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08/15/2018, 7:05 am EDT

U.S. Early Energy Market Notes

Highlight: Central cool pattern may lift north; warmer southern U.S. Next week’s hot risk for West U.S. slightly less intense. U.S. Gas CDD forecast: The consensus outlook is adjusted slightly less warm next week and warmer Aug. 24-30. The GFS OP is (by far) the warmest model in the extended-range. The ensembles trend below the consensus forecast. Fig. 1: The daily gas population weight U.S. CDD forecast through August 30. Heat risk next week: Yesterday alerts for anomalous heat were issued for the western U.S. Overnight models trend less hot for the LAX Basin indicating 95 in Burbank TUE/WED (versus 95-100 yesterday). Farther north the heat risk remains intact with risk of 100-102 in Sacramento SAT-MON and again later next week. Boise heat risk lowers slightly, mostly middle 90’s next week. Portland observes one excessive heat day…100 next Tuesday. Model trends: Operational models show a deeper trough in central North America in the 6-10 day period. However, south of the trough surface temperatures trend warmer centered on the southern Plains/Mid-South and Texas. The West Coast is very warm but less warm than yesterday. In the 11-15 day period the upper trough is stronger Montana to North Dakota while favoring a stronger ridge in the East. Madden Julian oscillation: Quasi-stationary in recent weeks over the central Pacific tropics and responsible for upstream excessive rains in the East U.S. the MJO is forecast to shift to the eastern Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent in the medium-range. This regime favors a transitional weather pattern across the U.S. and continued quiet pattern in the tropical North Atlantic. Medium-range forecasts: Cool pattern in the Central U.S. is likely to shift north and Texas turns warmer. Warm SSTA off either coast supports anomalous warmth. Pacific decadal oscillation: The PDO index for July 2018 was issued yesterday at +0.11. This value represents neutral PDO. Neutral PDO has been in-place for 1 year. The last time PDO was neutral for this amount of time was 2009. PDO index tends to run parallel with ENSO phase which is also neutral. The PDO trend does not show an evolving warm phase which would likely occur if El Nino were to develop.