News
09/03/2024, 4:35 am EDT

An Update on North Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Factors

A review of the seasonal hurricane activity predictors is mixed with warm SSTA in the main development region (MDR) supportive of hurricane development while fast trade winds suppressing tropical development have been a significant inhibiting factor.
09/02/2024, 10:35 am EDT

Steady +SOI Supports Trend Toward La Nina

A steady and intense positive phase of the southern oscillation index (+SOI) has developed since mid-August causing trade winds across the eastern equatorial Pacific to increase and begin to up-well cool subsurface water to turn the Nino34, Nino3, and Nino12 SSTA cooler during the past 7-10 days.
09/02/2024, 6:37 am EDT

-AO/-NAO Bring Autumnal Air Mass to Midwest U.S. Days 6-10

As early September arrives, most striking, is the cool weather set-up in the Midwest/East U.S. centered on the 6-10/8-12-day period. At that time, both the arctic oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) shift to negative phase supporting a high latitude blocking ridge and amplified polar vortex centered on Ontario and the Great Lakes.