08/11/2022, 10:04 am EDT

North Atlantic Basin 10-Day Tropical Monitor

Highlight: ALL CLEAR! Fig. 1: Morning satellite view of the North Atlantic basin. Discussion: Tropical Disturbance 97L has weakened. Remains of this system drift west-northwest with no organization. Thunderstorm activity has increased in the northern Gulf of Mexico. However, dry air entrainment prevents any organization of convection. The upper shear pattern remains intact across the Caribbean Sea and northeastward. The intra-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is stronger today. Forecast models indicate no tropical cyclone risk the next 10 days. The GFS indicates a tropical cyclone forming in the Cape Verde Island area in 15 days. In another environmental factor inhibiting tropical cyclone development, the Gulf of Mexico has cooled by -0.8C the past 30 days.