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12/09/2018, 2:24 pm EST

U.S. Energy Market Sunday Report

Highlight: Medium-range warmth could underachieve due to storms while extended-range will return U.S. cold. Day 1-5 Outlook (Dec. 9-13, 2018): Storms and cold. Historic snowfall in No. Carolina; near 30 in. parts of NC (Fig. 3). Lingering VA/NC snows Monday. Cold across snow cover into midweek East/Southeast. Waves of rain and snow into the Northwest U.S. As East storm departs and Northwest turns stormy, Central U.S. turns much warmer early week. Next storm organizing THU night Midwest; much warmer Southeast WED/THU ahead of that storm. Fig. 1-2: Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for days 1-5 ahead. One of the strongest North Carolina snow storms on record. Large swath of 1-2 feet of snow southern Appalachians and eastward to central/southwest North Carolina. Widespread power outages and impassable roads. Snow is deep and delays any significant warm-up. Fig. 3: The GFS OP snowfall forecast beginning at 7PM SAT Dec. 8, 2018. Day 6 to 10 Outlook (Dec. 14-18, 2018): Northwest/East storms. Potentially, more stormy than indicated. Storm emerges East U.S.; snows in the mountains. Depending on intensity could be a coastal Northeast snowstorm. Storm generates local cold in northern Mid-Atlantic States. Also stormy in the Northwest; possibly colder than shown. Dry and warm Central States. Wet weather in southern Texas. Fig. 5-6: Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for days 6-10 ahead. Day 11-15 Outlook (Dec. 19-23, 2018): New cold appearing. Be ready for a cold outbreak late in the period. Northern U.S. storm track could shift farther south late period. Warm/dry South (cooler late period). Fig. 7-8: Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for days 11-15 ahead. Week 3 (Dec. 23-29) and week 4 (Dec. 30-Jan. 5) outlook: Broadening cold. Southern storm track generates local chill, snow cover and northward expansion with time. Wildcard: Any arctic air intrusions form the North. Fig. 9-10: Climate Impact Company week 3/week 4 ahead temperature anomaly forecasts for the U.S. Gas population weight 4-week HDD forecast: The outlook continues to indicate a national warm-up during mid-to-late December. However, the late DEC/early JAN forecast trends colder and could easily be much colder. The regional HDD departure forecast also indicates the warming for just-after mid-month. Later in December the West to ERCOT chills and that colder change reaches the Northeast in early January. Fig. 11-12: Climate Impact 4-week gas population weight HDD forecast.