02/25/2024, 11:51 am EST

U.S. Gas Population Weight Winter 2023-24 HDD Forecast

02/25/2024, 11:42 am EST

U.S. Gas/Power Report: U.S. cold season 2023-24 projected as 5th warmest this century. Europe finishes winter with a warm FEB/MAR.

Fig. 1: U.S. (NOAA) gas population weight HDD for the cold season (NOV-MAR) for each winter of this century compared to the 10-year normal.   Discussion: The estimated U.S. gas population weight HDD for the 2023-24 cold season (NOV-MAR) is 3478 HDD (Fig. 1). The value represents the 5th warmest cold season of this century. The 3 warmest cold seasons of this century in the U.S. were 2001-02 (3345 HDD), 2011-12 (3224 HDD), and 2015-16 (3269 HDD). Interestingly, the 2001-02 winter season occurred with neutral ENSO while La Nina was present in 2011-12. The 2015-16 winter season brought a robust El Nino. El Nino occurred during the current winter season. The warm winter seasons occur independent of ENSO phase. The 2023-24 cold season in the U.S. produced a unique national heating demand structure with near normal in November and close to normal projected for March, very warm low heating demand months of December and February and normally cold demand during the peak of winter due to one arctic outbreak (Fig. 2). In Western Europe, the cold season started with near normal heating demand shifting to below national demand in December with a slight recovery in January (Fig. 3). The cold season will finish with very warm months of February and March. Fig. 2: Verified and projected U.S. gas population weight HDD for NOV-23 to MAR-24 compared to the 30-year/10-year normal. Fig. 3: The Eastern Europe selected cities HDD observations and forecast for the 2023-24 cold season.