An amplified upper ridge crests over Central Europe this week causing extreme heat likely to break records and centered mostly on Spain and France where temperatures will exceed 100F. The peak strength of the heat wave is later this week. The heat begins to ease next Tuesday.

Ocean surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and East Pacific are monitored closely as the tropical cyclone season is underway. Of particular interest is the rapid warming of the North Atlantic in the vicinity of Bermuda during mid-June. Also note that the warmth associated with weak El Nino in the equatorial East Pacific is shifting toward the Dateline.

A comparison between June 1, 2019 and June 1, 1993 Palmer Drought Severity Index is reviewed. Generally regarded as the last great flood to strike the Midwest U.S. now does the 2019 event compare?

The ever-changing ENSO...we now consider El Nino Modoki for 2019. El Nino Modoki analog years are 1986, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2004 and 2009. During El Nino Modoki in JUL/AUG/SEP the U.S. Corn Belt is drier and France to Southwest Russia is dry. Warm phase Pacific decadal oscillation to strengthen! Implies an expansive dry/hot western North America upper ridge pattern. The 11th positive phase Indian Ocean Dipole (since 1960) has formed which usually brings a dry winter/early spring climate to Australia. The North Atlantic cool pool will be stronger than the model forecast likely to keep New England cool this summer season and Western Europe wet. Tropical cyclones approaching the Gulf of Mexico States or Southeast U.S. intensify as they move over very warm waters later this summer.