Latest News
01/08/2026, 3:48 pm EST
The equatorial subsurface East Pacific has warmed significantly and oceanic La Nina demise is ahead for late winter. La Nina climate is likely to last longer, lasting until mid-to-late spring. We’re entering the “springtime prediction barrier” for ENSO forecasts. Recent research has revealed that already low skill of ENSO forecasts made at this time of year has worsened.
01/06/2026, 5:00 am EST
The GFS 1-7-day forecast indicates expansive cold to very cold weather enhanced by widespread above normal snow cover. Both GFS and ECM agree that arctic air becomes involved in the 8-14-day period adhering to East Europe and West Russia. Snow cover is above normal as indicated by GFS for midday today and increases/deepens over the next 2 weeks.
01/05/2026, 4:24 am EST
The outlook for JAN-26 is cold. The first half of JAN-26 is cold for most of Europe (except Portugal/Spain). The cold is stronger than the 30-year normal, especially East Europe. The Europe-West chill is slightly colder than last year and much colder than the last 2 mid-winter regimes for Europe-East.
01/02/2026, 4:04 am EST
The evolving stratospheric temperature anomaly pattern during the first half of January is warming across Eurasia and cold in North America, the direct opposite regime of early meteorological winter. Beneath the high variation in stratospheric temperature, the troposphere (below) responds by warming North America while very cold air is ongoing in Europe and develops in Siberia.
12/31/2025, 8:29 am EST
Next week is trending warmer except GFS ENS which maintains a colder pattern. Forecast models are disagreeable for January 9-15 although majority of solutions are trending colder. The week-4 forecast is prohibitively cold according to CFS/ECM and AI. CFS/ECM trend toward a thaw by early February.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Dry-biased Graph Cast Preferred Model to Project South America Rainfall in Current Pattern
The AI Graph Cast ECM ENS is the least wet biased model. Today’s 15-day AI GC percent of normal rainfall outlook for South America reveals a drier than normal pattern across most of Brazil and Central Argentina while the 24-hour change suggests a sneaky wet regime in Northern Argentina.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
Interior West/Northern U.S. and Florida are Windy Regions for Q1/2026
ECMWF and CIC-CA U.S. wind forecasts for JAN-26 to MAR-26 are compared to establish forecast confidence. Indicated are above average forecast confidence for greater than normal windspeeds Interior West for the current month with disagreement in the Southeast, especially Florida where ECMWF indicates lighter than normal windspeed and CIC-CA is above normal.