September 2024 - Page 3 of 10 - Climate Impact Company

News

09/24/2024, 6:05 am EDT

PTC Nine Becomes Named Storm Tonight; HWRF Indicates NE Gulf Category-4 Major Hurricane

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine strengthens to a tropical storm by tonight and becomes a hurricane once reaching the southeast Gulf late tomorrow. The HWRF model takes Helene to a strong category-4 major hurricane in the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Thursday just prior to landfall.

09/24/2024, 4:54 am EDT

IOD Likely to Stay Neutral Well Into 2025

Reviewing the 1993-2024 monthly IOD index, positive phase spikes are usually followed by the negative phase. A sharp +IOD was observed in 2023 fading earlier this year. Anticipated (earlier this year) was generation of a new negative phase. However, monthly observations during 2024 reveal a steady neutral phase.

09/23/2024, 1:51 pm EDT

Nino34 SSTA Reaches La Nina Threshold

Last week, the Nino34 SSTA cooled to the La Nina threshold. Other Nino SSTA regions remain in the neutral phase. The key to ENSO phase ahead is (mostly) the upper ocean heat observation and trend near and east of the Dateline. Recently, the cool waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific subsurface have strengthened and shifted eastward to the Dateline.

09/23/2024, 1:49 pm EDT

The Much Warmer Than Normal Eastern Gulf of Mexico

During recent years, the (certain) catalyst to a category-4/category-5 major hurricane has been travel of the tropical cyclone across 31C/87F (or warmer) SST. Right now, the SST for the most likely path of Helene is 30C/86F certainly sufficient to fuel a category-3 major hurricane. The SST across the northeast Gulf of Mexico is a scary 0.75C to 1.75C warmer than normal.