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03/25/2026, 11:59 am EDT
The North Atlantic basin is marginally warmer than normal (+0.33C) and similar with this time last year. However, in the lower latitudes, the Caribbean Sea, and main development region (MDR) are somewhat cooler than last year at this time. The Gulf of Mexico basin is near +0.4C although nearly 1C cooler than one month ago. Upper ocean heat in the Gulf of Mexico and main development region (MDR) for North Atlantic hurricanes is second coolest in the 2013-26 climatology.
03/23/2026, 9:59 am EDT
Tropical Storm Narelle rests over the coastal northwest portion of Australia soon to move offshore and begin to redevelop. In 4-5 days, Narelle reaches category-2 or category-3 intensity moving into the northwest coast of Western Australia. Through 10 days, the West Coast region of Australia is very wet.
03/20/2026, 8:39 am EDT
The wetter pattern change begins to emerge in the 11-15-day period, has developed in the 16-20-day period, and expands in the 16-30-day period. The core of the heavier rain is unclear based on the latest CFS, ECM, and GC forecasts.
03/19/2026, 8:18 am EDT
The effect of the Middle East War on energy supply and prices increases the value of U.S. cooling degree day projections for the 2026 warm season. Provided is a monthly discussion of expectations and charts for each NOAA/EIA region of the U.S.
03/17/2026, 8:00 am EDT
The latest 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast by ECM unloads heavy rain on Argentina. The wet forecast is supported, at least through the next 10 days, by an upper-level low-pressure trough off the Chilean Coast where SSTA continue much above normal adding to the risk of potential significant rainfall.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Northwest HYDRO Outlook: Reconsidering the “Warm Blob” Influence
Required is a review of the upper air patterns from the 2014-16 “warm blob” years for the PNA region during APR/MAY and JUN/JUL to help time maximum snowmelt/water runoff in key Southwest Canada HYDRO locations. The 2026 “warm blob” has record strength aerial coverage making the 2014-16 “warm blob" years a reasonable analog.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
AI Research: Check On 2-Meter Temperature Forecast Skill Scores for NA, EU, SA, and AU Past 30 Days
During the past 30 days, 2-meter temperature forecasts verification skill scores (using anomaly correlation) reveal best skill is across South America trailed by a tie between North America and Europe with Australia in last place.







