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02/21/2019, 6:57 am EST

Early Energy Market Notes

More cold ahead especially northern states Population weight gas HDD outlook…The new CIC outlook valid through the end of calendar winter indicates exactly normal national HDD next week followed by somewhat colder than normal Mar. 1-7 (and a slightly colder revision). The Mar. 8-14 forecast is adjusted slightly colder. Mar. 15-21 the cold pattern breaks and the outlook could be warmer than indicated. Fig. 1: The NOAA/NWS weather warnings/advisories chart for this morning. Next storms…Southern California power markets hammered again today by unseasonable cold and low elevation snows which extend to Arizona. Yesterday’s Northeast Corridor storm departs New England later today. Another swath of rain unfolds across the Tennessee Valley tomorrow. Severe thunderstorms erupt in the Gulf region Saturday while heavy rain extends from the Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic States. Expect blizzard conditions in Iowa Saturday night. Rain sweeps across New England Saturday except ice across Maine. Next week…Gathering extreme cold arctic air in central Canada extends to the North-central U.S. Monday. The cold sprawls and modifies across all of the North next Tuesday. A near miss storm WED/THU off the Northeast Corridor Coast. Late next week is very cold northern Rockies to New England. There’s risk of a snowstorm late next week into the weekend Northeast Corridor Coast. Medium-range…The 6-10 day forecast is very cold across the northern U.S. especially the Great Plains. The Southeast is still warm and the Southwest is trending warmer. In the 11-15 day period there is conflict amongst models. GFS OP is pushing very cold weather into the East. The ensembles are not quite as cold and their cold core is northern Rockies to Great Lakes region.
12/28/2018, 8:09 am EST

Early Energy Market Notes

Highlight: Great Plains blizzard/Louisiana and Mississippi flooding easing today. Population weight gas home heating degree day forecast…The latest ECM ENS forecast is delayed. Overall consensus is the milder than normal national pattern continues through mid-January. Fig. 1: CWG/Storm Vista lead models gas home heating U.S. HDD forecasts. Extreme weather…Radar estimates 6-8 in. of rain in southwest Mississippi into Louisiana stretching northeast to east-central Mississippi caused by a slow-moving severe weather and heavy rain event which developed yesterday. Flash flood warnings are in effect from Hattiesburg to Demopolis, MS. The excessive rainfall weakens shifting southeast across the far western Florida Panhandle today. The west/north Great Plains blizzard is winding down although high wind causing blowing and drifting snow continues in South Dakota. The snowstorm (featuring blizzard conditions) continues in New Mexico. Finally, sneaky high wind (45-55 mph gusts) were observed across the Ohio Valley yesterday and these wind speeds shift to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S. today likely in the 35-50 mph range. More rain…Another heavy rain event early next week Texas/Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic States. More heavy rain across the Southeast U.S. late next week. A snowy New Year’s Day in Chicago! Warm New Year’s Day in the East but by late next week extreme arctic cold gathers in Eastern Canada and may touch NY/New England. Medium-range…The day 6-10 trend is warmer North and East U.S. while Texas/New Mexico is rain-cooled. An east-shifting MJO episode across the tropical Pacific supports this forecast. In the 11-15 day period much of the nation is warm with marginal cold risk in the Northeast.