Discussion: ALL models indicate a ROBUST Madden Julian oscillation phase_8 in 10 days (and beyond). Represented is an eastward shift of tropical convection from the East Pacific, across the Atlantic and into tropical Africa. During these transitions a following middle latitude trough shifts across the Eastern U.S. supporting a cold (and generally dry) climate pattern. Currently, emphasis is on very cold weather in the West and Central U.S. There is (climate) support for this cold to shift into the East in mid-February. The lower risk mega-clusters identify the East U.S. trough. Bottom line? Risk of colder change mid-February in the high demand energy zone of the Northeast Corridor. Unusual is warming of the North Atlantic basin during February. Normally, the tendency is for cooling (based on seasonality). A similar change occurred early in 2005 especially in the Atlantic tropics. The warming in the tropics is occurring now although not as robust as 2005. Being watched here is pre-tropical season warming of the North Atlantic basin – similar to 2005 – and historically unusual for February. In 2005 a total of 28 tropical cyclones and 15 hurricanes emerged. That’s the (2019 concern). Fig. 1: A robust MJO shifts to phase_8 in 10+ days favoring a cold shift into the East U.S. Fig. 2: Unusual warming (for February) of the North Atlantic basin.