During the past 30 days, the percent normal rainfall across Europe has become prohibitively dry. Consequently, soil moisture deficits have broadened and intensified. The anomalous temperature was extremely hot (3-7F) for west and south portions of Europe during the past 30 days helping to accelerate drought.

A semi-permanent upper-level low-pressure trough located over southeast New Mexico during early July entrained tropical moisture off the East Pacific Ocean and western Gulf of Mexico creating the perfect set-up for persistent heavy rains. The development of the semi-permanent low-pressure area was potentially related to the unusually wet monsoon pattern of early summer. The early July rainfall observations across Central Texas indicate widespread >10-inch regions with high spots exceeding 20 inches.

Yet another location struck by marine heatwave enhanced air temperature during late JUN/early JUL as East China (and Japan) have turned excessive excessively hot (and dry). During the 7-day period ending July 3, 2025, temperature anomalies range from 2-4C >normal for East China and South Japan and near 8C >normal in parts of Northeast China.

NOAA/SPC projects strong thunderstorms across the East and Southeast U.S. for today. Included is a severe weather risk caused by damaging wind potential in Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. The event is lengthy, mid-afternoon to midnight, therefore repeat events can cause excessive rain and flooding most likely in the Washington/Baltimore area.

On about July 1st, the AIFS (AI forecast process) becomes the improved and operational AIFS ENS. Up until now, publicly available AI forecast processes skill scores have strongly favored Graph Cast. A look at today's 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast for the U.S. AG Belt identifies the large disparity between GFS, ECM ENS, and AIFS ENS. Knowing the large-scale climate pattern and recent skill scores are suggested to identify which model to use operationally.