11/29/2023, 12:45 pm EST

U.S. Energy Market Midday Update

Highlight: Southeast U.S. avoiding the warm-up. Fig. 1-2: The 12Z GFS U.S. temperature anomaly forecast for the medium range. Discussion: A near zonal upper air pattern is indicated in the 6-10-day period warming the West and Central U.S. with warming into the East late in the period (Fig. 1). Much of the U.S. is drier than normal during the 6-10-day period. In the 11-15-day period a broad trough is evolving in the East generating a storm track from the Gulf to Northeast U.S. region. The Northeast is warm early in the period (Fig. 2) while the Gulf States turn cooler after storms move eastward. The Dec. 8-14 HDD forecast is much cooler (by 28 HDD) based on the 12Z GFS forecast (Table 1). Dates   HDD Forecast 12-Hr Change 24-Hr Change 30-Year NML 10-Year NML Nov. 24-30     181.8 -0.4 -0.4 157.3 155.3 Dec. 1-7       149.9 +7.1 +4.1 171.3 165.6 Dec. 8-14       164.8 +27.6 -0.9 184.0 175.0 Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.