11/28/2022, 8:23 am EST

U.S. Gas/Power Market Notes: An update on short-term and winter gas population weight HDD forecasts

Fig. 1: Latest U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast using a consensus of all operational models compared to 24 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year normal. Discussion: The latest operational U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast through the week of Dec. 9-15 yields a colder change for next week and not much change for the following week with national heating demand averaging between the 10-year and 30-year normal (Fig. 1). In the latest cold season (OCT-22 to APR-23) monthly HDD anomaly forecast the OCT/NOV 2022 national heating demand was generally higher than the past 3 years (Fig. 2). A similar trend is indicated for DEC/JAN 2022-23 although not as cold as the 30-year normal. February heating demand is above normal although not as extreme as 2021. MAR/APR will finish the cold season with below normal national heating demand. The cold season 2022-23 national HDD forecast is generally in-between the 30-year and 10-year climatology except colder than each for November and February (Fig. 3). Fig. 2: Climate Impact Company cold season 2022-23 monthly HDD anomaly forecast compared to the past 3 winter seasons.    Fig. 3: Climate Impact Company cold season month U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to the 30-year/10-year climatology.