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02/18/2019, 10:55 am EST

U.S. Energy Market Holiday Report

Highlight: The West/Central Cold SLOWLY eases. Cold punch into East approaching but (really) arriving. Warm East Mid-March. Chart of the day: Last week’s dramatic thermal differences. Comment:  HISTORIC cold affected the northern Great Plains last week. The cold (and snow) spread across the West. Meanwhile the South and East were very warm. Heavy precipitation was observed across the Tennessee Valley. An “atmospheric river category 4” episode caused damaging high wind, flooding rain and heavy snows into California. The western Great Plains were largely very dry. Week 2 Ahead: February 24-March 2, 2019 Comment: Ensembles are in agreement on cold expansion following a southern U.S. storm track. Ensembles disagree on strength of the southern storm track so a “caveat” forecast is less cold Central U.S. More snow in the West! Week 3 Ahead: March 3-9, 2019 Comment: A forecast change…warming in the (far) South while cold lingers across the North inspired by snow cover. A (mostly) dry pattern with storms mostly in the Gulf, East Coast and into California. Week 4 Ahead: March 10-16, 2019 Comment: Cold weather in the West while the Southeast is wet. The western chill is inspired by lingering deep snow cover in the Intermountain West. The East is very likely warmer than normal. U.S. Gas Population Weight 4-Week Observation/Forecast Discussion: Taking a look at the 4-week observation/forecast HDD anomaly chart last week verified at 11 HDD colder-than-normal following a very warm Feb. 1-7. The forecast for the current week is 20 colder-than-normal down slightly from 24 in the previous outlook. Through the first week of March the U.S. outlook is slightly colder than normal but most of the big chill avoids the East and is heavily biased toward the Central U.S.