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12/07/2018, 7:30 am EST

U.S. Early Energy Market Notes

Highlight: Potent Southern U.S. Storm this weekend. Very warm 11-15 day forecast. Population weight gas home heating degree day forecast…Forecast models are agreeable to the U.S. warm-up for mid-to-late December. Fig. 1: CWG/Storm Vista lead models gas home heating U.S. HDD forecasts. Flood risk areas…Flash flooding across Eastern Texas and Louisiana caused by several to as much as 6-7 in. of rain is expected FRI/SAT (Fig. 2). 3-4 in. of rain brings a similar threat to the Southeast U.S. centered on Alabama tomorrow into early Sunday (Fig. 3). Fig. 2-3: The NOAA/WPC flash flood risk areas for FRI (left) and SAT (right). Winter weather profiles… Heavy snow is likely today/tonight in northwest Texas and central Arkansas with high spots of 10+ in. in Texas to 15 in. for Arkansas (Fig. 4). The mid-to-late weekend snowstorm in North Carolina is historic with widespread 18-24 in. causing power outages and blocked roadways for several days after storm (Fig. 5). Fig. 4-5: ECM (model) snowfall forecast for the southern Plains and Carolinas for the weekend snow storm. Medium-range forecasts…Warming across Canada is profound and extends to the Midwest U.S. while the Great Basin and Southeast U.S. are cool in the 6-10 day period. The 11-15 day forecast is very warm. Climate comments… Stratospheric warming occurs across northwest/north portions of North America in the 8-14 day period. Normally, this type of an event would cause evolution of arctic air over Alaska and Northwest Territories during winter. However, this time around that expected regime change is not occurring likely due to the open water surrounding Alaska to the west and northwest of the state. Meanwhile a stratospheric warming event emerging in the 12-16 day period over Eastern Russia rapidly produces temperature departures from normal of -20F to -40F as that location is snow bound and without maritime moderating influences.