Overnight, both the GFS and ECM operational models project heavy rain associated with a tropical cyclone during the 11-15-day period in the Gulf of America and the Southeast U.S. Coast plus Florida. The 11-15-day forecast indicates potential for a high impact event gaining substantial confidence if the same projection is in the 6-10-day forecast late this weekend. GFS develops a system in the Northwest Caribbean Sea late next week and projects a stalling hurricane in the eastern Gulf of America during the last 5 days of the month. ECM develops a system in the Northeast Gulf during the 11-15-day period.

ECMWF issued new probabilistic climate forecasts yesterday. Super El Nino peak is projected for DEC/JAN/FEB 2026-27. A review of precipitation patterns, anticipated by ECMWF, is provided. Included are vigorous California and U.S. East Coast storm tracks and likelihood of Northern Brazil drought/Southeast Brazil flooding rains.

An extremely intense positive phase of global atmospheric angular momentum (+GLAAM) developed in early July, and the strongest intensity so far is projected to emerge during middle September.

Last week, the Nino12 SSTA warmed to +4.6C and Nino3 SSTA surged to +3.5C combining for the warmest equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperature anomalies on record. In the Nino34 SSTA region, where ENSO phase is assessed, conventional Nino34 SSTA is +2.7C qualifying as Super El Nino while the new relative Nino34 SSTA index is +1.8C just below the Super El Nino threshold.

The end of August soil moisture decile anomalies analysis from Australia Bureau of Meteorology reveals dryness developing on the East Coast while away from the coast soil moisture is considerably higher than normal for a large area.