11/21/2022, 5:03 pm EST

U.S. Week 2-4 Outlook: More cold (and snow) and less warm areas in U.S. week 2-4 outlook.

Charts of the day: First and second third of November 2022 temperature anomalies. Discussion: November 2022 has featured two extreme thermal patterns. The first third of November featured unusually mild temperatures across the Central and East U.S. while the West was cold. The second third of November 2022 was cold to very cold for almost the entire U.S. except the East Coast. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid November 28-December 4, 2022: Cold and snow Northwest to North-central. Stays chilly in New England. Discussion: Regenerating cold across deepening snow cover across Western Canada to the Northern U.S. The California to Upper Midwest stretch is snowy. The Gulf States are the warm zone. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid December 5-11, 2022: Warm South/cold North. Discussion: The upper air forecast by ECM supports a warmer than forecast regime across the southern half of the U.S. not dissimilar from the previous forecast. However, despite weak support aloft for cold air, the expansive Northern U.S. snow cover forces Northern U.S. cold which may also include New England. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid December 12-18, 2022: West/Northwest are snowy, colder than indicated. Discussion: ECM indicates a longwave upper trough extending from Northeast Canada to California. An attendant storm track stretches from California to the Central States and features mostly snow. The Southeast warmth could be stronger.