Fig. 1-2: ECM ENS upper air and temperature anomaly forecast for the 11-15-day period indicates a colder trend. Discussion: The just-issued ECM Ensemble 11-15-day forecast indicates a colder-than-normal national temperature anomaly solution, a colder trend since yesterday. However, given the robust -NAO pattern which develops in the 6-10-day period and the time needed to influence the U.S. pattern, the colder look to the 11-15-day period is justified. The upper air forecast indicates a polar vortex over James Bay and potent trough capable of generating storms mainly off the U.S. East Coast located east of New England (Fig. 1). The deepening upper trough (Fig. 2) generates locally cold air over the East U.S. with enhancement from the snow covered North-central U.S. helping to enhance cold. Precipitation is (initially) mostly offshore.    

Highlight: Enhanced Solar/Wind Combination ERCOT Sunday Fig. 1: GFS projection of solar potential for mid-afternoon on Sunday May 29, 2022. Discussion: A relatively unique combination of exceptional solar power potential and wind power potential presents itself Sunday afternoon across Texas. The GFS potential downward short-wave radiation flux is in the 75-80% of capacity range across most of Texas mid-afternoon on Sunday (Fig. 1). Higher values are to the west into New Mexico. A gusty south to southwest wind is forecast for Sunday. Consequently, potential wind power generation is 90-95% of full potential (Fig. 2). The combination of high solar/wind power potential peaks on Sunday. Clouds increase on Monday. Fig. 2: GFS projection of wind power potential for mid-afternoon on Sunday May 29, 2022.

Highlights: General guidance for traders/analysts on U.S. winter 2021-22 climate. Discussion: Winter forecasts for a suddenly “hot” natural gas market will be flooding email boxes/web sites/social media ahead and offering some general guidance on what to expect is in order. There are two “science-based” possibilities right now. The NOAA Outlook (Fig. 1) is the (most) simple view. Their forecast is based on the climatology of an expected La Nina and optimum climate normal (OCN) which is a 10-to-15-year climatology. La Nina typically brings cold and wet (snowy) weather to West Canada/Northwest U.S. while the South is dry and warm. Using OCN the winter outlook is adjusted warmer in the East. Option 2 is the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society forecast which is colder into the North-central and Northeast U.S. (Fig. 2). The IRI forecast develops the West Canada cold similar to NOAA but the clash of cold and warmth to the south creates an energetic snow producing climate and the cold shifts from its Canadian source region south across the snow cover from the Great Plains to the Northeast U.S. The preliminary Climate Impact Company (CIC) Outlook (issued in July and I’ll update this soon) indicates a warm Southwest U.S. winter season while New England is mild (Fig. 3). The cold pattern is there…into the North-central U.S. The CIC forecast maintains warm SSTA off the U.S. East Coast which makes cold air reluctant to reach the East Coast from its Canadian source region. In summary, a good old-fashioned cold winter is hard to generate given the warm middle/northern latitude oceans. The key to cold is generating snow cover which is possible to do in a (warm) ocean climate. Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC temperature probability forecast for upcoming winter. Fig. 2: IRI temperature probability forecast for upcoming winter. Fig. 3: CIC temperature anomaly forecast for upcoming winter based on a constructed analog.  

ECM model indicates a winter storm early next week in the East. Fig. 1-3: ECM depiction of a winter storm early next week. Freezing rain/icing is a significant part of this storm affecting the Mid-Atlantic to Ohio Valley while significant (4-8 in.) snowfall extends from the northern Ohio Valley to southern New England.   Discussion: Today’s afternoon “European Model” indicated an evolving storm late Sunday night/early Monday centered on Missouri (Fig. 1) shifting toward West Virginia Monday evening (Fig. 2) and offshore the northern Mid-Atlantic States Tuesday morning (Fig. 3). A wide range of weather is produced by this storm. Most notable is a set-up for freezing rain/icing. Freezing rain could occur as far south as central Virginia early Monday but more organized with significant accretion possible in Maryland/Pennsylvania/New Jersey/Delaware westward to the southern Ohio Valley on Monday. Significant snow (4-8 in.) is likely across Iowa to the northern Ohio Valley and eastward to southern New England into Tuesday. There’s a nice fetch of cold air out of Canada into this system so the wintery regime described is reliable at this early juncture.