Latest News
03/09/2026, 2:04 pm EDT
The Climate Impact Company MAR-26 to FEB-28 ENSO phase forecast is based on a constructed analog utilizing upper ocean heat anomalies east of the Dateline, Nino34 SSTA, and southern oscillation index. The upper ocean heat in the eastern equatorial East Pacific became immense during February and is the leading indicator of El Nino risk ahead.
03/05/2026, 5:39 am EST
The severe weather pattern continues today and into the weekend. Severe thunderstorms including a tornado risk reform across the southern Great Plains later today and tonight. A widening area of severe storms and tornado risk stretch across the eastern Great Plains and include Texas to the Midwest States tomorrow.
03/04/2026, 8:16 am EST
The U.S. weekly evaporative drought demand index (EDDI) valid for late February indicates parts of the U.S. most susceptible to drought or flash drought as the warm season arrives is the Gulf States, parts of the Southwest U.S., and central U.S. Corn Belt. If areas listed shifted into a dry climate as the warm season arrives, rapid drought development/intensification would generate in these zones. However, the U.S. precipitation pattern is forecast to change through the next 30 days featuring above too much above normal precipitation in Texas to the Ohio Valley in the latest 15-day outlook likely to continue in the week 3-4 period.
03/03/2026, 3:00 pm EST
Reviewing the Climate Impact Company U.S. heating degree day (HDD) count for selected cities reveals the coldest location for meteorological winter 2025-26 was Norfolk, VA where 117.4% of the 30-year normal HDD was observed. Values above 110% are considered MUCH BELOW normal temperature (or MUCH HIGHER than normal heating demand). Norfolk was followed closely behind by New York City (117.0%), Baltimore, MD (114.3%), Richmond, VA (114.2%) and Hartford, CT (113.7%).
03/02/2026, 1:31 pm EST
Northern Africa, Southern Europe, and into the Middle East develop an impressive low latitude storm track. Central Europe to West/Southwest Russia and most of the Black Sea region are drier than normal.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Mega-cluster Ensemble “Most Likely” Forecast Indicates Cold Spike East March 18th
At midday, 7 of 14 forecasts (combining dynamic and AI models) are cold in the East during the 11-15-day period. ECM OP and Weather Next V2 appear coldest while GFS OP is warmest. Support from climate signals to substantiate the cold forecast is poor. However, the mega-cluster ensemble “most likely” March 17th scenario is heavily biased by ECM which supports vigorous chill in the East and equally impressive warmth over Nevada. ECM, GFS, and CMC are near equally shared to generate a “caveat” forecast for March 18 which is very cold across the eastern half of the U.S.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
-PNA/+NAO Influences on U.S. Climate
Vigorous positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is the lead climate signal supporting the warm pattern across the U.S. during the past 14 days. The negative phase of the Pacific North America (-PNA) has dominated in recent weeks although under-performing as a wet/snowy weather maker in the Northwest/West U.S. while the attendant dry signal for the Southeast is strong.