October 2021 - Page 5 of 5 - Climate Impact Company

News

10/05/2021, 2:57 pm EDT

Sunspot Activity Running Well Above Forecast in October 2021

The sunspot number for early October is around 50 which is well above the projected value based on the Sep. 10, 2021 forecast by NASA. In fact, the observation is above the 95th percentile forecast. Conservative forecasts for solar cycle 25 project a similar sunspot number at solar maxima in 2024-25 to the past solar peak occurring twice in 2011-12 and 2013-14. However, based on early trends, solar maximum for 2024-25 could be much stronger.

10/05/2021, 7:40 am EDT

The Last Fortified La Nina Modoki

La Nina Modoki is rare! The last fortified La Nina Modoki occurred during quarter 1 of 1989. The climate patterns for quarter 1 of 1989 associated with this ENSO regime were generally much different from conventional La Nina. The La Nina Modoki favors a drier climate in South America and Australia and shifts typical storm tracks for mid-to-late winter across the U.S. while favoring a colder climate. The La Nina Modoki climate anomalies identified may not be exactly as indicated given the much warmer global oceans of the modern-day climate.

10/03/2021, 5:13 pm EDT

Heavy Rains Indicated Southeast Brazil Days 8-14

A wet fetch out of the deep tropics interacts with a low pressure trough causing excessive rainfall forecast by GFS in the 8-14-day period across Southeast Brazil, Uruguay and northeast Argentina.

10/03/2021, 11:54 am EDT

Record Warm Central into East U.S. October 2021?

The October 2021 temperature anomaly outlook is ferocious warm Central and into the East. The GFS ENS is super warm east of the Continental Divide for most of the next 15 days and the remainder of October is likely to feature very little change. The West will cool-down and impressively so during the medium-range. However, the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. may receive a record warm mid-autumn.