11/25/2022, 12:29 pm EST

U.S. Energy Market Midday Update

Highlight: 12Z GFS trend is colder North/warmer South for the next 15 days. Fig. 1: 12Z GFS 15-day precipitation amount forecast for the East U.S. Discussion: The just-received 12Z GFS indicates potential for excessive precipitation in the East-central U.S. featuring >10 in. possible in the western Tennessee Valley (Fig. 1). There is support from a transient Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) episode during the period therefore the extreme amount is possible. The wet weather is steady through the 15-day period although the 11-15-day forecast trend was much wetter with the 12Z GFS. MJO influence on the pattern causes the HDD outlook to trend less cold (Table 1). Note the 12-hour change for Dec. 2-8, some 43 HDD warmer! Dates HDD Forecast 12-Hr Change 24 Hours Ago 10-Year NML 30-Year NML Nov. 25-Dec. 1   139.2 +0.3 139.7 154.0 159.5 Dec. 2-8     152.9 -42.9 177.5 163.3 173.6 Dec. 9-15     163.5 -9.5 181.6 173.1 185.5 Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.