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07/19/2019, 9:49 am EDT

Early Energy Market Wire

Not the hottest July week, but possibly the highest heat stress Discussion: The projected U.S. population weight cooling degree day value for the week ending July 18 (and July 25) is in the 93-94 range (Fig. 1). The hottest 3rd (or 4th) week of July since 2000 was the last week in July 2016 which produced a whopping 105 CDD. The 3rd week of July in 2006 observed 102 CDD and the last week in July 2011 registered 101 CDD. While 2019 barely makes the top 5 hottest this year is unique compared to all others since 2000. Much of the Central and East U.S. has record soil moisture (Fig. 2) adding high humidity to the hot weather pattern creating high heat index/heat stress on the public (and energy grid) and causing a gigantic area of excessive heat warnings today (Fig. 3). Fig. 1: Hottest 3rd (and 4th) weeks of July since 2000 using CDD values. Fig. 2: Unlike other hot late July weeks since 2000 in 2019 record wet soils are present causing high heat index/heat stress. Fig. 3: NOAA/NWS excessive heat warnings are widespread! Gas population weight CDD forecast: The outlook continues to stay hotter than normal into early August, a warmer change for early August (Fig. 4). Biasing the higher CDD for early August is a warmer trend in the PJM sector. Fig. 4: U.S. gas population weight CDD forecast using all major models.