Latest News
03/31/2023, 9:00 am EDT
The Climate Impact Company 2023 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season forecast projects 12 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The accumulative cyclone energy (ACE) index forecast is 92. The activity forecast is slightly below normal due to the presence of weak El Nino. Despite an El Nino season, at least two hurricanes are forecast to strike the U.S. targeting the north-central Gulf and eastern Florida coastlines.
03/28/2023, 8:55 am EDT
Another round of unusually intense severe weather is forecast for late this week and again in the extended-range across the East-central and Mid-south U.S. according to NOAA. The catalyst to the exceptionally strong severe weather is the increased low atmospheric moisture across the somewhat warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico and the persistent negative Pacific North America (-PNA) pattern propelling an energetic jet stream across Mexico to the Mid-south U.S.
03/27/2023, 10:40 am EDT
The upper ocean heat in the equatorial East Pacific is warming sharply. An old Kelvin Wave shifting eastward arrived on the northwest coast of South America the past 1-2 weeks and has caused steady impressive warming in the Nino12 SSTA region. A new Kelvin Wave has shifted east of the Dateline to about 145-140W longitude. The new Kelvin Wave is forecast to reach the northwest South America coast by early May.
03/21/2023, 3:41 pm EDT
Dynamic ENSO phase forecast models are indicating a full-tilt El Nino by August 2023. Implied is a tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic basin possibly similar to the last full-throttle El Nino that suppressed North Atlantic activity. Below normal rainfall was observed during JUL/AUG/SEV 2015 across the Southern U.S., Gulf of Mexico, and western North Atlantic tropics.
03/17/2023, 8:31 am EDT
Since late January, the Pacific North America (PNA) index has shifted to a (mostly) steady negative phase. A brief positive phase is with us now, but strengthening negative phase returns in the latest 15-day forecast. The -PNA pattern occurs when an upper-level troughing in the jet stream pattern occurs just off the North America West Coast. The persistence of the -PNA pattern has caused the Northeast Pacific to cool, the Northeast Pacific marine heat wave (MHW) to shift westward and reinvigorate the cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (-PDO).
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Blizzards, Tornadoes, and High Wind Central Into East States
A major storm reaching Iowa by early this afternoon spawns almost coast-to-coast hazards including a blizzard in South Dakota to Minnesota, severe thunderstorms featuring a tornado risk in Iowa and eastern Arkansas, and widespread damaging wind gusts from the southwest Great Plains to the Appalachian States.
Climate Impact Company Climate Research
An Update on Marine Heat Wave NEP22A
Marine heat wave NEP22A located north-northeast of Hawaii is budging eastward again. NEP22A is the 2nd longest duration and 4th largest in aerial coverage MHW since satellite monitoring began in 1982. Dynamic models maintain the eastward shift toward the west coast of North America heading into summertime.