REVISIT El Nino 1986-87 Discussion: There are two interesting aspects to the current El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO): 1. Lack of commitment on part of surface/subsurface warming of the central/east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean to spread eastward and 2. Basin-wide subsurface anomalous warmth in the equatorial region which is strengthening. Subsurface data was not available for the 1986-87 El Nino but surface characteristics are closely related to 2018. In late 1986 an El Nino Modoki developed in which the bulk of the Pacific warming inspiring El Nino was biased toward the Dateline rather than the northwest coast of South America. Using the Nino12 (northwest coast of South America) and Nino34 (east-central equatorial Pacific) index a comparison of 1986 to 2018 reveals similarities (Fig. 1). In 1987 ENSO transitioned from a Modoki to a top 5 long duration El Nino event (Fig. 2). The long duration intense event was likely caused by abundant subsurface warmth in the tropical oceans similar to 2018. Proposed is a similar ENSO regime for 2018-19: El Nino Modoki to strong (conventional) El Nino lasting all of 2019. The modern-day climate is different from the 1980’s in that the global oceans are much warmer now and polar ice cap much more constricted. However, a review of global climate as related to the 1986-87 El Nino is worth reviewing for increasingly likely similarities by ENSO to the 2018-19 climate. Fig. 1: The current Nino12/Nino34 SSTA scheme is similar in character to 1986 in that Nino34 is warmer than Nino12 (usually the opposite is true of a developing El Nino). Fig. 2: After an El Nino Modoki onset in late 1986 a more conventional long duration strong El Nino followed in 1987. Given the massive abundance of subsurface ocean heat in 2018 this scenario is possible for 2019. DEC/JAN/FEB 1986-87: El Nino Modoki was present for meteorological winter (summer) in the northern (southern) hemisphere. EXTREME climate in both hemispheres followed. In North America (after a cold utumn in the U.S.) El Nino onset brought a warmer pattern but focused mostly on Canada and only the northern portion of the Great Plains (Fig. 3) and this scenario is possible for winter 2018-19. Note that most of the U.S. is temperate to cooler than normal. The precipitation pattern was drier than typical El Nino for the West Coast (Fig. 4) with typical stormy conditions of an El Nino confined to the Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. Shock cold (and snow) struck Europe and Western Russia during winter 1986-87 (Fig. 5-6). Fig. 3-4: The 1986-87 winter El Nino Modoki brought less rain/snow than conventional El Nino to the West Coast and a limited Southeast U.S. storm track while most of the El Nino warming was in west/south Canada. Fig. 5-6: The 1986-87 winter El Nino Modoki brought SHOCK cold to Europe and Western Russia and a snowy regime to Central Europe. The southern hemisphere meteorological summer 1986-87 observed El Nino Modoki produce an exceptionally dry climate across Brazil – drier than a normal El Nino episode (Fig. 7). The Australian summer was very dry on the East Coast (Fig. 8). Fig. 7-8: The 1986-87 summer El Nino Modoki produced very dry climate across Brazil and eastern Australia. El Nino lingers and strengthens for JUN/JUL/AUG 2019. Leading into summertime the transition from El Nino Modoki to conventional El Nino leaves the Midwest to Mid-South U.S. dry (Fig. 9). In Europe the reverse is true as wet weather defeats a drought repeat (Fig. 10). Fig. 9-10: Following the winter 1986-87 El Nino Modoki a conventional El Nino developed for 1987. The spring-into-summer precipitation pattern was dry in the East-central U.S. and across Europe. Summary: A particular type of El Nino is ahead. El Nino onset arrives by December 1st. Initially, El Nino is biased by most of the attendant warming near or east of the Dateline. This affect lasts through most of DEC/JAN/FEB 2018-19. The influences on climate are… Failure of expected rains into California. With the exception of the northern Plains typical El Nino warming fails across the U.S. The storm track is most evident in the Gulf States to the Carolinas. Implications for Europe and Western Russia is potential shock cold. A drought develops and widens in Brazil. Eastern Australia drought is intense. El Nino Modoki transitions to a conventional El Nino in 2019 and lasts ALL year. A few implications include… Potential drought for the Midwest/Mid-South U.S. leading into summer. No Europe drought as rains ease that risk. Very limited tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic for 2019.