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08/15/2018, 7:00 am EDT

U.S. Medium-range Forecast

Highlight: ¬†Overall, less warm. Chart of the day: Climate Impact Company 4-Week U.S. CDD Forecast Discussion: The Climate Impact Company population weight gas CDD 4-week forecast indicates that nationally the warmer than normal regime continues to mid-September. August 10-16 CDD is projected to verify at 82 which is 10 CDD above normal. The updated forecast trend is warmer next week but not as warm the following 2 weeks. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid August 20-24, 2018 Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid Aug. 25-29, 2018 Discussion: The 6-10 day forecast trends cooler in the northeast sector of the U.S. A cold front chops down the anomalous warm pattern during the period. Texas turns hotter. In the 11-15 day period the trend is cooler in central North America with warmth lingering West and Northeast. Much of the U.S. is temperate. Extended-range 16-20 Day Forecast Valid Aug. 30-Sep. 3, 2018 Discussion: Favoring a warm upper ridge pattern on each coast with susceptibility to temperate/wetter climate in the Central U.S. Medium-range % of normal rainfall forecast for the U.S. Using ECM ENS Discussion: The European ensemble maintains a wet pattern across the Mid-South U.S. to the Great Lakes region in the 6-10 day period. Dryness persists in the West. In the 11-15 day period dryness continues West while the remainder of the U.S. near to slightly wetter than normal.