Dry soil conditions are widespread in the West and Central U.S. most profound in California, Utah, Texas and the Western Corn Belt. The driest seasonal change is across the Mid-South U.S. Fortunately, a wetter and more snowy pattern change is ahead for the Wet and Central U.S.

A busy NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning and advisory map? A major Christmas Eve storm erupts in the East today/tonight bringing severe thunderstorms to the coastal Mid-Atlantic region, high wind causing poser outages for the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England and flash flooding caused by heavy rain from Virginia to Maine. Heavy snow on the back side of the storm targets West Virginia to Ohio.

Mid-to-late summer regional soil moisture deficit in the deep layers (10-200 CM) are a key diagnostic for monitoring potential flash drought risk. If a period of 7-10 days (or more) of dry and anomalous hot weather occur over these regions a fast-emerging drought will develop.

The Pacific decadal oscillation cool phase strengthened in November. Meanwhile the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal oscillation ended last month. The -PDO pattern is not expected to last long becoming neutral in 2021 while the AMO pattern should rewarm for the 2021 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season.