09/29/2023, 1:33 pm EDT

U.S. Energy Market Midday Update

Highlight: West-central U.S. is cooler/Northeast is warmer while East U.S. wetter via the 12Z GFS. Fig. 1-2: 12Z GFS medium range temperature anomaly forecast.    Discussion: The midday 12Z GFS is cooler in the Central U.S. while the Northeast is somewhat warmer in the 6-10-day period (Fig. 1). The West Coast is quite warm. In the 11-15-day period, the previously indicated very warm outlook is less warm throughout the West-central States (Fig. 2). The Northeast cool forecast from yesterday is moderated to near normal. The 12Z GFS is much wetter in the Gulf region and throughout much of the East U.S. (Fig. 3-4). In the tropics, Tropical Storms Philippe and Rina turn northward and may each stall in the central North Atlantic later next week (Fig. 5). Fig. 3-4: The 12Z GFS percent of normal rainfall forecast and 24-hour change. Fig. 5: North Atlantic basin satellite view and primary tropical features. Dates HDD Forecast 12-Hr Change 24-Hr Change 30-Year NML 10-Year NML Sep. 29- Oct. 5   12.8 -0.6 +1.5 35.0 28.4 Oct. 6-12     44.2 -3.4 -5.0 47.9 39.3 Oct. 13-19     44.1 -10.9 -7.0 62.5 52.5 Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago. Dates CDD Forecast 12-Hr Change 24-Hr Change 30-Year NML 10-Year NML Sep. 29- Oct. 5   43.9 +2.1 +0.6 25.3 30.7 Oct. 6-12     24.6 -1.4 -1.5 19.3 23.8 Oct. 13-19   19.2 +0.6 +1.2 14.6 18.0 Table 2: The 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.      
09/29/2023, 9:19 am EDT

North Atlantic Basin 10-Day Tropical Monitor

Highlight: Upper shear keeps western North Atlantic basin free of TC activity. Fig. 1: North Atlantic basin satellite view and prominent tropical features. Discussion: Tropical Storms Philippe and Rina drift west and north over the next 5 days with Philippe strengthening slightly and Rina weakening slightly. Both systems stay well out to sea and eventually drift northward and meander while weakening. Elsewhere tropical cyclone activity is not expected in the next 10 days.
09/29/2023, 8:45 am EDT

U.S. Energy Market Early Notes: Low water levels on the Mississippi are worsening.

Fig. 1-2: ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across the U.S. and the CFS V2 rainfall anomaly outlook for October. Discussion: 400 river level gauges are below “low water” on the Mississippi River due to the 2023 drought in parts of the Central U.S. The condition which is threatening the water supply for October harvest and barge travel along the Mississippi is worsening. The latest 15-day outlook by ECM ENS indicates mostly dry weather continuing in the Mississippi Valley (Fig. 1). The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) precipitation outlook for October is developing wet weather across the Southeast to Mid-south U.S. However, CFS V2 indicates the wet weather risk may shift west to Texas (and vicinity) leaving the Southeast and East-central U.S. mostly dry (Fig. 2). Consequently, the difficult conditions on the Mississippi are likely to continue through mid-autumn. In November, the CFS V2 has wet risk for parts of the Mississippi River while CIC-CA is drier again therefore expectations of drought ending rainfall in November is below average. The winter outlook confidently forecasts above normal precipitation for the southern Mississippi River Valley, but the central basin may stay dry. The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast is similar to yesterday and indicates essentially no national heating demand in early October followed a surge to near normal demand for the following 2 weeks (Fig. 3). Fig. 3: U.S. population weight HDD forecast based on all models, their consensus, and comparing with 24 hours ago and the 30-year/10-year normal.  
09/29/2023, 8:41 am EDT

U.S. Medium-range: Cooler East/Warmer West

Charts of the day: Lingering hot risk followed by gaining cold risk. Discussion: Hot weather risk (>90F) is widespread through the next 5 days reaching as far north as Omaha, NE. In the 6-10-day forecast the hot weather risk retreats southward and expands to Coastal California. The risk of <32F extends southward out of Canada into the Interior West in the 6-10-day period and surges toward New England in the 11-15-day period. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid October 4-8, 2023 Discussion: The GFS and ECM are combined to produce the 6-10-day forecast. The Northeast is very warm and the West Coast trends much warmer with hot weather in Southern California to the coast. Wet weather cools Texas/southwest Great Plains. Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid October 9-13, 2023 Discussion: The East trend is cooler lead by the GFS forecast. As impressive is the warming trend across the Western U.S. which expands into the North-central States. U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast Discussion: Wet weather across Mexico and Texas helps to ease a long-term drought in the 6-10-day period. Dryness dominates the warming West. In the 11-15-day forecast widespread dryness is indicated. Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid October 14-18, 2023      Discussion: ECM trend is cool in the Mid-south/East while GFS is MUCH warmer. The Southwest U.S. is wet and Midwest/Southeast U.S. dry for mid-October.