Latest News
08/28/2026, 10:56 am EDT
Extremes characterize U.S. soil moisture in August. Flash drought has developed across Oklahoma and vicinity. Drought is also intensifying across the Upper Midwest. The Midwest has shifted dramatically much wetter during late summer.
08/23/2026, 7:17 pm EDT
Recently, wet weather has developed across parts, not all, of the Europe drought region. The week 2-4 outlook indicates additional rainfall is likely to help ease drought in parts of Europe.
08/19/2026, 4:31 am EDT
The Climate Impact Company month 1-4 ahead forecast for South America is updated. The outlook is based primarily on the evolution of Super El Nino and variable anomalous warm SSTA off each coast. The outlook warrants an ALERT for developing/widening/intensifying drought in Brazil as meteorological summer 2026-27 arrives. Additionally, excessive rainfall causing dangerous flooding emerges in Southeast Brazil and may expand westward as summertime arrives.
08/18/2026, 8:11 am EDT
NOAA/CPC issues an alert for the medium range for extreme heat risk covering the southern half of the Great Plains and much of the Southern U.S. The attendant lack of rain is causal to flash drought affecting eastern and northern Texas, all of Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, western Arkansas, and most of Louisiana and Mississippi.
08/17/2026, 2:10 pm EDT
The warmest eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean subsurface temperature anomalies on record are identified by NOAA valid for Aug. 9, 2026. The warmest anomalies are 10-11C warmer than normal near 100-meter depth. The historic warm water identifies the potential energy to warm the ocean surface inspiring an intense El Nino climate.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Inactive Tropics Allowing Ocean Surface to Warm
The subtropical North Atlantic basin is warming significantly as September 1st approaches partly due to lack of tropical cyclones tracking through these waters to up-well cooler water. The Gulf of America is near 1.0C warmer than normal while the western North Atlantic basin is 1.25C warmer than normal. Actual surface temperatures are in the 86-87F/30-31C range sufficient for explosive intensification for any tropical cyclones passing over the very warm waters.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
Initial CIC U.S. Winter 2026-27 Outlook
The Climate Impact Company INITIAL Winter 2026-27 Outlook is issued. The forecast is based on a constructed analog heavily weighting past strong El Nino events. El Nino 2026-27 has a 70% chance of breaking the record for strongest warm ENSO event on record.