News
08/12/2022, 1:56 pm EDT
Highlight: At 12Z, GFS is warmer in the Great Plains for the medium-range. Fig. 1-3: The 12Z GFS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast and the change from 24 hours ago for the 15-day outlook. Midday 12Z GFS discussion: Forecast trend by 12Z GFS is warmer in the Central U.S. for the medium-range. The warmer changes are centered on Texas in the 6-10-day period (Fig. 1). In the 11-15-day forecast the model trends somewhat warmer for most of the Great Plains (Fig. 2). The Northwest U.S. is the heat source region and the inevitable eastward expansion is identified by today’s 12Z GFS. The 15-day rainfall forecast indicates a much wetter pattern for the Mid-south and Upper Midwest U.S. (Fig. 3). The population weight CDD forecast is notably warmer for the last 10+ days of August (Table 1). Dates CDD Forecast 12-Hr Change 24 Hours Ago 10-Year NML 30-Year NML Aug. 12-18 69.5 -1.9 70.2 78.0 74.4 Aug. 19-25 92.6 +8.7 90.0 75.6 70.7 Aug. 26-Sep. 1 80.2 +7.7 72.5 71.3 65.3 Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.
08/12/2022, 12:02 pm EDT
Highlight: Calgary heatwave. Cool break in the East- wet early next week. Refineries… Delaware City, DE and Paulsboro, NJ: Seasonably warm with lower humidity through the weekend. A mix of clouds and sun during that time. The next batch of rain could bring 1-2 in. beginning late Sunday night and lasting into Tuesday. Mainly a rain event, not severe storms. Cooler upper 70’s MON/TUE. Toledo, OH: The heat is gone! Next shower risk is Saturday night/Sunday. Otherwise, fair skies with below normal temperatures. New Orleans, LA: A weak tropical low-pressure area is on the coast and will focus 3-4 days of thundershowers. By Tuesday, the rain breaks. California Market… Martinez (near Concord): Sunny and warm. Highs near 85 FRI/SAT to the low 90’s by early next week. A moderate west-southwest wind. Torrance, CA (using Santa Maria, CA): No major changes as the marine pattern holds. Night fogs break for afternoon sun with highs approaching 80 each day. HQ… Parsippany: Big break in the heat as seasonably warm temperatures has evolved for the weekend. Mix of clouds and sun and a shower or two can’t be ruled out. Rainfall event for MON/TUE featuring possible heavy amount. A winter-type storm with low pressure stalling offshore. Houston… Thunderstorms threaten through the weekend. Largest threat is today and Saturday. Mostly sunny and trending hotter early next week. Calgary… Ongoing heat wave and a Heat Warning is posted. Highs near 90F today and Saturday but staying in the 80’s into mid-next week. Drought is developing across Southern/Western Canada which will increase wild fire risk.
08/12/2022, 9:15 am EDT
Charts of the day: High impact weather and soil moisture condition. Discussion: The latest heatwave strikes France/U.K./Germany and the eastern Black Sea region the next few days. Mid-to-late next week brings 1-2 in. of rain to the northern British Islands and France plus to Poland. Soil moisture anomalies reveal the Europe drought continues to worsen as mid-August approaches. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid August 22-28, 2022: Heat core Southwest Russia; Europe still very warm but not as dry. Discussion: Excessive heat continues in Southwest/South Russia where 35-38C is likely. Europe remains very warm but excessive heat should ease. The outlook features risk of showers as widespread dryness eases in Europe. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid August 29-September 4, 2022: Outlook is still very warm; intense dryness Spain/Greece. Discussion: Continued very warm Europe to the Black Sea region. General dryness is intact although spot showers are possible from France to Germany to Ukraine. Drought conditions are steady. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid September 5-11, 2022: Europe temperatures ease back. More showery. Discussion: Definitely a trend toward wetter weather and tempered heat in Europe.
08/12/2022, 9:10 am EDT
Highlight: Monthly peak temperature on Monday followed by SHARP cooler pattern change. August/September Discussion Using Little Rock as an example, the heat of summer 2022 continues through the weekend and the monthly peak (97F) is possible on Monday. After that, a much cooler pattern is ahead. The August CDD is lowered sharply to near or slightly below normal! Similarly, the Fort Smith/Fayetteville area remain hot and monthly peak is possible ahead of cooler pattern change on Monday as Fort Smith may reach 102F and Fayetteville 98F. Monthly CDD are revised sharply lower due to the cooler pattern that follows. Jonesboro has observed their August peak and may reach 91F Sunday before the cooler pattern change. Cooling Degree Forecast Fort Smith, AR June July August September 2022 Forecast 472 (OBS) 730 (OBS) 555 361 Previous 8/1 599 361 10-YR NML 462 574 527 373 30-YR NML 423 568 547 313 2021 429 525 584 408 2020 452 595 463 266 Peak Day 6/25 (100/78) 7/19 (108/79) 7/27 (106/82) 8/3 (101/77) 8/15 (102/77) Table 1: Climate Impact Company monthly CDD forecast for Fort Smith, AR. Fayetteville, AR June July August September 2022 Forecast 350 (OBS) 599 (OBS) 395 224 Previous 8/1 439 224 10-YR NML 303 404 356 214 30-YR NML 280 409 390 178 2021 323 382 438 273 2020 328 443 327 169 Peak Day 6/25 (96/76) 7/26 (104/81) 8/3 (96/76) 8/15 (98/75) Table 2: Climate Impact Company monthly CDD forecast for Fayetteville, AR. Jonesboro, AR June July August September 2022 Forecast 467 (OBS) 615 (OBS) 402 279 Previous 8/1 454 279 10-YR NML 356 456 380 270 30-YR NML 356 449 421 235 2021 343 446 424 241 2020 328 500 385 217 Peak Day 6/22 (101/76) 7/8 (102/81) 8/7 (92/74) Table 3: Climate Impact Company monthly CDD forecast for Jonesboro, AR. Little Rock, AR June July August September 2022 Forecast 480 (OBS) 675 (OBS) 535 369 Previous 8/1 581 369 10-YR NML 437 549 515 365 30-YR NML 436 557 540 325 2021 416 515 552 350 2020 382 546 480 266 Peak Day 6/22 (100/76) 7/9 (102/81) 7/26 (103/80) 8/2-3 (95/75) 8/8 (96/73) 8/15 (97/73) Table 4: Climate Impact Company monthly CDD forecast for Little Rock, AR.