September 2024 - Page 3 of 10 - Climate Impact Company

News

09/25/2024, 10:53 am EDT

Sharply Cooler Equatorial East Pacific Subsurface Offers La Nina Energy if Tradewinds are Sustained

The southern oscillation index was neutral much of the past 1-2 weeks correlated to easing trade winds. However, +SOI is forecast to re-emerge. The subsurface waters in the equatorial East Pacific have cooled significantly the past 30 days indicating increased energy to fuel La Nina if trade winds become established.

09/24/2024, 6:05 am EDT

PTC Nine Becomes Named Storm Tonight; HWRF Indicates NE Gulf Category-4 Major Hurricane

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine strengthens to a tropical storm by tonight and becomes a hurricane once reaching the southeast Gulf late tomorrow. The HWRF model takes Helene to a strong category-4 major hurricane in the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Thursday just prior to landfall.

09/24/2024, 4:54 am EDT

IOD Likely to Stay Neutral Well Into 2025

Reviewing the 1993-2024 monthly IOD index, positive phase spikes are usually followed by the negative phase. A sharp +IOD was observed in 2023 fading earlier this year. Anticipated (earlier this year) was generation of a new negative phase. However, monthly observations during 2024 reveal a steady neutral phase.

09/23/2024, 1:51 pm EDT

Nino34 SSTA Reaches La Nina Threshold

Last week, the Nino34 SSTA cooled to the La Nina threshold. Other Nino SSTA regions remain in the neutral phase. The key to ENSO phase ahead is (mostly) the upper ocean heat observation and trend near and east of the Dateline. Recently, the cool waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific subsurface have strengthened and shifted eastward to the Dateline.