08/07/2022, 8:04 pm EDT

U.S. Energy Market Sunday Weather/Climate Report

Highlight: Short-term heat and heavy rain. Medium-range heat risk focused on Central U.S. Southwest Monsoon continues. Fig. 1: NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning and advisory areas. Discussion: Excessive heat regenerates in the Northwest and continues in the Mid-south States (Fig. 1). The Northeast Corridor heat wave marches on! Meanwhile, many areas are at risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding including Arizona, East Colorado, Wisconsin and the East Kentucky/West Virginia region. The Northwest heat peaks tomorrow and Tuesday with widespread 100’s expected. Temperatures ease back to near normal by Wednesday. In the Mid-south states, the excessive heat peaks today with widespread 100’s followed by significant cooling tomorrow. By late week/weekend, the hot weather returns. The northwest and central Great Plains becomes the hot spot mid-to-late week. In the Northeast Corridor, the excessive heat lingers through Tuesday with marginal heat still present in the eastern Mid-Atlantic States Wednesday. Excessive rainfall due to heavy thunderstorms stretches across Iowa to Illinois and Wisconsin today. Extreme rainfall causing flash flooding extends from Arizona to Colorado today/tonight. Widespread excessive rainfall will affect the Southwest U.S. tomorrow, most intense in northern Mexico. The Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley and Appalachia are all under-the-gun for locally heavy rain due to thundershowers on Monday. On Tuesday, the same areas are affected by flash flooding due to heavy thundershowers adding east/southeast California. On Wednesday, the eastern Kentucky/Tennessee and central Appalachia persistent flooding continues due to more heavy thundershowers. High impact climate ahead includes a persistent and impressive Southwest U.S. Monsoon continuing into the final third of August (Fig. 2). Some of the heavy rain reaches California and northward to near the U.S./Canada border. The Midwest U.S. rainfall forecast is mixed with streaks of heavy rain and also larger areas of not much rain (Fig. 3). The U.S. medium-range forecast using the ECM ENS maintains the hot weather outlook in the Central U.S. and at times the Northwest States (Fig. 4-5). The East/Southeast and Southwest States have backed away from hot weather over-the-weekend. The U.S. population weight CDD forecast remains hotter than normal through the next two weeks. However, next week’s forecast has eased back (Fig. 6). Fig. 2-3: GFS 15-day rainfall forecast across the West/Southwest U.S. and ECM ENS rainfall anomaly forecast for the Midwest States. Fig. 4-5: ECM ENS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast for the U.S. Fig. 6: U.S. population weight CDD forecasts using all models, their consensus and comparing with 24 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year normal.