Highlight: U.S. summer ranked 9th hottest on record. Louisiana hardest hit for heat and dryness. Discussion: The August 2023 state rankings for temperature and precipitation were released by NOAA a short time ago. In August, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida observed their hottest August in the 129-year climatology (Fig. 1). Another 9 states observed top 10 hottest on record including the second hottest August on record for Texas. The national rank for August was 9th hottest on record. The Ohio Valley to New England observed near normal temperature. Nationally, the month of August was 42nd wettest on record and featured many extremes (Fig. 2). California and Nevada observed their 2nd wettest August on record while a total of 11 states received their top 10 wettest months of late summer. Meanwhile, Louisiana experienced their driest August on record. Texas and Mississippi each observed top 10 driest months of August. The meteorological summer 2023 season was the 15th hottest on record for the U.S. (Fig. 3). Louisiana observed their hottest summer on record. Texas and Florida observed their 2nd hottest summer on record. New Mexico and Mississippi observed a top-6 hottest summer season. The Ohio and Tennessee Valley(s) managed a slightly cooler than normal summer of 2023. Extreme precipitation was observed for meteorological summer 2023. The wettest summertime on record was witnessed in Wyoming, Vermont, and New Hampshire (Fig. 4). Top 10 wettest August on record were observed in 8 other states including California and Maine. Dry conditions stretched across the Southwest U.S. to Louisiana. New Mexico and Louisiana observed their 3rd driest summer seasons on record. The Upper Midwest observed a top-5 driest summer. Fig. 1: NOAA state rankings for August 2023 temperature based on the 129-year climatology.   Fig. 2: NOAA state rankings for August 2023 precipitation based on the 129-year climatology.   Fig. 3: NOAA state rankings for JUN/JUL/AUG 2023 temperature based on the 129-year climatology.   Fig. 4: NOAA state rankings for JUN/JUL/AUG 2023 precipitation based on the 129-year climatology.    

U.S. Summer 2022 Climate Review Discussion: The U.S. meteorological summer 2022 season ranked 3rd hottest in the 128-year historical record. During summer, 25 of the 48 contiguous states recorded all-time top-10 hottest summer seasons on record (Fig. 1). Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Texas experienced their 2nd hottest summer on record followed by California and New Jersey where the 3rd hottest summer was observed. All states except for Wisconsin were warmer than normal. Meteorological summer ranked 44th driest on record although that ranking was created by a wide mix of wet and dry zones. Arizona, New Mexico, Mississippi, and West Virginia were each much wetter than normal during the summer season (Fig. 2). The Southwest U.S. observed a strong summertime wet monsoon in 2022. A very dry climate for summer 2022 was observed in Nebraska and the coastal Northeast Corridor. A major drought evolved and centered on Nebraska during the summer season. June 2022 was the 15th hottest on record. Five Southern U.S. States observed all-time to-10 hottest early summer climate (Fig. 3). Although Washington/Oregon and Arizona/New Mexico were very wet in June, the majority of the U.S. was very dry especially in Nebraska and the Southeast U.S. (Fig. 4). The national rank for June was 12th driest on record. The dry national climate to start the warm season inevitably leads to a scorching hot mid-summer regime. July 2022 ranked 3rd hottest on record. Texas observed their hottest July on record (Fig. 5). A total of 21 states in the lower 48 contiguous U.S. observed all-time top-10 hottest summer seasons. July was notable for severe squalls in northwest flow aloft bringing historic rains to Kentucky and West Virginia (Fig. 6). The 4th wettest July on record was observed in Kentucky. Conversely, historical dryness occurred during July in Texas and New Jersey to Rhode Island. August 2022 brought more hot weather (ranking 8th hottest nationally) including record heat for 8 states: Washington, Oregon, Idaho, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire (Fig. 7). August 2022 was somewhat wetter than normal, ranking 19th wettest all-time. Mississippi received their wettest late summer on record while Nevada and Louisiana were each 3rd wettest on record (Fig. 8). Hot weather continued during the first month of meteorological autumn. September 2022 ranked 5th hottest on record nationally and included record heat for Nevada and Utah (Fig. 9). The U.S. ranked 10th driest on record for September due to a large swath of very dry weather stretched across the Central U.S. Fig: 1: NOAA state rankings for temperature for meteorological summer 2022. Fig: 2: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for meteorological summer 2022. Fig: 3: NOAA state rankings for temperature for June 2022. Fig: 4: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for June 2022. Fig: 5: NOAA state rankings for temperature during July 2022. Fig: 6: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for July 2022. Fig: 7: NOAA state rankings for temperature for August 2022. Fig: 8: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for August 2022. Fig: 9: NOAA state rankings for temperature for September 2022. Fig: 10: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for September 2022.      

Highlight: Enhanced Solar/Wind Combination ERCOT Sunday Fig. 1: GFS projection of solar potential for mid-afternoon on Sunday May 29, 2022. Discussion: A relatively unique combination of exceptional solar power potential and wind power potential presents itself Sunday afternoon across Texas. The GFS potential downward short-wave radiation flux is in the 75-80% of capacity range across most of Texas mid-afternoon on Sunday (Fig. 1). Higher values are to the west into New Mexico. A gusty south to southwest wind is forecast for Sunday. Consequently, potential wind power generation is 90-95% of full potential (Fig. 2). The combination of high solar/wind power potential peaks on Sunday. Clouds increase on Monday. Fig. 2: GFS projection of wind power potential for mid-afternoon on Sunday May 29, 2022.

Highlights: General guidance for traders/analysts on U.S. winter 2021-22 climate. Discussion: Winter forecasts for a suddenly “hot” natural gas market will be flooding email boxes/web sites/social media ahead and offering some general guidance on what to expect is in order. There are two “science-based” possibilities right now. The NOAA Outlook (Fig. 1) is the (most) simple view. Their forecast is based on the climatology of an expected La Nina and optimum climate normal (OCN) which is a 10-to-15-year climatology. La Nina typically brings cold and wet (snowy) weather to West Canada/Northwest U.S. while the South is dry and warm. Using OCN the winter outlook is adjusted warmer in the East. Option 2 is the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society forecast which is colder into the North-central and Northeast U.S. (Fig. 2). The IRI forecast develops the West Canada cold similar to NOAA but the clash of cold and warmth to the south creates an energetic snow producing climate and the cold shifts from its Canadian source region south across the snow cover from the Great Plains to the Northeast U.S. The preliminary Climate Impact Company (CIC) Outlook (issued in July and I’ll update this soon) indicates a warm Southwest U.S. winter season while New England is mild (Fig. 3). The cold pattern is there…into the North-central U.S. The CIC forecast maintains warm SSTA off the U.S. East Coast which makes cold air reluctant to reach the East Coast from its Canadian source region. In summary, a good old-fashioned cold winter is hard to generate given the warm middle/northern latitude oceans. The key to cold is generating snow cover which is possible to do in a (warm) ocean climate. Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC temperature probability forecast for upcoming winter. Fig. 2: IRI temperature probability forecast for upcoming winter. Fig. 3: CIC temperature anomaly forecast for upcoming winter based on a constructed analog.