08/08/2022, 1:11 pm EDT

Weekly ENSO Diagnostics Discussion

Highlight: La Nina regenerating/restrengthening. Discussion: La Nina weakened during June/July. However, Nino SSTA regions are trending cooler into early August and Nino34 has dipped to -10.C which represents a moderate-strength La Nina (Fig. 1). The southern oscillation index (SOI) remains on a remarkably lengthy positive phase signature which is representative of a strong La Nina climate pattern. The +SOI enables stronger than normal trade winds up-welling subsurface cooler water which has cooled further during the past 2-3 weeks (Fig. 2). The cooling trend in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean foreshadows further La Nina strengthening for AUG/SEP ahead. Fig. 1: The 12-week Nino SSTA regions trend. Fig. 2: Equatorial East Pacific subsurface temperature anomalies.