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10/14/2018, 12:09 pm EDT

Energy Market Sunday Report

Highlight: Increasing Quebec snow cover inspires East U.S. chill. Day 1-5 Outlook (Oct. 14-18, 2018): Central chill (with snow) then warmer. Winter cold (and snow) surges through the west/southwest Great Plains into western Texas SUN/MON; 2-4 in. KS/4-8 in. NE. Cool surge in Texas ignites a rainy week; 2-4 in. central/south TX. Milder/showers tomorrow Northeast followed by cool-to-cold (with mountain snows) WED/THU. In Michael recovery area generally warm, sometimes showery. Short-term chill (freeze warnings) Interior West early week; moderation will follow. Warmer Central WED/THU Great Plains. Fig. 1-2: Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for days 1-5 ahead. Day 6 to 10 Outlook (Oct. 19-23, 2018): Briefly warm then cool again Northeast sector. A brief warm surge across the Midwest to East early period followed by another chilly air mass. Wet/cool pattern locked over Texas. A dry and warm pattern West Coast/Northwest U.S. Fig. 3-4: Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for days 6-10 ahead. Day 11-15 Outlook (Oct. 24-28, 2018): More eastern chill. More cold into the East U.S. across snow-covered Quebec cold air source region. El Nino-look southern U.S. as wet weather persists. Fig. 5-6: Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for days 11-15 ahead. Week 3 (Oct. 28-Nov. 3) and 4 (Nov. 4-10) outlook: The Quebec snow cover coupled with a persistent southern U.S. storm track will keep much of the East and South U.S. cooler than normal into the first third of November. The pattern likely allows the early season Canadian snow cover to advance into the northern U.S. helping to sustain the cold. Fig. 7-8: Climate Impact Company week 3/week 4 ahead temperature anomaly forecasts for the U.S. Gas population weight 4-week HDD forecast: After a warm start (nationally) for the U.S. colder weather into the East is ahead. Gas population weight HDD forecasts indicate near to above normal HDD each of the next 4 weeks. Fig. 9: Climate Impact 4-week gas population weight HDD forecast.