05/29/2023, 2:44 pm EDT

U.S. Energy Market Memorial Day Report: The Midwest U.S. continues to dry-out; Hot ahead of incoming (cooler) -NAO/-AO pattern.

Fig. 1-2: Daily U.S. soil moisture anomalies analysis identifying the Midwest to Mid-Atlantic dry trend in May and 15-day GFS rainfall anomaly forecast. Discussion: Getting nervous regarding the drying of the U.S. Corn Belt (Fig. 1) heading into early meteorological summer (Fig. 2). The dry soil trend during May extends to the Mid-Atlantic region. The core of the drought area in the central Great Plains has a recent wetter tendency likely continuing the next 2 weeks. Anomalous warmth will accelerate the dry trend this week as 90F becomes common Des Moines to Dayton to St. Louis. Interestingly, the eastern reach of 90F threat extends to New England WED/THU but avoids the showery Mid-Atlantic States. ERCOT observes a few low 90’sF this week. Next week, the U.S. undergoes a pattern change caused by a developing and intensifying negative phase of both the arctic oscillation (-AO) and North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO). In fact, this pattern may develop a little sooner causing a cooler pattern change, for the weekend. During this time, the positive phase Pacific North America (+PNA) causing the titanic Western Canada ridge regenerates. Offshore, the SSTA pattern is warning as marine heat wave NEP22A northeast of Hawaii shifts toward the coast. Indicated is increasing risk of the Western Canada ridge continuing and possibly expanding southward through the West U.S. once summer season is underway. Also of note during this pattern change is the emerging East U.S. trough near the cool SSTA region (North Atlantic warm hole) east of New England. After the cooler East U.S. 8-14-day pattern change (Fig. 3), the eastern states may try to rewarm while forecast models bias the Southwest U.S. cool due to cool SSTA west and southwest of Baja California while the Northeast Pacific warming keeps that warm/dry pattern in Western Canada going (Fig. 4). Fig. 3-4: The GFS 8-14-day East U.S. temperature anomaly forecast and the CFS V2 16-20-day North America temperature anomaly forecast. In the tropics, Category-3 Major Typhoon Mawar will turn north and weaken to the east of Taiwan in 48-72 hours and the northeastward from there likely missing Japan. A coastal subtropical low-pressure area rolled inland Virginia and will shift east again and offshore for development by late tomorrow/WED. More low-pressure and attendant wind and rain regenerates off the U.S. Southeast/East Coast into early next week but tropical/subtropical development is not expected. The U.S. population weight CDD forecast has not changed much over the weekend maintaining a shift from below to near normal national cooling demand (Fig. 5). Fig. 5: Population weight CDD forecast utilizing all models, their consensus, and comparing with 72 hours ago and normal.