Highlight: NOAA/CPC Spring Flood Risk Fig. 1: The NOAA/CPC spring 2023 flood risk forecast. Discussion: The NOAA/CPC flood risk forecast was issued earlier today (Fig. 1). Primary flood risk areas are Central California and the northern to central Mississippi River. The catalysts to California flood risk is the melting of the historic California snowfall during the winter 2022-23 season. The catalyst to the flood risk in the Upper/Central Mississippi River is the combination of snowmelt and a wet spring. The snowmelt will bring much-needed water to Lake Meade and Lake Powell and much of the Colorado River Basin. Snowmelt is the best way for these areas to collect water as shielding of high terrain to the west frequently blocks the effectiveness of the Pacific storm track. The wet weather projected for springtime in the Mississippi River Valley (and eastward) is in-part due to the ample low-level atmosphere moisture supply from the historic warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico (Fig. 2). Cold fronts moving into the Great Plains inspiring a southerly draw of moisture from the Gulf could also cause a stronger than normal severe weather season for the northwest Gulf of Mexico to the Midwest States. Fig. 2: The warmer than normal SSTA regime across the Gulf of Mexico.      

U.S. Summer 2022 Climate Review Discussion: The U.S. meteorological summer 2022 season ranked 3rd hottest in the 128-year historical record. During summer, 25 of the 48 contiguous states recorded all-time top-10 hottest summer seasons on record (Fig. 1). Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Texas experienced their 2nd hottest summer on record followed by California and New Jersey where the 3rd hottest summer was observed. All states except for Wisconsin were warmer than normal. Meteorological summer ranked 44th driest on record although that ranking was created by a wide mix of wet and dry zones. Arizona, New Mexico, Mississippi, and West Virginia were each much wetter than normal during the summer season (Fig. 2). The Southwest U.S. observed a strong summertime wet monsoon in 2022. A very dry climate for summer 2022 was observed in Nebraska and the coastal Northeast Corridor. A major drought evolved and centered on Nebraska during the summer season. June 2022 was the 15th hottest on record. Five Southern U.S. States observed all-time to-10 hottest early summer climate (Fig. 3). Although Washington/Oregon and Arizona/New Mexico were very wet in June, the majority of the U.S. was very dry especially in Nebraska and the Southeast U.S. (Fig. 4). The national rank for June was 12th driest on record. The dry national climate to start the warm season inevitably leads to a scorching hot mid-summer regime. July 2022 ranked 3rd hottest on record. Texas observed their hottest July on record (Fig. 5). A total of 21 states in the lower 48 contiguous U.S. observed all-time top-10 hottest summer seasons. July was notable for severe squalls in northwest flow aloft bringing historic rains to Kentucky and West Virginia (Fig. 6). The 4th wettest July on record was observed in Kentucky. Conversely, historical dryness occurred during July in Texas and New Jersey to Rhode Island. August 2022 brought more hot weather (ranking 8th hottest nationally) including record heat for 8 states: Washington, Oregon, Idaho, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire (Fig. 7). August 2022 was somewhat wetter than normal, ranking 19th wettest all-time. Mississippi received their wettest late summer on record while Nevada and Louisiana were each 3rd wettest on record (Fig. 8). Hot weather continued during the first month of meteorological autumn. September 2022 ranked 5th hottest on record nationally and included record heat for Nevada and Utah (Fig. 9). The U.S. ranked 10th driest on record for September due to a large swath of very dry weather stretched across the Central U.S. Fig: 1: NOAA state rankings for temperature for meteorological summer 2022. Fig: 2: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for meteorological summer 2022. Fig: 3: NOAA state rankings for temperature for June 2022. Fig: 4: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for June 2022. Fig: 5: NOAA state rankings for temperature during July 2022. Fig: 6: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for July 2022. Fig: 7: NOAA state rankings for temperature for August 2022. Fig: 8: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for August 2022. Fig: 9: NOAA state rankings for temperature for September 2022. Fig: 10: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for September 2022.      

Highlight: Enhanced Solar/Wind Combination ERCOT Sunday Fig. 1: GFS projection of solar potential for mid-afternoon on Sunday May 29, 2022. Discussion: A relatively unique combination of exceptional solar power potential and wind power potential presents itself Sunday afternoon across Texas. The GFS potential downward short-wave radiation flux is in the 75-80% of capacity range across most of Texas mid-afternoon on Sunday (Fig. 1). Higher values are to the west into New Mexico. A gusty south to southwest wind is forecast for Sunday. Consequently, potential wind power generation is 90-95% of full potential (Fig. 2). The combination of high solar/wind power potential peaks on Sunday. Clouds increase on Monday. Fig. 2: GFS projection of wind power potential for mid-afternoon on Sunday May 29, 2022.

Highlights: General guidance for traders/analysts on U.S. winter 2021-22 climate. Discussion: Winter forecasts for a suddenly “hot” natural gas market will be flooding email boxes/web sites/social media ahead and offering some general guidance on what to expect is in order. There are two “science-based” possibilities right now. The NOAA Outlook (Fig. 1) is the (most) simple view. Their forecast is based on the climatology of an expected La Nina and optimum climate normal (OCN) which is a 10-to-15-year climatology. La Nina typically brings cold and wet (snowy) weather to West Canada/Northwest U.S. while the South is dry and warm. Using OCN the winter outlook is adjusted warmer in the East. Option 2 is the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society forecast which is colder into the North-central and Northeast U.S. (Fig. 2). The IRI forecast develops the West Canada cold similar to NOAA but the clash of cold and warmth to the south creates an energetic snow producing climate and the cold shifts from its Canadian source region south across the snow cover from the Great Plains to the Northeast U.S. The preliminary Climate Impact Company (CIC) Outlook (issued in July and I’ll update this soon) indicates a warm Southwest U.S. winter season while New England is mild (Fig. 3). The cold pattern is there…into the North-central U.S. The CIC forecast maintains warm SSTA off the U.S. East Coast which makes cold air reluctant to reach the East Coast from its Canadian source region. In summary, a good old-fashioned cold winter is hard to generate given the warm middle/northern latitude oceans. The key to cold is generating snow cover which is possible to do in a (warm) ocean climate. Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC temperature probability forecast for upcoming winter. Fig. 2: IRI temperature probability forecast for upcoming winter. Fig. 3: CIC temperature anomaly forecast for upcoming winter based on a constructed analog.