As the polar region turns sharply colder due to loss of sunlight mid-to-late autumn, cold air is swept across an increase in open ocean water (due to a constricting polar ice cap) that leads to advection snows bringing above normal snowfall to the northern continents most notably Northern Russia.

The unexpected quiet period across the tropical/subtropical North Atlantic basin may be about to end. Tropical waves are stronger as they move across tropical Africa and into the eastern North Atlantic tropics. However, the ECM ENS 15-day rainfall forecast indicates extreme rain across tropical Africa as tropical waves and their attendant convective energy are about to intensify dramatically.