03/01/2024, 8:36 am EST

U.S. Medium-range Forecast: Models are too warm in the East in the medium-range.

Charts of the day: Wind across the Smokehouse Creek fire zone. Discussion: High wind speeds return to the Smokehouse Creek fire zone on the weekend peaking during mid-afternoon from the west-southwest direction pushing fires toward Oklahoma. Trailing a cold front, moderate wind speeds from the north and northeast push fire spread risk southward Wednesday. Based on media reports within the past hour, the Smokehouse Creek fire remains only 3% contained. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid March 6-10, 2024 (24-hour change right) Discussion: -AO/-NAO is strengthening. Canadian warmth is supported. However, the warm forecasts in the East U.S. are likely to fade from south-to-north. The 24-hour change in the South is warmer, expect cooler changes for early next week. Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid March 11-15, 2024 (24 hour change right) Discussion: ECM ENS indicates a warm in the East retreat to Canada. However, the retreat is likely stronger for early next week forecasts. -AO/-NAO is quite strong and supports a cooler than shown East U.S. pattern. U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast Discussion: The storm track is prohibitive in the Central and East U.S. in the 6-10-day period. The western Great Plains precipitation may flip to snow. Hopefully, some of this wet weather reaches the Smokehouse Creek fire zone. In the 11-15-day period, temperatures are cold enough to support West-central U.S. snow. Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid March 16-20, 2024 Discussion: In the extended range, the U.S. is likely temperate or cooler than normal and cooler than shown by ECM. Canadian warmth is likely to continue.