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11/28/2022, 4:04 pm EST

Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley 5-Day Weather Alert

Highlight: WED and SAT active cold fronts. Richmond, VA… TUE: Sunny. High 59. Low 53. WED: Showers and thunderstorms. High 64. Low 32. THU: Mostly sunny. High 51. Low 30. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 54. Low 49. SAT: Showers, may thunder. High 63. Low 34. Days 6-10: +6.0. 90% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -1.5. 70% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 56. Low 35. Charleston, WV… TUE: Mostly sunny. High 60. Low 50. WED: Showers, windy. High 60. Low 24. THU: Mostly sunny. High 42. Low 27. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 55. Low 47. SAT: Showers, breezy. High 56. Low 30. Days 6-10: +6.0. 130% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -1.0. 90% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 52. Low 33. Baltimore, MD… TUE: Sunny. High 53. Low 50. WED: Showers, may thunder. High 62. Low 29. THU: Mostly sunny. High 47. Low 30. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 51. Low 44. SAT: Showers, breezy. High 61. Low 31. Days 6-10: +2.5. 110% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -1.0. 60% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 52. Low 33. Philadelphia, PA… TUE: Sunny. High 50. Low 48. WED: Showers, may thunder. High 61. Low 31. THU: Mostly sunny. High 45. Low 30. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 49. Low 44. SAT: Showers, breezy. High 60. Low 33. Days 6-10: +1.5. 110% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -1.5. 50% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 51. Low 35. New York City, NY… TUE: Sunny. High 48. Low 46. WED: Showers, windy. High 59. Low 36. THU: Mostly sunny. High 45. Low 35. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 47. Low 43. SAT: Showers, windy. High 57. Low 35. Days 6-10: +1.5. 90% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -1.5. 50% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 50. Low 39. Albany, NY… TUE: Mostly sunny. High 45. Low 43. WED: Showers, breezy. High 55. Low 27. THU: Rain/snow showers. High 40. Low 27. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 44. Low 40. SAT: Showers, windy. High 53. Low 26. Days 6-10: +1.0. 90% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -1.5. 50% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 44. Low 28. Hartford, CT… TUE: Sunny. High 48. Low 42. WED: Showers, breezy. Rainy at night. High 57. Low 28. THU: Partly cloudy. High 43. Low 28. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 47. Low 43. SAT: Showers, windy. High 56. Low 27. Days 6-10: +1.0. 70% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -2.0. 50% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 46. Low 29. Boston, MA… TUE: Sunny. High 47. Low 44. WED: Showers, breezy. Rainy at night. High 57. Low 32. THU: Partly cloudy. High 43. Low 31. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 46. Low 42. SAT: Showers, windy. High 56. Low 32. Days 6-10: +1.0. 70% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -1.5. 50% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 47. Low 34. Binghamton, NY… TUE: Mostly sunny. Clouds at night. High 41. Low 37. WED: Rainy, breezy. High 50. Low 26. THU: Snow showers. High 34. Low 24. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 40. Low 38. SAT: Showers, windy. High 48. Low 25. Days 6-10: +1.5. 110% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -2.5. 70% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 40. Low 27. Williamsport, PA… TUE: Mostly sunny. High 47. Low 44. WED: Rainy, windy. High 57. Low 27. THU: Mostly sunny. High 43. Low 26. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 44. Low 42. SAT: Showers, windy. High 52. Low 26. Days 6-10: +2.0. 110% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -2.0. 70% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 45. Low 30. Pittsburgh, PA… TUE: Mostly sunny. Showers late at night. High 52. Low 46. WED: Rainy, windy. High 57. Low 24. THU: Mostly sunny. High 37. Low 26. FRI: Partly cloudy, breezy. High 48. Low 45. SAT: Showers, breezy. High 53. Low 26. Days 6-10: +2.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -1.5. 90% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 46. Low 31. Cleveland, OH… TUE: Mostly sunny. Showers at night. High 55. Low 47. WED: Rainy, windy. High 58. Low 25. THU: Mostly sunny. High 37. Low 27. FRI: Partly cloudy, windy. High 51. Low 43. SAT: Partial clearing, breezy. High 54. Low 27. Days 6-10: +1.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -2.0. 90% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 46. Low 33. Toledo, OH… TUE: Increasing clouds, breezy. Showers at night. High 57. Low 41. WED: Rain ending; windy. High 50. Low 24. THU: Mostly sunny. High 38. Low 28. FRI: Partly cloudy, windy. High 52. Low 37. SAT: Partial clearing, breezy. High 54. Low 25. Days 6-10: +1.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -2.0. 90% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 45. Low 30. Columbus, OH… TUE: Increasing clouds. Showery, breezy at night. High 57. Low 38. WED: Rain ending; breezy. High 51. Low 23. THU: Mostly sunny. High 39. Low 28. FRI: Partly cloudy, windy. High 52. Low 39. SAT: Partly cloudy, breezy. High 56. Low 27. Days 6-10: +2.5. 130% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -1.5. 90% normal precipitation. Normal: High 46. Low 31. Covington, KY… TUE: Increasing clouds. Showery, windy at night. High 62. Low 41. WED: Rain ending. High 51. Low 24. THU: Sunny. High 41. Low 30. FRI: Partly cloudy, windy. High 53. Low 42. SAT: Partly cloudy, breezy. High 56. Low 31. Days 6-10: +4.5. 140% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -1.5. 90% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 48. Low 31. Columbia, SC… TUE: Mostly sunny. Showers toward morning. High 69. Low 53. WED: Showers/thunderstorms. High 67. Low 36. THU: Sunny. High 55. Low 36. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 59. Low 52. SAT: Showers, may thunder. High 67. Low 46. Days 6-10: +7.0. 90% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -0.5. 80% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 62. Low 39. Charleston, SC… TUE: Mostly sunny. High 74. Low 53. WED: Showers/thunderstorms. High 74. Low 42. THU: Sunny. High 59. Low 41. FRI: Mostly cloudy. High 67. Low 53. SAT: Showers, may thunder. High 74. Low 52. Days 6-10: +7.0. 30% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -1.0. 70% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 66. Low 44. Houston, TX… TUE: Showers likely; risk of a thunderstorm. High 83. Low 59. WED: Partly cloudy. High 71. Low 41. THU: Partly cloudy. High 61. Low 53. FRI: Mostly cloudy. High 76. Low 62. SAT: Chance of showers. High 79. Low 60. Days 6-10: +9.0. 50% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.5. 70% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 69. Low 48. Birmingham, AL… TUE: Increasing clouds. Strong thunderstorms at night. High 70. Low 59. WED: Rain ending. High 68. Low 34. THU: Mostly sunny. High 54. Low 41. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 59. Low 53. SAT: Showers, may thunder. High 64. Low 49. Days 6-10: +10.0. 60% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.0. 80% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 61. Low 40. Jacksonville, FL… TUE: Mostly sunny. High 77. Low 60. WED: Showers, thunderstorms. High 80. Low 51. THU: Partly cloudy. High 66. Low 55. FRI: Mostly cloudy. High 72. Low 57. SAT: Partly cloudy. High 77. Low 58. Days 6-10: +6.0. 10% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +0.5. 80% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 70. Low 49. Calgary… TUE: Partly cloudy; cold. High 8. Low -8. WED: Snow developing. High 4. Low -8. THU: Partly cloudy. High 3. Low -8. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 8. Low -4. SAT: Partly cloudy. High 18. Low 2. Days 6-10: -18.0. 110% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -12.0. 140% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 35. Low 14.
11/28/2022, 1:16 pm EST

U.S. Energy Market Midday Update

Highlight: The Tuesday tornado outbreak. Fig. 1: NOAA/SPC severe weather outlook for Tuesday highlighting tornado risk area. Discussion: NOAA/SPC has issued a tornado risk area for northeast Louisiana to southwest Tennessee due to passage of a strong cold front late tomorrow (Fig. 1). The HRRR model indicates peak strength is across northwest/north Mississippi during mid-evening tomorrow (Fig. 2) adding to the dangerous nature of this event – occurring at night! A robust squall line extends from New Orleans to southwest Virginia at 7AM EST Wednesday (Fig. 3). NOAA/SPC indicates the severity of this squall line will ease shifting toward the coast daytime Wednesday. Fig. 2: HRRR radar forecast indicates max intensity for tomorrow is mid-evening in Mississippi. Fig. 3: HRRR model indicates a squall line from southeast Louisiana to southwest Virginia at daybreak Wednesday. The squall line weakens shifting eastward. At midday, the 12Z GFS indicates colder than normal (HDD) forecasts for next week and the following week (Table 1). The trend is colder since last Friday. The Dec. 9-15 forecast is highly changeable and 33.6 HDD colder with the midday update. The 12Z GFS cold outlook into the East is uncertain.   Dates HDD Forecast 12-Hr Change 24 Hours Ago 10-Year NML 30-Year NML Nov. 25-Dec. 1   147.2 +0.4 146.7 154.0 159.5 Dec. 2-8     177.9 +12.2 177.8 163.3 173.6 Dec. 9-15     209.2 +33.6 214.3 173.1 185.5 Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.  
11/28/2022, 1:12 pm EST

Weekly ENSO Diagnostics: La Nina’s 3rd peak of the 2020-22 cold ENSO episode has occurred.

Discussion: The southern oscillation index (SOI) became choppy in November certainly related to an active transient Madden Julian oscillation (MJO). The presence of MJO implies La Nina may be breaking down. The Nino34 SSTA has warmed slightly the past couple weeks (Fig. 1) and given a projected SOI of +0.45 for November (Fig. 2) diagnostics support slight weakening of La Nina. The projected late 2022 La Nina 3rd peak of the 2020-22 cold ENSO event has likely just-occurred. The monthly SOI dip is the lowest since January of last year. Using SOI to project a constructed analog yields deceleration of La Nina ahead with neutral ENSO by FEB/MAR/APR 2022 followed by a choppy El Nino-like signature later next year through 2024 (Fig. 3). Fig. 1: The 12-week Nino SSTA observations. Fig. 2: Monthly southern oscillation index values adding the projected November 2022 estimate. Fig. 3: Using southern oscillation index, a constructed ENSO phase analog projection through 2024 is indicated.    
11/28/2022, 9:50 am EST

U.S. 16-20-Day Extended-range Forecast: Turning colder East.

Highlight: Turning colder East (3 days ago below).  Extended-range discussion: Ensembles are trending cooler in the East and warmer across the West-Central U.S. including Canada. The West Coast stays in the face of a (weak) storm track and the Tennessee Valley is wetter than normal.