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10/27/2026, 4:52 am EDT
A classic intense negative outgoing longwave radiation anomaly signature representing persistent convection near and east of the Dateline beginning late last May and representative of rapidly developing El Nino has weakened during the past week. For the first time since earlier this year, the southern oscillation index has shifted positive. Has Super El Nino 2026 reached peak intensity?
10/26/2026, 8:49 am EDT
The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2026-27 cold season compared to the last 2 winter seasons and 10-year normal is warm! Only NOV-25 and JAN-24 stand out warmer than the 2026-27 forecast. There are no months during NOV-26 to MAR-27 when U.S. gas population weight HDD are not warmer than the 10-year normal. Historically, for this century, the 2026-27 forecast is consistently warmer than normal but somewhat equidistant between the cold and warm extremes although the DEC-26 projection is close to the warm extreme.
10/22/2026, 7:09 am EDT
Prohibitive West/South U.S. storm tack ahead with NOAA/CPC highlighting risks for Halloween to November 4th. The pattern will become persistent as the Super El Nino winter climate unfolds.
10/19/2026, 8:46 am EDT
Snow cover is advancing, providing cold bias, and allowing arctic air to gather during the last third of October. Snow cover advance is notable in Quebec and Northeast/Interior East Asia. Above normal snow cover in these regions has increased significantly during recent days.
10/15/2026, 10:13 am EDT
The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates strengthening drought Interior Northwest while the 2026 severe drought extending from the Great Basin and Southwest U.S. to the Mid-south and Southeast States is (mostly) erased.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Wetter Pattern Change Midwest U.S. Ahead
Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) strengthens and shifts east to the Indian Ocean into early November and causes a shake-up in the prevailing precipitation pattern of the past 30 days to emerging heavy rain in Texas this week, widespread heavy rain and severe weather centered on the Midwest next week while an atmospheric river pattern shifts into the Northwest Coast by days 11-15.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
What Should I Look at to Identify Increased Pattern Change/Cold Air Risk?
What to look for as cold season is about to begin to identify pattern change and potential cold air outbreaks, which according to NOAA SFS V2, may be higher than current expectations. One of the lead diagnostics is snow cover and snow cover anomalies observations and trends. If snow cover is advancing (or developing), a built-in cold bias to the pattern across and downwind of the snow cover advancement trend evolves. Conversely, just south of snow cover during meteorological winter, mild temperatures over-achieve.