Remnants of a potent tropical wave are located over Southern Texas, and the attendant low-pressure area may drift off the Central Texas Coast midweek and become a tropical depression before moving back inland the northwest coast of the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Regardless, this system enhances an extreme rainfall event forecast for the length of the Texas Coast the next 3 days and East Texas to Mississippi for THU/FRI. NOAA/WPC indicates potential for 15+ inches of rain near and east of Houston this week with 5-10 in. from Corpus Christi, TX to Jackson, MS.

Although recent Australia climate was drier, the generally wet pattern of May/early June is likely to resume the next 2-4 weeks due to persistent positive phase Antarctic Oscillation(+AO)/Southern Annular Mode (+SAM) which is forcing wet upper troughs to navigate Australia and prevent drying effects from a developing El Nino climate. The drying effects from El Nino arrive later winter.

The second warmest meteorological spring on record was observed during MAR/APR/MAY 2026. The warmest on record was observed in 2012, the year of a prohibitive drought. All-time record-warmth was observed in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas for meteorological spring. The remainder of the contiguous U.S. was MUCH ABOVE normal except marginally ABOVE normal for the Upper Midwest to New England States.

The May 2026 CDD at Heathrow and Paris were prohibitively warm! A whopping 61 CDD was observed in Paris due to a record (May) heat spike compared to 12 and 15 30-year/10-year climatology. The June 2026 CDD forecast for both Heathrow and Paris remain hot with strong increases in CDD count from the previous (May) forecast. Note that May, June, and July (Paris) are hotter (CDD) forecasts than last year’s totals.

An immense heatwave south and west of Europe is intensifying, typical of the past 10 years during June in this region. The MHW is well-correlated to a summertime 500 MB hot/dry ridge across Europe forecast by ECM "weeklies" in the week 3-4 outlook. Meanwhile, an intense Madden Julian oscillation has caused southern oscillation index into an extreme negative phase signaling the onset of an El Nino climate. Forecast models indicte risk of important cold into Brazil in the 11-15-day period.