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06/14/2026, 9:44 am EDT
Although recent Australia climate was drier, the generally wet pattern of May/early June is likely to resume the next 2-4 weeks due to persistent positive phase Antarctic Oscillation(+AO)/Southern Annular Mode (+SAM) which is forcing wet upper troughs to navigate Australia and prevent drying effects from a developing El Nino climate. The drying effects from El Nino arrive later winter.
06/10/2026, 1:42 pm EDT
The second warmest meteorological spring on record was observed during MAR/APR/MAY 2026. The warmest on record was observed in 2012, the year of a prohibitive drought. All-time record-warmth was observed in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas for meteorological spring. The remainder of the contiguous U.S. was MUCH ABOVE normal except marginally ABOVE normal for the Upper Midwest to New England States.
06/07/2026, 9:42 am EDT
The May 2026 CDD at Heathrow and Paris were prohibitively warm! A whopping 61 CDD was observed in Paris due to a record (May) heat spike compared to 12 and 15 30-year/10-year climatology. The June 2026 CDD forecast for both Heathrow and Paris remain hot with strong increases in CDD count from the previous (May) forecast. Note that May, June, and July (Paris) are hotter (CDD) forecasts than last year’s totals.
06/04/2026, 5:48 am EDT
An immense heatwave south and west of Europe is intensifying, typical of the past 10 years during June in this region. The MHW is well-correlated to a summertime 500 MB hot/dry ridge across Europe forecast by ECM "weeklies" in the week 3-4 outlook. Meanwhile, an intense Madden Julian oscillation has caused southern oscillation index into an extreme negative phase signaling the onset of an El Nino climate. Forecast models indicte risk of important cold into Brazil in the 11-15-day period.
06/03/2026, 1:47 pm EDT
The mega-cluster ensemble combining ECM, CFS, and CMC output indicates risk of significant cold not far from Brazil coffee-growing areas on June 15-16.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Cold Risk Southeast Brazil 11-15 Days Out; West Africa Cocoa Continues Wet Pattern
The 11-15-day temperature anomaly forecasts by ECM and AI GFS indicate significant cold risk in Argentina to southwest and southeast Brazil. Each model indicates the core of the cold is slightly different regions. In each scenario, the southern coffee growing areas of Brazil are very close to the <32F risk zone as indicated by ECM ENS. Other forecast models are cool but not as cold.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
Possible Record Strength Oceanic El Nino in 2026 but ENSO Climate May Be Less Intense
Traditional measurements of ENSO phase indicated El Nino onset during early Q2/2026. However, the new relative operational Nino index (RONI) is (now) used to determine ENSO strength and forecasts. Using RONI, NOAA identifies the presence of El Nino beginning in June. Dynamic models continue to forecast a potential record strength oceanic El Nino likely due to the immense upper ocean heat rivaling the 1997-98 El Nino as most intense on record. However, using a RONI analog, the ENSO climate may be less impressive and is followed by La Nina returning next year.