pressure has collapsed from 952 to 942 MB indicating Ian is now a catastrophic category-4 major hurricane. The top wind is now near 140 mph. Hurricane force wind extends to 35-40 miles from the eye. Ian will move inland near Port Charlotte later today without much change in intensity.

Based on the ECMWF guidance, Climate Impact Company projects another half-dozen tropical cyclone events in October biased toward the Western Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas. An additional 2 or 3 hurricanes is anticipated.

Madden Julian oscillation shifts to phase_4/phase_5 and strengthens over the next 2 weeks according to ECMWF. The convection pattern in the tropics of the West Pacific suggests this pattern has already developed. An increase in West Pacific tropical cyclone activity and above normal rainfall stretching from Southeast Asia to Australia is likely. Conversely, the subsidence phase of MJO shifts across South America.