08/18/2022, 8:17 am EDT

U.S. Energy Market Early Notes: Heat roars ahead in the West while flooding persists in the Southwest.

Fig. 1-2: ECM hottest day ahead forecast for the Northwest and California. U.S. discussion: Short-term high impact weather is in the West. The excessive heat continues across the Northwest States to California through the weekend. The peak hot day in the Northwest is today. ECM projects high temperatures in the 100-105F range for southwest Idaho to southeast Washington today (Fig. 1). The heat eases slightly the next 2 days and more forcefully into early next week. In California, the hot weather continues through the weekend with the hottest day projected by ECM for Saturday with 110-112F well inland and 90’s not too far from the coast (Fig. 2). In the Southwest U.S., the immense wet monsoon of summer 2022 roars on. The short-term heavy rains are enhanced by entrainment of a tropical low-pressure area that moved across southern Texas earlier this week. Widespread flood risk is apparent for Arizona and New Mexico in the 5-day forecast (Fig. 3). Some of the heavy rain extends to the southern Great Plains. The wet weather pattern continues but with lower intensity later next week (Fig. 4). Fig. 3-4: ECM rainfall forecast for the Southwest U.S. the next 5 days and next week. The latest U.S. population weight CDD forecast reveals the current cool week reverses to warmer than normal to close the last third of August (Fig. 5). Fig. 5: The U.S. population weight CDD forecasts by all models, their consensus and comparison with 48 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year normal.