Latest News
01/11/2026, 11:54 am EST
The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is moderately strong near the Dateline. Forecasts indicate an eastward shift toward the longitude of the Americas in the extended range. While the current (phase_6) of MJO favors a drier than normal climate for most of Argentina/Brazil, the shift into phase_7 favors broadly wetter than normal climate. Consequently, wetter 8-14/11-15-day (model) forecasts are favored. The wetter bias should last into the 16-20-day timeframe.
01/08/2026, 3:48 pm EST
The equatorial subsurface East Pacific has warmed significantly and oceanic La Nina demise is ahead for late winter. La Nina climate is likely to last longer, lasting until mid-to-late spring. We’re entering the “springtime prediction barrier” for ENSO forecasts. Recent research has revealed that already low skill of ENSO forecasts made at this time of year has worsened.
01/06/2026, 5:00 am EST
The GFS 1-7-day forecast indicates expansive cold to very cold weather enhanced by widespread above normal snow cover. Both GFS and ECM agree that arctic air becomes involved in the 8-14-day period adhering to East Europe and West Russia. Snow cover is above normal as indicated by GFS for midday today and increases/deepens over the next 2 weeks.
01/05/2026, 4:24 am EST
The outlook for JAN-26 is cold. The first half of JAN-26 is cold for most of Europe (except Portugal/Spain). The cold is stronger than the 30-year normal, especially East Europe. The Europe-West chill is slightly colder than last year and much colder than the last 2 mid-winter regimes for Europe-East.
01/02/2026, 4:04 am EST
The evolving stratospheric temperature anomaly pattern during the first half of January is warming across Eurasia and cold in North America, the direct opposite regime of early meteorological winter. Beneath the high variation in stratospheric temperature, the troposphere (below) responds by warming North America while very cold air is ongoing in Europe and develops in Siberia.
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Australia High Impact Weather Pattern…Victoria Wildfires/Queensland Flooding
Australia starts January with hostile brush fires northeast of Melbourne while flooding rains from a tropical system (Koji) pounce on Queensland. So far, JAN-26 has produced unusually hot weather across Interior Southeast Australia where the brushfire regime emerged.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
U.S. HDD Forecasts Have Been Too Cold
U.S. gas population weight HDD forecasts through 6 weeks from late December correctly identified the warmer early-to-middle January warmer trend although not as warm as observed. Today’s projection for the current week is MUCH warmer than forecast in late December and possibly the largest reason for natural gas price collapse late last week. Projections for week-4 are near the 30-year normal, somewhat less cold than both CFS/ECM and AI indicated from 2 weeks ago.