September 2024 - Page 3 of 4 - Climate Impact Company

09/12/2024, 8:54 am EDT

Possible Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States Heavy Rain Episode Early Next Week

An area of low-pressure forms near or south of a frontal boundary off the Southeast U.S. Coast late this weekend and gradually strengthens over the warm waters near the Gulf Stream. A subtropical or tropical storm may develop.

09/12/2024, 5:04 am EDT

Late Season Heat for U.S. Corn; Drought-ridden Southern Brazil Sugarcane Receives Wetter Forecast

After the driest August since 2013, the last thing U.S. Corn needs is late season heat. Unfortunately, very warm to hot temperatures are in the forecast most focused in the medium range. There are patchy wet zones in the outlook. The drought-ridden southern sugarcane areas in Brazil receive adjusted much wetter 15-day forecasts.

09/11/2024, 11:03 am EDT

Using AIFS, Beneficial Rain Southern Brazil Sugarcane Areas Ahead

AIFS delivers some much-needed rainfall to the southern sugarcane growing region in Southern Brazil beginning this weekend with a 2-day event projected followed by a second more widespread rainfall arriving later next week.

09/10/2024, 1:36 pm EDT

The U.S. AUG-24 and JUN/JUL/AUG-24 Verification

Meteorological summer 2024 was the 4th hottest on record. Last year was the 15th hottest on record while 2022 was the 4th hottest on record at that time. Summer 2021 was the hottest on record. Summer 2024 set records for heat 5 states including California and Arizona, Florida, plus New Hampshire and Maine.

09/10/2024, 6:15 am EDT

Francine Gains Organization and Intensity Heading to Louisiana Later Tomorrow

Tropical Storm Francine is not yet a fully realized tropical cyclone. However, that changes later today as Francine gains hurricane intensity. Francine feels the westerly shear north of the storm which turns the hurricane toward Louisiana tonight and Wednesday with landfall projected around 4PM across Vermillion Bay. France should reach category 2 intensity prior to landfall.

09/08/2024, 9:30 am EDT

Tropical Cyclone Expected Western Gulf of Mexico This Week

A tropical cyclone is likely in the western Gulf of Mexico this week. Tropical cyclone models take Tropical Disturbance 91L from the Bay of Campeche northwestward with gradual development to a tropical storm in 48-72 hours arriving off the northeast coast of Mexico followed by a north-northeast turn and continuing to intensify, possibly to a hurricane, before reaching the northwest Gulf of Mexico Coast Friday morning,

09/08/2024, 9:22 am EDT

Daily Feature: The Over-achieving Sun!

In August, the sunspot number (215) was the highest observed since September 2001 (23 years). The solar maxima of solar cycle 25 has arrived! The solar maxima for cycle 25 is just beginning and could continue to intensify as solar maxima can last up to 2 years.

09/06/2024, 8:48 am EDT

Deep Tropics Starved for Mid-Atmosphere Moisture

To help inspire vertical motion, plentiful moisture at the mid-troposphere level is helpful to create an environment supportive of tropical cyclone development. However, during early September, relative humidity at 600 MB across the deep tropics in the North Atlantic basin is arid. Plentiful moisture at 600 MB is too far to the north to help inspire TC activity.

09/05/2024, 5:12 pm EDT

Upper Ridge Pattern Continues Over Northwest Eurasia and Well-Correlated to Norwegian Sea MHW

The ongoing impressive marine heat wave (MHW) across the Norwegian Sea continues and the persistent high-pressure ridge well-correlated to this feature remains locked-in across Northwest Eurasia according to the ECMWF “monthlies”.

09/05/2024, 12:49 pm EDT

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Trend During Cold Season

As the polar region turns sharply colder due to loss of sunlight mid-to-late autumn, cold air is swept across an increase in open ocean water (due to a constricting polar ice cap) that leads to advection snows bringing above normal snowfall to the northern continents most notably Northern Russia.

09/04/2024, 11:04 am EDT

Tropical Africa Becomes Soaking Wet and Emits Strong Tropical Waves into the Atlantic

The unexpected quiet period across the tropical/subtropical North Atlantic basin may be about to end. Tropical waves are stronger as they move across tropical Africa and into the eastern North Atlantic tropics. However, the ECM ENS 15-day rainfall forecast indicates extreme rain across tropical Africa as tropical waves and their attendant convective energy are about to intensify dramatically.

09/04/2024, 10:53 am EDT

U.S. Population Weight CDD’s for Summer 2024

Climate Impact Company U.S. population weight CDD forecasts for meteorological summer 2024 issued during late May/early June were closest to the observed values. As time went on, subsequent forecasts were much warmer propelled by fear of drought-induced heat in the Central U.S. and anomalous warmth in high energy demand areas of the East U.S. fueled by very warm SSTA off the Atlantic Coast.