The updated Climate Impact Company 2026 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season activity forecast lowers amount previously indicated in early April from 13 to 11 tropical storms while maintaining 5 hurricanes and lowering from 3 to 2 the amounts of intense hurricanes. The accumulated cyclone energy forecast lowers sharply from 98 to 73. However, the projected hurricane tracks indicate two potential land-falling systems in the Gulf of Mexico and another into the North Carolina Coast. The seasonal activity lowers but the danger to the U.S. Coast increases.

The Madden Julian oscillation has ignited across the equatorial Pacific Ocean likely to remain intense during the next 2 weeks (Fig. 1). The outlook indicates MJO is withing phase_7 implying a cooler East U.S./warmer West U.S. thermal regime with wet weather biased toward the southern states. Additionally, MJO phase_7 is supportive of a developing El Nino climate as demonstrated by recent and an intense negative southern oscillation index.

The North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is alive and well south of Greenland! Just published research reveals the cool pool has formed due to the slowing the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Conveyor (AMOC) Belt which began in the late 1990’s. The cool pool has forced the Labrador Current to carry a cold countercurrent (to the Gulf Stream) to east of New England this late spring season. The colder waters are correlated to an upper trough which intensifies tomorrow propelling rain, snow, and high wind across New England.

Short-term heat spike centered on Southwest Europe lingers this week followed by a cooler/wetter Northern Europe pattern next week and suppressed heat risk in the Southwest. However, anomalous heat regenerates and broadens during the middle third of the month.

The AI Graph Cast ECM ENS 15-day rainfall forecast is SCARY. The model locks extreme rain in the Gulf States and keeps the Midwest U.S. arid. Implied is an acceleration of the May drier North/wetter South pattern. Very warm to hot weather affecting much of the dry zone over the next 15 days helps to accelerate drying of soils.