When the NAWH and Mediterranean Sea MHW were present during 7 of the past 10 meteorological summer seasons, the influence of the oceanic regime on the prevailing weather pattern across Europe is an amplified high-pressure ridge centered on France and Germany.

The Climate Impact Company month 1-4 ahead climate outlook is updated. There are some changes from the earlier issued summer 2026 outlook and forecast confidence has increased as predictors are increasingly clear. High impact climate is likely and will affect public safety and market interests. Most prominent is the hot climate forecast for summertime across the West and Northwest U.S. with record heat possible the first half of summer in the Northwest and possibly late summer in California.

Morning temperatures are generally near 32F in the Freeze Warning area across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. The eastern Ohio Valley faces a similar chill tomorrow morning with upper 20’s likely. A warm-up follows but medium range forecasts reveal another chilly outbreak to close April.

In the High Plains, D0-D4 aerial coverage lowered slightly, but (more) intense drought (D2-D4) increased by 4%. In Kansas, soil conditions are steadily shifting drier (except in the northeast). The South U.S. drought is impressive with sharpest declining conditions in Arkansas. Similar with the High Plains, D2-D4 drought increased slightly in mid-April.

The Climate Impact Company Summer 2026 climate forecast indicates evolution of a major drought in Europe which extends to Southwest Russia. Accelerating the drought is increasing strength of anomalous heat. The forecast is based on developing strong El Nino, a prominent North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH), and emerging heatwaves in the Norwegian Sea and Mediterranean Sea.