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02/10/2026, 11:31 am EST
January 2026 ranked 24th warmest of the 132-year history across the U.S. The month was characterized by prohibitive warmth for much of the month followed by an arctic outbreak later in the month across the East. Despite the chill, Eastern States managed only top 25% coldest January (at best).
02/08/2026, 1:25 pm EST
Dramatic storm tracks are almost always associated with influence of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO). The intense Southwest/South Europe storm track of the past 2-3 weeks is directly related to an eastward shift of the MJO across the equatorial East Pacific to tropical Africa.
02/06/2026, 11:29 am EST
Torrid dryness across Northeast Argentina continues during early February. The outlook into early next week maintains the dry pattern. However, an upper trough approaches from the west causing significant rain in Argentina during the medium range. The forecast trend is wetter.
02/06/2026, 8:41 am EST
Europe East selected cities (Berlin, Munich, Vienna, and Milan) observed an exceptionally cold January with HDD count averaging 13% colder than normal while Europe West selected cities (Glasgow, Heathrow, Paris, Dusseldorf, and Berlin) were much closer to normal.
02/05/2026, 9:52 am EST
In March, ECMWF crests an upper ridge across the Southeast U.S. which leads to high risk of unusually warm early spring climate for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. In April, the warm ridge shifts westward and settles on the southern Great Plains where dry and warm mid-spring weather is likely. Late meteorological spring brings an upper ridge to the Great Basin promoting dry and very warm climate across the West and Southwest U.S.
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MJO Strengthens, Influences Australia/South America Climate
The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) has been active and a key contributor to climate patterns of the past several months. The MJO trend continues through mid-to-late February. Models indicate a strengthening phase_3 (East Indian Ocean/West Maritime Continent) over the next 10 days shifting east to phase_4 (Eastern Maritime Continent) in the 11-15-day period.
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First Northern Hemisphere Summertime El Nino Since 2015 in 2026? Maybe!
Dynamic models indicate that possibility while a constructed analog keeps ENSO in neutral phase. We’re in the ENSO prediction barrier right now, when ENSO forecast skill is low. Close monitoring of ENSO is required during the next few months.