The upper ocean heat anomalies from September 2026 continued to warm to unprecedented levels. Anomalies are, by far, the strongest on record and identify the exceptional potential energy to fuel Super El Nino. The weekly SSTA observations in the Nino regions (also) convey the steady warming to record levels. The Nino12 SSTA region, off the northwest coast of South America, is at an unheard of +5.1C anomaly last week.

A lot of inquiries during recent days on influence of marine heatwaves and their influence on regional climate. The big topic right now is Super El Nino. But! Increasingly, large areas of oceanic warming (and cooling) are having significant influences on regional climate. Let’s review where these warm (and cool) pools of ocean water are located and their regional influence on climate.

The Nino SSTA regions in the east-central and far east equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to warm. Currently, Nino34, Nino3, and Nino12 have shattered previous record warm SSTA produced by the Super El Nino episodes of 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.

Category-3 Major Hurricane Polo is forecast to initiate a northeast turn toward the Baja California Coast tonight, cross Baja California as a hurricane tomorrow, and gradually weaken crossing Northern Mexico Tuesday. Polo is the strongest (892 MB) northern hemisphere major hurricane of 2026 edging Major Typhoon Sinlaku (896 MB). A significant contributor to Polo’s intensity is passage across Marine Heatwave NEP25A which initiated last year and has produced the warmest anomalous ocean temperatures off the Southwest Coast of North America on record.

Drought is “sneaking up” in Australia. In the East, dry soil conditions are expanding and now include the Southeast Coast. The Northwest Australia drought us strengthening a southern reach to Coastal Southwest Australia. The 10-day outlook combing GFS and ECM indicates significant rain in southeast/south portions of Western Australia and possibly the Southeast Coast while elsewhere is dry.