Bureau of Meteorology/Australia Indicates East Pacific Subsurface Has Reversed Cooler…Reshapes ENSO Implications Update on West U.S. Heat Risk for Next Week Season 1-3 ahead forecasts issued tomorrow Midday model changes… Days 6-10: Similar to yesterday at this time…cooler (and wetter) Corn Belt. Days 11-15: Warmer North; cooler Southeast. Wetter north/northeast Gulf States. Drier Corn Belt. Dates CDD forecast 12-hr change 24 hours ago NOAA Nml Aug 10-16 82.8 +0.4 83.1 68 Aug 17-23 74.4 -5.6 76.5 63 Aug 17-23 80.1 -2.7 69.6 56 Implications of Bureau of Meteorology/Australia East Pacific analysis… SUDDENLY, equatorial East Pacific subsurface cools off (according to Bureau of Meteorology/Australia). There is a new warm zone (Kelvin Wave) near Dateline. But! The late summer/early autumn El Nino call is off the table. El Nino risk still there but later in the year. If El Nino delayed the North Atlantic tropics could be more active than currently indicated. Fig. 1: POAMA equatorial Pacific analysis of subsurface temperature anomalies. Heat Risk Next Week (using midday model)… Burbank 99-100 comment for TUE/WED of next week eased back to 95 which would eliminate heat warning risk. Boise 100-103 comment for next MON-WED eased back to 97-99. Portland, OR near 100 MON comment…ease back to 95 MON/TUE. Comments based on GFS…problem is clouds. ECMWF was a little hotter from overnight so the hotter risk still there but overall trend is to ease back. Hot northern Plains THU/FRI, could be hot again next weekend. Warm-hot risk presented by GFS late month Northeast…definitely could happen. Strong negative (easterly) quasi-biennial oscillation… While a delayed El Nino could make the tropics in the North Atlantic more active for SEP/OCT there is still a lingering problem. Record-strength –QBO. Means wind in high levels of atmosphere are very strong easterly. Acts to shear off the top of a convective column of a tropical cyclone preventing organization/intensification.