08/11/2022, 4:54 pm EDT

U.S. Energy Market Midday Update

Highlight: Northwest to Great Plains hotter in the medium-range at midday. Fig. 1-3: The 12Z GFS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast and 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast for the U.S. Midday 12Z GFS discussion: The 6-10-day forecast remains the same thematically, hot Northwest/North-central and cool East although the midday update is warmer in the central Great Plains (Fig. 1). In the 11-15 day forecast the Northwest U.S. heat strengthens while cooler conditions prevail over Ontario to Quebec and Texas (Fig. 2). The 12Z GFS 15-day rainfall forecast is drier in the Central/Midwest U.S. (Fig. 3). The August 19-25 CDD forecast is trending warmer (Table 1). Dates CDD Forecast 12-Hr Change 24 Hours Ago 10-Year NML 30-Year NML Aug. 5-11   93.8 +0.3 93.5 79.8 77.3 Aug. 12-18   70.2 -5.9 70.8 78.0 74.4 Aug. 19-25   90.0 +16.2 83.8 75.6 70.7 Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago. Comment on late season tropical cyclone activity: From 2000-2021 a total of 357 tropical events have taken place in the North Atlantic basin. Of the 357 events a total of 202 events have taken place after September 1st which is on average 56.5% of the seasonal amount. Climate forecasts indicate 15-20 tropical storms for 2022. When that many storms have occurred during the past 22 years, 57.2% of seasonal activity occurs after September 1st. During the most active years (2000-2021) an average of 11 tropical storms occurred after September 1st.