09/24/2023, 1:48 pm EDT

U.S. Energy Market Sunday Report: Medium-range forecasts remain warm Central into East.

Fig. 1-2: Mega-cluster ensemble “most likely” medium-range temperature anomaly forecast across North America. Fig. 3-4: The 12Z GFS ENS precipitation amount forecast for the East U.S. and 00Z GFS ENS percent of normal precipitation for the East U.S. Discussion: The overnight mega-cluster ensemble utilized only ECM for the 6-10-day outlook and all operational models in the extended-range (Fig. 1-2). Results are consistent with forecasts from late last week rendering warmer than normal weather for the Central and East U.S. with temperate weather on much of the immediate East Coast and throughout the western third of the nation. A wet pattern especially in the Southeast U.S. and lingering on the coastal Northeast this week (Fig. 3) flipping much drier in the East in the 8-14-day period (Fig. 4). Patchy rains, at best, leave the Mississippi River substantially below “low water” level into early October. In the tropics, tropical cyclone risk is mostly in the central and eastern North Atlantic tropics for the first half of October (Fig. 5-6). The population weight CDD forecast maintains above normal cooling demand into early October (Fig. 7). Fig. 5-6: The CFS V2 precipitation anomaly forecast across the North Atlantic tropics through mid-October.   Fig. 7: U.S. population weight CDD forecast by all operational models, their consensus and comparing 48 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year normal.