Latest News
12/03/2024, 8:36 am EST
A look at the primary climate controllers through the middle third of December yields an active and moderate to strong Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) across Maritime Continent. MJO phase_5 has a strong warming influence on the U.S. climate which is in the current medium-range forecast.
12/02/2024, 8:00 am EST
Both GFS and ECM regenerate a cold upper trough in the Northeast U.S. to Quebec sector as the middle third of January approaches. The forecast explains why a surge in U.S. heating demand is projected by CFS V2 and ECM for the week of Jan. 3-9.
12/01/2024, 11:14 am EST
A colder pattern across West/Central Europe emerges in the medium range according to ECM. During the colder transition, a large area of precipitation centered on Central Europe is indicated. As the colder weather strengthens, precipitation is over to mostly snow for Central to Southeast Europe and the Southern Mountains.
11/27/2024, 10:38 am EST
The cold burst into the U.S. next week remains in the forecast easing in the 11-15-day period. Interestingly, ECM maintains a colder edge to the mid-to-late December forecast based on heating degree day projections while the CFS V2 is much warmer. The HDD forecasts are heavily weighted by the high population East U.S.
11/24/2024, 3:11 pm EST
After a warm autumn, a significant pattern change starting meteorological winter. A much colder forecast for the East trending colder during the 6-10/8-12-day period since late last week. Increased snow cover across Southern Canada into the Northern U.S. inspires the effectiveness of the cold air delivery. Significant heating demand, days when the average temperature is >10F colder than normal, is projected Nov. 29-Dec. 5 across both PJM and SERC sectors.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Cold Stratosphere Just-after Mid-month in Polar Region
In 16 days (Dec. 18) the GFS indicates a very cold stratosphere in the polar region. A classic stratospheric warming event causing mid-latitude arctic air outbreaks would be just the opposite of the forecast. There is some stratospheric warming across Asia in 16 days possibly inspiring some arctic air across parts of Russia to Tibet.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
Late Season Surge Brings Another Very Active North Atlantic TC Season
The 2024 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season ended on November 30. This year, the final tally on tropical cyclone activity was 18 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 161.6. The above normal activity maintains the recent pattern (2016-24) of very active (and dangerous) tropical cyclone seasons.