02/23/2024, 5:34 am EST

AI Day-10 Forecast Comparison

Highlight: Disagreeable forecasts at day-10; Preferred is AI Graph Cast severe weather event in Great Plains and arctic high in Quebec. Fig. 1: AI Graph Cast surface features forecast for 10 days from now (Sunday evening March 3). Discussion: Climate Impact Company will be launching ongoing AI-oriented forecast products. The purpose is mainly comparison purposes between lead operational models and the AI-generated forecasts. The initial product is focused on day-10 which identifies when pattern change becomes most important to commodity markets. AI-generated forecasts are (absolutely) not a replacement for standard operational models. They are a tool to help make better forecasts only. The AI Graph Cast day-10 SLP and 850 MB wind forecast has been available through the winter 2023-24 season. In general, at 10 days, the model is consistently warmer than ECM and GFS which has verified. Highlights of today’s day-10 AI Graph Cast forecast include an arctic high pressure in Northeast Canada which other operational models do not have (Fig. 1). In this scenario, a sneaky cold into New England is possible although unlikely given the loss of snow cover. The model also identifies high wind, heavy rain, and severe weather-event for the eastern Great Plains. The upper air forecast at day-10 by ECM supports an Interior West snowstorm with attendant cold. Evolution of a Great Plains severe weather event is delayed until day-10 (Fig. 2). The AI Forecast Net V2 day-10 forecast does not have the Graph Cast Central U.S. storm or the ECM Interior West storm (Fig. 3). Both the ECM and AI Forecast Net V2 do not indicate an arctic high pressure in Northeast Canada similar to Graph Cast. In conclusion, the day-10 forecast is generated with below average forecast confidence. Several important potential features are disagreeable among the models identified. The most important is the Graph Cast Great Plains severe weather forecast and the presence of a 1042 arctic high in Northeast Canada.    Fig. 2-3: Comparing 500 MB anomaly forecasts at day-10 between ECM and AI Forecast Net V4.