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09/11/2026, 5:02 am EDT
ECMWF issued new probabilistic climate forecasts yesterday. Super El Nino peak is projected for DEC/JAN/FEB 2026-27. A review of precipitation patterns, anticipated by ECMWF, is provided. Included are vigorous California and U.S. East Coast storm tracks and likelihood of Northern Brazil drought/Southeast Brazil flooding rains.
09/10/2026, 11:49 am EDT
An extremely intense positive phase of global atmospheric angular momentum (+GLAAM) developed in early July, and the strongest intensity so far is projected to emerge during middle September.
09/08/2026, 5:14 am EDT
Last week, the Nino12 SSTA warmed to +4.6C and Nino3 SSTA surged to +3.5C combining for the warmest equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperature anomalies on record. In the Nino34 SSTA region, where ENSO phase is assessed, conventional Nino34 SSTA is +2.7C qualifying as Super El Nino while the new relative Nino34 SSTA index is +1.8C just below the Super El Nino threshold.
09/07/2026, 10:20 am EDT
The end of August soil moisture decile anomalies analysis from Australia Bureau of Meteorology reveals dryness developing on the East Coast while away from the coast soil moisture is considerably higher than normal for a large area.
09/04/2026, 4:49 am EDT
ECMWF is most aggressive with the ongoing rains in Southeast/East Brazil. The outlook is supported by ongoing negative Antarctic oscillation (-AAO) which implies semi-permanent low-pressure troughs in the middle latitudes. ECMWF projects a semi-permanent low-pressure trough east of Argentina located across an area of relative cool SSTA. Meanwhile, east of Brazil, a marine heat wave (MHW) is expected to strengthen. The upper trough entrains increased low-level atmosphere moisture across the MHW driving a wetter Southeast/East Brazil climate likely to last through spring.
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Latest Multivariate ENSO Index Report
The JUL/AUG 2026 multivariate ENSO index (MEI) was +2.5. MEI is an excellent indicator of the atmospheric response to the equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) regime. When comparing the JUL/AUG 2026 MEI with the past 3 previously most intense El Nino episodes on record, the 2026 signature ranks strongest. Note that after rapid intensification of previous strong El Nino events, there is a tendency of MEI to level off except for the 1982-83 event which peaked in strength well into the second year of the event.
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Surge In Ocean Rise Off The U.S. West Coast Ahead!
The dramatic warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific ALSO means sharp sea level rise. Current NOAA analysis reveals the ocean rise in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the recent oceanic warming is about 14 inches. The Kelvin Wave causing the ocean rise is “fanning” northward and will reach waters off the California Coast during the month of September raising sea level from about 6 inches above normal (now) to 12-13 inches above normal later this month. The ocean rise is accompanied by additional warming.