In 16 days (Dec. 18) the GFS indicates a very cold stratosphere in the polar region. A classic stratospheric warming event causing mid-latitude arctic air outbreaks would be just the opposite of the forecast. There is some stratospheric warming across Asia in 16 days possibly inspiring some arctic air across parts of Russia to Tibet.

The Great Lakes are exceptionally warm, averaging in the upper 40’s to low 50’s and with a steady arctic air mass crossing over the lakes an immense lake-effect snowfall event is underway. The 1-5-day GFS snowfall forecast indicates an extreme amount from Western Michigan to New York with widening southern extent due to Alberta Clipper storms in the 6-10-day period.