12/04/2023, 11:40 am EST

Weekly ENSO Diagnostics Report: The upper ocean heat increasing east of Dateline.

Fig. 1-4: The 12-week Nino SSTA observations, daily upper ocean heat east of the Dateline, equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat monthly values for the past year, and the IRI/LDEO Nino34 SSTA forecast into Q3/2024. Discussion: Today’s ENSO update reveals that Nino34 SSTA remains robustly warm but slightly cooler than last week which was the warmest signature of El Nino 2023-24 thus far (Fig. 1).  The daily upper ocean heat east of the Dateline across the equatorial Pacific indicates significant warming in recent days (Fig. 2). Monthly values dating back one year also indicate the subsurface equatorial Pacific warming fueling the El Nino episode shifting intensity to the east of the Dateline (Fig. 3). A collection of all dynamic and statistical forecast models of the Nino34 SSTA reveals peaking El Nino during the next 1-2 months followed by weakening to neutral phase middle of 2024 (Fig. 4). The NCEP CFS V2 forecast continues to indicate La Nina for the second half of 2024.