09/29/2023, 8:41 am EDT

U.S. Medium-range: Cooler East/Warmer West

Charts of the day: Lingering hot risk followed by gaining cold risk. Discussion: Hot weather risk (>90F) is widespread through the next 5 days reaching as far north as Omaha, NE. In the 6-10-day forecast the hot weather risk retreats southward and expands to Coastal California. The risk of <32F extends southward out of Canada into the Interior West in the 6-10-day period and surges toward New England in the 11-15-day period. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid October 4-8, 2023 Discussion: The GFS and ECM are combined to produce the 6-10-day forecast. The Northeast is very warm and the West Coast trends much warmer with hot weather in Southern California to the coast. Wet weather cools Texas/southwest Great Plains. Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid October 9-13, 2023 Discussion: The East trend is cooler lead by the GFS forecast. As impressive is the warming trend across the Western U.S. which expands into the North-central States. U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast Discussion: Wet weather across Mexico and Texas helps to ease a long-term drought in the 6-10-day period. Dryness dominates the warming West. In the 11-15-day forecast widespread dryness is indicated. Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid October 14-18, 2023      Discussion: ECM trend is cool in the Mid-south/East while GFS is MUCH warmer. The Southwest U.S. is wet and Midwest/Southeast U.S. dry for mid-October.