Highlight: Latest NOAA/CPC long-lead climate forecasts. Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC U.S. seasonal drought outlook. Discussion: NOAA/CPC issues new long-lead climate forecasts including a new seasonal drought monitor (Fig. 1). The seasonal drought outlook indicates several important changes. First, the drought across Texas and Oklahoma is forecast to continue but weaken considerably over the next 1-3 months. Drought is eliminated in parts of the Mid-south States. The drought across the west/central Great Plains continues and also affects southern Iowa and parts of Minnesota. Drought development is likely in the western Dakotas. The Southwest U.S. drought continues to ease while California/Great Basin drought stays torrid. The September 2022 outlook favors late season heat across the southwest sector of the U.S. with warm/humid weather in New England (Fig. 2). Dry climate is dominant in the North-central U.S. while the Southeast trends wet (Fig. 3). The meteorological autumn forecast favors anomalous warmth across most of the U.S. (Fig. 4) with dryness dominating the West-central U.S. eastward to the Appalachian Spine. Only Florida and Washington have a wet risk for the autumn season (Fig. 5). The winter outlook favors warmth across the South and East U.S. with equal chances of below, above or normal in the Central U.S. (Fig. 6). The precipitation outlook indicates classic La Nina climate with dryness across California and the remainder of the Southern U.S. (Fig. 7). Stormy risk is centered on the Ohio Valley. Fig. 2-3: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for September 2022. Fig. 4-5: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for SEP/OCT/NOV 2022. Fig. 6-7: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23.  

Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC extreme heat risk areas for the medium-range and annotated highest temperature. Discussion: NOAA/CPC indicates extreme heat risk beginning August 3 (next Wednesday) in the Great Plains to Texas, East-central U.S. and Mid-south States and into the East lasting to August 9 (Fig. 1). The most intense heat is mid-to-late next week in South Dakota/Nebraska where maximum temperature approaches 110F. The Midwest U.S. will observe the hottest part of summer so far with widespread low 100’s likely possibly reaching 105F in Iowa late next week. Highs in the low 100’s are expected in the Delta region while Texas easily reaches 105F with a few places approaching 110F. In the East 95-100 is expected with low 100’s centered on Virginia. The NOAA temperature probability forecast for 8-14 days from now highlights the high risk of extreme heat centered on the Midwest States (Fig. 2). The mega-cluster ensemble identifies the most likely position of the titanic upper-level ridge driving the anomalous heat over the Great Lakes region (Fig. 3). In 15 days, the mega-cluster ensemble projects the ridge pattern to remain in-place centered on Wisconsin (Fig. 4). Fig. 2: NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature forecast for days 8-14 ahead. Fig. 3: The mega-cluster ensemble projects the most likely upper air pattern in 10 days which identifies a super ridge pattern centered on the Great Lakes. Fig. 4: The mega-cluster ensemble projects the most likely upper air pattern in 15 days which identifies  

Highlight: Enhanced Solar/Wind Combination ERCOT Sunday Fig. 1: GFS projection of solar potential for mid-afternoon on Sunday May 29, 2022. Discussion: A relatively unique combination of exceptional solar power potential and wind power potential presents itself Sunday afternoon across Texas. The GFS potential downward short-wave radiation flux is in the 75-80% of capacity range across most of Texas mid-afternoon on Sunday (Fig. 1). Higher values are to the west into New Mexico. A gusty south to southwest wind is forecast for Sunday. Consequently, potential wind power generation is 90-95% of full potential (Fig. 2). The combination of high solar/wind power potential peaks on Sunday. Clouds increase on Monday. Fig. 2: GFS projection of wind power potential for mid-afternoon on Sunday May 29, 2022.

Highlights: General guidance for traders/analysts on U.S. winter 2021-22 climate. Discussion: Winter forecasts for a suddenly “hot” natural gas market will be flooding email boxes/web sites/social media ahead and offering some general guidance on what to expect is in order. There are two “science-based” possibilities right now. The NOAA Outlook (Fig. 1) is the (most) simple view. Their forecast is based on the climatology of an expected La Nina and optimum climate normal (OCN) which is a 10-to-15-year climatology. La Nina typically brings cold and wet (snowy) weather to West Canada/Northwest U.S. while the South is dry and warm. Using OCN the winter outlook is adjusted warmer in the East. Option 2 is the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society forecast which is colder into the North-central and Northeast U.S. (Fig. 2). The IRI forecast develops the West Canada cold similar to NOAA but the clash of cold and warmth to the south creates an energetic snow producing climate and the cold shifts from its Canadian source region south across the snow cover from the Great Plains to the Northeast U.S. The preliminary Climate Impact Company (CIC) Outlook (issued in July and I’ll update this soon) indicates a warm Southwest U.S. winter season while New England is mild (Fig. 3). The cold pattern is there…into the North-central U.S. The CIC forecast maintains warm SSTA off the U.S. East Coast which makes cold air reluctant to reach the East Coast from its Canadian source region. In summary, a good old-fashioned cold winter is hard to generate given the warm middle/northern latitude oceans. The key to cold is generating snow cover which is possible to do in a (warm) ocean climate. Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC temperature probability forecast for upcoming winter. Fig. 2: IRI temperature probability forecast for upcoming winter. Fig. 3: CIC temperature anomaly forecast for upcoming winter based on a constructed analog.