Discussion: March 2023 featured a stormy pattern across California and into the Great Basin where top-5 all-time precipitation amount was observed including record snowfall in mountain areas. Interestingly, no climate forecasts prior to the winter/early spring season predicted this outcome. As a result of the storminess, 850 MB (5,000 feet) relative humidity (RH) anomalies were well above normal due to persistent low-level cloudiness (Fig. 1). Higher clouds were farther south across Southern California to the southern Great Plains associated with the subtropical jet stream (Fig. 2). In the East, low cloudiness producing precipitation was minimal as the Mid-Atlantic States were dry and new drought was emerging. Virginia observed a top-10 all-time dry month. Fig. 1-2: March 2023 observed 850 MB and 300 MB relative humidity anomalies. The Climate Impact Company forecast from February indicated the low and high cloud risk across California into Texas with reasonable accuracy (Fig. 3-4). However, the above normal sunlight forecast for the remainder of the nation was overdone especially in the coastal Northwest.   Fig. 3-4: March 2023 forecast of 850 MB and 300 MB relative humidity anomalies. During March 2023, anomalous wind speeds were difficult to ascertain due to frequent wind direction changes. The only prominent speed anomalies were lighter than normal in the North-central U.S. (Fig. 5-6) and higher than normal north-to-south wind in the Great Basin centered on Utah. Fig. 5-6: March 2023 observed zonal and meridional wind anomalies. The CIC March 2023 zonal and meridional wind speed forecast featured a large area of below normal zonal wind across the Interior Northwest stretching eastward to Iowa (Fig. 7). Above normal zonal wind was forecast across Ontario and Quebec. Meridional wind speed forecasts were varied and generally light (Fig. 8). Fig. 7-8: March 2023 forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies.

EXPERIMENTAL Zonal/Meridional Wind Anomaly Forecast EXPERIMENTAL Relative Humidity Anomaly Forecast Valid: March and April 2023 Executive summary: For major wind and solar regions maily across the Southwest and South U.S., forecast highlights for March and April 2023 include stronger than normal southerly wind across Western Texas in March (although below normal wind speeds in eastern Texas). In April, below normal wind speeds and above normal cloudiness (wuth rain) plague Texas and vicinity. Cloudiness limits solar across Southern California in March while much of the North/East U.S. receive above normal sunlight for early meteorological spring. Beneath high pressure, most of the West Coast receeives above normal sunlight in April. Methodology discussion: The March/April 2023 zonal/meridional wind and solar forecast is based on a constructed analog (CA). The wind speed/relative humidity anomaly forecast to generate estimated wind/solar potential is experimental. Zonal (west-east) and meridional (north-south) anomalies are forecast for wind generation use. The relative humidity at 850 MB (5,000 feet) is used to project low cloud potential interference with sunlight and similarly at 300 MB (30,000 feet) to project sunlight potential interference from high (cirrus) clouds.    Climate discussion: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) forecast is based on regional SSTA and the U.S. soil moisture pattern. Regional SSTA include an expected fading La Nina, very warm SSTA north and northeast of Hawaii in the Northeast Pacific associated with marine heatwave NEP22A and NEP23A, and the warm North Atlantic basin particularly the western basin including the Gulf of Mexiico. The U.S. soil moisture pattern, a signal of longterm climate, indicates Central and Southwest U.S. drought. March/April 2023 wind forecast: Based on the CIC-CA climate forecast, the prevailing upper air pattern for March features an upper-level low-pressure trough just west of the California Coast and an amplified upper ridge across Northeast Mexico extending to the Mid-south U.S. A weaker upper trough is located southeast of New England. The sensible climate pattern is temperate across much of the U.S. except colder than normal across the Interior West. The central Great Plains are wetter than normal. Dryness dominates the Pacific Northwest. The zonal wind anomalies projected for March across the U.S. feature below normal results for much of the West States (Fig. 1). Only the New England States have stronger than normal west-to-east wind anomalis in March. However, the meridional wind anomalies are stronger than normal in coastal California and much of the Southwest U.S. into Western Texas (Fig. 2). Above normal strength northerly wind is forecast for the Coastal California areas while stronger than normal southerlies are likely into Western Texas. Eastern Texas wind speeds are lighter than normal. Meridional wind speeds are lighter than normal along the East Coast in March. Fig. 1-2: The experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies for the U.S. during March 2023. During April, a polar vortex pattern is forecast to generate over North-central Canada with upper-level high-pressure ridge areas across the Coastal Northwest and Southeast Canada. The sensible weather pattern includes a mild April across the Northeast with very warm risk for the West Coast States especially California. The Upper Midwest and Texas are cool. Texas is a midspring focus for above normal rainfall. Above normal zonal wind (westerlies) persists across Montana to Kansas and eastward to the Western Ohio Valley (Fig. 3). However, meridonal wind is either absent or weaker than normal for much of this region (Fig. 4). Due to the clouds and rain across Texas, below normal wind speeds are expected for ERCOT in April. In the San Juaquin Valley to the coast, meridonal wind speeds are stronger than normal. Wind speeds are lighter than normal on the Northwest Coast. Wind speeds are generally near normal on the East Coast. Fig. 3-4: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies for the U.S. during April 2023. March/April 2023 solar forecast: Low clouds are below normal in March across a large portion of the North and East U.S. due to subsidence associated with high-pressure ridging in the Central U.S. and backside of an upper low mostly just offshore the Northeast States (Fig. 5). Due to an upper-level low just-off the California Coast, above normal cloudiness is forecast in the lower atmosphere for the southern half of California and into the Great Basin. A streak of high cloudiness associated with the subtropical jet stream extends across Northern Mexico to Texas (Fig. 6). In April, due to high pressure on the West Coast, low clouds are generally absent (Fig. 7). Low cloudiness is below normal for a good portion of the U.S. during April except rainy Texas. Above normal sunlight is expected across the Southeast States in April (Fig. 8). Fig. 5-6: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of 850 MB (low cloud) and 300 MB (high cloud) relative humidity anomalies for the U.S. during March 2023. Fig. 7-8: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of 850 MB (low cloud) and 300 MB (high cloud) relative humidity anomalies for the U.S. during April 2023.

Discussion: January 2023 was the 18th wettest in the 1895-2023 U.S. climatology. Consequently, mid-winter was remarkably cloudy much of the time across the U.S. At 850 MB (5,000 feet), above normal cloudiness was most anomalous across California where the 13th wettest January on record was observed (Fig. 1). Low and high clouds (Fig. 2) occurred together to strongly limit solar influence across most of the Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast U.S. Two areas enjoyed above normal sunlight during January: Southern Texas and the Florida Peninsula. The Climate Impact Company Experimental Forecast for January did an excellent job of projecting well above normal low cloud cover in California (Fig. 3). The outlook also performed well with the above normal low clouds centered on the Missouri Valley and vicinity. However, high cloudiness was well under-forecast (Fig. 4). The southern Texas/Florida Panhandle below normal cloud cover forecast verified. Fig. 1-2: January 2023 observed 850 MB and 300 MB relative humidity anomalies. Fig. 3-4: January 2023 forecast of 850 MB and 300 MB relative humidity anomalies. During January 2023, wind speeds were generally below normal across the northern tier of the U.S. while both zonal and meridional wind speeds were above normal across the Southwest U.S. including Southern California and much of the Southeast States (Fig. 5-6). The Climate Impact Company Experimental Forecast for January produced excellent results forecasting below normal wind speeds for the Northeast States and above normal wind speeds in Florida. However, the stronger than normal windspeeds observed in the Southwest U.S. were under-forecast (Fig. 7-8). Fig. 5-6: January 2023 observed zonal and meridional wind anomalies. Fig. 7-8: January 2023 forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies.

EXPERIMENTAL Zonal/Meridional Wind Anomaly Forecast EXPERIMENTAL Relative Humidity Anomaly Forecast Valid: February and March 2023 (DEC-22 verification issued later) Executive summary: The most prominent positive wind speed anomalies for February are above normal zonal (westerly) wind in the Northwest States and above normal (northerly) meridional wind across the northwest Great Plains. Most of the Great Plains average below normal meridional wind in February. Once again, both zonal and meridional wind speed anomalies are below normal in the Great Plains/Upper Midwest (SPP region) during March. However, both the Northwest and Texas (ERCOT) observe above normal wind speeds during early meteorological spring. Relative humidity forecasts to determine low and high cloud amount anomalies feature an exceptionally cloudy February across the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. The Northwest States are also cloudier than normal in February with a similar March forecast especially near the coast. February shows mixed results for primary solar power generating areas in the Southwest U.S. while the March forecast indicates exceptional solar potential across that region. Methodology discussion: The February/March 2023 zonal/meridional wind and solar forecast is based on a constructed analog (CA). The wind speed/relative humidity anomaly forecast to generate estimated wind/solar potential is experimental. Zonal (west-east) and meridional (north-south) anomalies are projected for wind generation use. The relative humidity at 850 MB (5,000 feet) is used to project low cloud potential interference with sunlight and similarly at 300 MB (30,000 feet) to project sunlight potential interference from high (cirrus) clouds.    Climate discussion: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) forecast is based on a historical correlation of similar regional SSTA patterns in both the tropics and middle/northern latitudes and corresponding climate. During February/March 2023, leading contributors to the forecast are an expected decelerating La Nina, persistent warm SSTA in the central/east-central East Pacific and western North Atlantic basins, and presence of a cool pool of SSTA south-southeast of Greenland known as the North Atlantic warm hole.     February/March 2023 wind forecast: In February, the U.S. can expect a cold start to the month with moderation the second half of the month. The coldest weather is forecast for the Central U.S. The wind direction/speed regime across the U.S. will be highly variable during February especially in the Central U.S. where strong northerlies and easterlies are likely the first half of the month and milder southerly component wind develops the second half of the month. Last year, the Great Plains observed two cold outbreaks, one early in the month and the second during the final third of the month. This year, most of the February chill is during the first half of the month. Most prominent in February is the below normal meridional (north/south) wind speed forecast in the Midwest which is surprising given exceptional northerlies expected during early month. Note the below normal zonal wind across the northwest Plains where north/south wind is more dominant in February. Implied is lack of warming chinook-style wind events for the northwest Great Plains. Across most of the West, above normal zonal wind is expected due to stronger than normal westerlies off the Pacific. ERCOT can expect below normal (meridional) wind speeds in northwest sections during February although westerlies are stronger than normal for western Texas during the month. The March forecast is trending warmer (and drier) across the Southwest U.S. with mixed cold and mild periods in the East expected. Strongest wind anomalies are across ERCOT where stronger than normal westerlies and southerlies are indicated. The Northwest U.S. also has stronger (Pacific) westerlies. Both lighter than normal zonal and meridional wind speeds are forecast for the Upper Midwest to the southern Great Plains (SPP region) in March. The Northeast States from New England to New York and Pennsylvania are expected to observe below normal wind speeds. Fig. 1-2: The experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies for the U.S. during February 2023. Fig. 3-4: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies for the U.S. during March 2023. February/March 2023 solar forecast: In February, the relative humidity (RH) forecast is exceptionally high across the northeast quadrant of the U.S. at 850 MB (5,000 feet). This scenario implies above normal cloudiness and precipitation in this sector for late meteorological winter. The thermal regime is mixed, averaging warmer than normal. The precipitation type is biased rainfall closer to the coast and snowfall in the Appalachian Mountains westward. Wet RH values also appear in Washington/Oregon due to the Pacific storm track. The “atmospheric river” pattern slamming California during January does not return in February (or March). The high (cirrus) cloud forecast for February based on the RH anomaly prediction at 300 MB (30,000 feet) is generally much below normal for most of the U.S. to close meteorological winter. In March, the two wet zones are the Missouri/Ohio Valleys and coastal Northwest U.S. Each location has above normal RH forecast at 850 MB for March. However, the 850/300 MB RH anomaly forecasts elsewhere are somewhat below normal indicating above normal solar generation potential for key areas in ERCOT and the Southwest U.S.   Fig. 5-6: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of 850 MB (low cloud) and 300 MB (high cloud) relative humidity anomalies for the U.S. during February 2023. Fig. 7-8: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of 850 MB (low cloud) and 300 MB (high cloud) relative humidity anomalies for the U.S. during March 2023.