September 2024 - Page 2 of 10 - Climate Impact Company

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09/27/2024, 5:00 am EDT

North Atlantic Basin October Tropical Cyclone Climatology And October Outlook

On average, during the 29-year (1995-2023) period identified, October produces 2.6 tropical storms, 1.3 hurricanes, and 0.6 major hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin. The most observed was in 2005 when 7 tropical storms formed whereas 2002 and 2006 produced no tropical cyclones.

09/26/2024, 8:49 pm EDT

Mostly a Dry and Warm Week 2-4 U.S. Forecast

The U.S. week 2-4 outlook features sprawling high pressure across the West and Central U.S. producing a nationally drier and warmer than normal climate through mid-autumn. The Gulf of Mexico may be tropically active (after Helene) otherwise rainfall in the U.S. is sparse.

09/26/2024, 5:42 pm EDT

Helene Likely to Reach Category-4 Major Hurricane Intensity Making Landfall in Northwest Florida

At 5AM EDT, Category-3 Major Hurricane Helene was located at 27.9N/84.6W or about 130 miles west of Tampa and 175 miles south of Tallahassee. The maximum sustained wind is 125 mph, and Helene is accelerating to 23 mph toward the north-northeast. Central pressure is 951 MB. Helene is developing rapidly while accelerating. An exceptionally violent storm.

09/26/2024, 8:35 am EDT

Hurricane Model Peak Intensity Forecasts into Category-4 Major Hurricane Level for Helene

Hurricane models (HWRF and HMON) initialize the 8AM EDT central pressure at 952-953 MB, so slightly too strong. HWRF takes Helene to a 935 MB/138 mph category-4 major hurricane by 8PM this evening with landfall across the Apalachee Bay area late this evening. HMON is not quite as strong, indicating 941 MB/133 mph category-4 major hurricane at 8PM this evening with landfall shortly after midnight in the Apalachee Bay area.