The Climate Impact Company month 1-4 precipitation outlook for India is updated. The forecast is driven primarily by warm ENSO analog years and partially by marginally positive phase Indian Ocean dipole (+IOD). The outlook does not completely fail the wet monsoon due to impacts of El Nino. However, key crop areas in Central India are likely to encounter developing and strengthening drought during the next several months.

Searing heat remains in the forecast for Europe during the last 10 days of June. The hot weather episode is hotter than 2 recent events (6/18 and 5/26). Paris, France is above 100F all week. The 15-day forecasts are very dry and hot accelerating drought concerns. Climate signals indicate the heat should ease in the 11-15-day period.

Forecast models continue to make the case for developing and intensifying drought across much of Europe given continued hot and mostly dry 15-day forecasts and 16-30-day projections.

Remnants of a potent tropical wave are located over Southern Texas, and the attendant low-pressure area may drift off the Central Texas Coast midweek and become a tropical depression before moving back inland the northwest coast of the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Regardless, this system enhances an extreme rainfall event forecast for the length of the Texas Coast the next 3 days and East Texas to Mississippi for THU/FRI. NOAA/WPC indicates potential for 15+ inches of rain near and east of Houston this week with 5-10 in. from Corpus Christi, TX to Jackson, MS.

Although recent Australia climate was drier, the generally wet pattern of May/early June is likely to resume the next 2-4 weeks due to persistent positive phase Antarctic Oscillation(+AO)/Southern Annular Mode (+SAM) which is forcing wet upper troughs to navigate Australia and prevent drying effects from a developing El Nino climate. The drying effects from El Nino arrive later winter.