Latest News
05/14/2026, 4:58 am EDT
We are experiencing elements of the ENSO springtime predictability barrier, specifically, lack of a sustained atmosphere-to-ocean link to force an El Nino climate. The equatorial oceanic warming is there but the atmospheric reflection lags.
05/13/2026, 12:25 pm EDT
El Nino onset helps to inspire sharp upper-level low-pressure troughs in the subtropics to take advantage of the much warmer than normal Southeast Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and tropical East Pacific SSTA patterns causing widespread low latitude heavy rains. Latent heat release poleward warms the atmosphere near the U.S./Canada border causing a warmer/drier pattern for the Northern U.S. later this month.
05/12/2026, 9:34 am EDT
Solar Cycle 25 has passed peak and is now decelerating in intensity which will continue into solar minimum beginning in 2030. Once solar minimum is reached, solar cycle 26 begins. The APR-26 sunspot number was 79.3 and weaker than various forecast model projections.
05/07/2026, 1:47 pm EDT
A U.S. pattern change featuring a wetter climate, mostly affecting the Southern States, is forecast by various probabilistic and dynamic models for later this month and early meteorological summer. Required to inspire a wetter pattern is persistent negative southern oscillation (SOI) or the onset and intensification of an El Nino climate.
05/05/2026, 9:24 am EDT
ECMWF broadens high pressure across the U.S. centered on the Great Plains later this month. Support from other models is favoring this solution although some AI models re-cool the East. The sensible weather is widespread anomalous warmth and increasing Great plains hot weather risk. The Southwest U.S. encounters early season clouds/thundershowers.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Cool/Wet Pattern in Europe Reverses Very Warm Western Europe Days 8-14
In Europe, a cool and wet weather pattern will persist into early next week followed by a significant warm-up for Western Europe in the 8-14-day period. Note the usage of CMC ENS, the top skill score for temperature forecasts so far in May!
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
Cool Season Precipitation Pattern Across South America During Super El Nino
Regarding the cool season precipitation climate across South America during Super El Nino, the 2015, 1997, and 1982 episodes combine to produce a wet climate across Southeast Brazil and Paraguay while Northwest Brazil is very dry. The most recent Super El Nino (2015) produced a slightly wetter Southeast Brazil climate pattern.