03/23/2023, 7:33 pm EDT

U.S. Week 2-4 Outlook: Steadily wetter Southern U.S. climate pattern.

Chart of the day: ECM 10-day percent of normal precipitation forecast. Discussion: The ECMWF 10-day percent of normal precipitation forecast projects lingering rain and mountain snow across California while shifting the core of the storm track to the Mid-south U.S. and northward through the Great Lakes region. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid April 3-10, 2023: Trend is wetter South; cold retreat to Canada (except lingering West). Discussion: The Gulf of Mexico storm track extends across the Southeast U.S. The subtropical moisture involved from the warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico erodes the previously cool forecast in the East. The Southeast could be warmer than indicated. The storm track lifts northward from California to the Northwest States. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid April 10-17, 2023: Turning wet in Texas. Discussion: ECM indicates a substantial pattern change as the Canadian upper ridge extends southward into the Mid-south U.S. The East-central U.S. could easily be warmer than indicated. Much of the U.S. is drier than normal due to the upper ridge except for Texas and New Mexico where much needed rainfall is likely. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid April 17-23, 2023: Southern U.S. storm track. Discussion: The trend is wetter across the Southern States which suppresses warm risk. The Interior West stays cool.