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10/19/2018, 3:12 pm EDT

Gas/Power Notes: November Warm-up

Major warm-up in U.S. middle third of November… Today’s ECMWF 30-day MJO forecast indicates that during the last 10 days of the forecast period MJO shifts east across the equatorial Indian Ocean and into Maritime Continent. Historically, this MJO regime change during November causes a warmer-than-normal climate across the U.S. Coupled with a steady increase in upper ocean heat across the equatorial Pacific (not seen since 2015) the (MJO) influence on the Pacific environment affecting the downstream climate pattern across North America is THAT much warmer. The CFS V2 may not be warm enough for week 4 ahead. This MJOI/warming Pacific event will likely erase the above normal snow cover in southern Canada which helps to bias the eastern half of the U.S. cooler than normal the next 2 weeks. It’s possible this (MJO) shift also initiates El Nino onset. CFS V2…