Highlight: Soaking wet week in southwest Great Plains. Fig. 1: A soaking wet southwest Great Plains forecast by 12Z GFS for this week. Discussion: The 12Z GFS 144-hour rainfall forecast at midday features heavy rain across the southwest Great Plains drought zone (Fig. 1). Additionally, a streak of heavy rain is also projected for central portions of Minnesota. However, the Midwest States are generally dry or with light rainfall. The 12Z GFS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast (Fig. 2-3) maintains the warm Northwest to North-central U.S. pattern while the South and East stay biased cool thanks to an intense negative phase North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO). The June 9-15 U.S. population weight CDD forecast edges warmer to slightly above normal cooling demand (Table 1). Fig. 2-3: The 12Z GFS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast. Dates CDD Forecast 12-Hr Change 24-Hr Change 10-Year NML 30-Year NML May 26-June 1     32.6 -0.3 -0.5 39.0 43.7 June 2-8     42.3 -1.0 -7.1 46.1 51.2 June 9-15     57.2 +6.8 +8.0 53.4 58.6 Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.

Highlight: A warmer 12Z GFS; stays dry in the Midwest. Fig. 1-3: The 12Z GFS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast and 15-day rainfall anomaly outlook. Discussion: Thematic with the 12Z GFS is a warmer trend in the extended range (Fig. 1-2) while the Midwest dry concern continues (Fig. 3). Canada is much warmer in the 6-10-day period. The June 2-8 CDD forecast is now slightly warmer than normal (Table 1). Dates CDD Forecast 12-Hr Change 24-Hr Change 10-Year NML 30-Year NML May 19-25     25.1 0.0 0.0 32.2 35.9 May 26-June 1     31.9 -0.8 -3.4 39.0 43.7 June 2-8     52.9 +11.6 +10.2 46.1 51.2 Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.