Forecast models reveal presence of MJO convection concentrated near the Dateline through the weekend surging eastward toward and into the equatorial Atlantic in early December. The influence on climate is heavy rainfall across the Mid-south (and vicinity) in the 10-day U.S. precipitation outlook, enhanced rains across Brazil, and a rare drying trend in Australia.

Getting the most (research) attention regarding a new phenomenon referred to as marine heat waves (MHW) is typically the Northeast Pacific MHW and more recently in research published in Journal of Climate, the East Asia/West Pacific MHW. However, the southern hemisphere has certainly acquired large areas of surface/subsurface water much warmer than normal and well-correlated to upper atmosphere pressure patterns somewhat stagnant in character leading to long lasting climate regimes featuring both very wet and dry-to-drought regimes.

The mega-cluster ensemble indicates an area of cold weather in Russia may strengthen and intensify over the next 15 days driven in-part by above normal snow cover which recently reached Eastern Europe.

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) climate forecast for South America during meteorological summer 2022-23 indicates persistent anomalous heat and dryness in Argentina where flash drought is quite possible. The dryness extends to Southeast Brazil although less consistent. Far Southeast Brazil has a drought risk for summer 2022-23. The remainder of Brazil Crop Areas is normally wet with diminished drought risk.

The NAWH trough is extending eastward and will now produce another high impact weather regime across Western Europe…excessive rainfall! The GFS 15-day rainfall forecast indicates several in. of rain with high spots >5 in. for Western and Southern Europe for the second half of November. Farther downstream, a cold and snowy trough develops in Western Russia next week.