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10/02/2023, 7:55 am EDT
In Australia, an unusually intense “renegade” low pressure area is forecast off the Southeast Australia Coast by early Thursday with central pressure 983 MB. Pressure that low will cause minimal hurricane wind gust potential across eastern Victoria and south coastal New South Wales. In this zone, 2-5 in. of rain is expected. The 15-day outlook continues to project a confined area of very heavy rain across Southeast Brazil.
09/29/2023, 5:09 am EDT
400 river level gauges are below “low water” on the Mississippi River due to the 2023 drought in parts of the Central U.S. The condition which is threatening the water supply for October harvest and barge travel along the Mississippi is worsening. The latest 15-day outlook by ECM ENS indicates mostly dry weather continuing in the Mississippi Valley.
09/28/2023, 12:24 pm EDT
Typical of tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic basin, late season activity is most favorable in the western basin. Outer North Atlantic activity has a tendency to diminish although anomalous warm SST is likely to sustain tropical convection in the eastern tropics well into November. ECM indicates Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico risk areas through October (and early November).
09/27/2023, 7:46 am EDT
The Australian rainfall pattern is shifting very dry. Last week, coastal areas susceptible to wet weather received little or no rain. Drying soil moisture regions is accelerating due to the lack of rain and recent expansive anomalous heat. However, a pattern change is ahead. After additional dry and hot weather for another week or so, a sharp cold front brings heavy rain to Southeast Australia mid-next week.
09/25/2023, 2:36 pm EDT
The 60-day rainfall pattern (since July 24th) has featured mostly drier than normal climate across much of India while areas of wet weather affected China in between excessive hot/dry spells. The prevailing upper air pattern featured low-pressure wet weather zones from the Philippines toward Japan and east of Caspian Sea with general high-pressure in-between, delivering a mostly dry and hot climate to India with patchy rains for China while Northern China was quite hot.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Upper Ocean Heat Easing Slightly, Suggests El Nino 2023-24 Not a Super El Nino
Comparing September 2023, the 9th month of an El Nino year, to the past 3 vigorous or moderate El Nino episodes indicates El Nino 2023 is moderately strong and trending toward the weaker El Nino’s regarding subsurface fuel supply and sustain the warm ENSO event.
Climate Impact Company Climate Research
Correlating Northeast Pacific SSTA and Europe Winter Temperature
When was the last cold winter season in Europe? Sprawling meteorological winter (DEC/JAN/FEB) cold was last observed during winter 2012-13. Since that time, 8 of 10 winter seasons have been warmer than normal across Europe. During the past 30 years, 7 widespread cold winter seasons have been observed clustering in the mid-to-late 1990’s and in the 2008-2013 period.