Energy Client Base Product Archives - Climate Impact Company

06/16/2025, 3:23 pm EDT

U.S. Year-2 Ahead Climate Forecast: Neutral ENSO, use Optimum Climate Normal

Climate Impact Company Year-2 Outlook North America Issued: Monday, June 16, 2024 Highlight: Seasonal optimum climate normal. Knowing the ocean warming inspired climate bias. Executive Summary: Any climate forecast should begin with an optimum climate normal (OCN). Climate Impact Company uses a 10-year OCN and recently a 5-year OCN for the Europe/Western Russia climate forecast. OCN is used to recognize the influence on climate by the warming oceans which have accelerated during the past decade (Fig. 1). Other factors supporting the use of OCN’s are the constricting polar ice cap, and evolution of warm holes in the general warming of the mid-latitude ocean surface, most notably in the North Atlantic south of Greenland. Of course, the OCN climate bias can be altered sharply depending on whether a strong ENSO event is in place or regional warming (cooling) of mid-latitude oceans is present. Provided are the 10-year OCN climate bias for meteorological spring, summer, autumn, and winter for the U.S. placed in the 2-year ahead climate outlook section on your client web page. ENSO is neutral and the outlook for 2026 and into 2027 is uncertain. Consequently, as a first guess of what to expect in the year and 2-year ahead climate patterns, the OCN is useful for preliminary planning purposes. Fig. 1: The global ocean surface is warming with an accelerated rate during the past decade. MAR/APR/MAY: The 10-year U.S. climate bias due to warming of the mid-latitude oceans is a warmer climate pattern especially in the East/Southeast U.S. The influence of North Atlantic warming on U.S. climate during the past 10 years is stronger than the Pacific influence. Susceptibility to chilly weather is confined to the northwest Great Plains and Northern Rocky Mountains. The precipitation bias includes a dry Northwest and wet Mid-south U.S. dipole. The MAM-25 climate was warmer (nationally) and wetter (eastern half of U.S.) than OCN. Fig. 2-3: The 10-year optimum climate normal temperature and precipitation anomalies for MAR/APR/MAY. JUN/JUL/AUG: Meteorological summer OCN favors anomalous heat West and Southwest U.S. plus the Gulf States and Northeast U.S. Corridor. The least hot bias is in the vicinity of the Missouri Valley. Many climate forecasts contain a similar theme for the summer 2025 forecast. The precipitation tendency is wetter than normal inspired in-part by busy tropical cyclone seasons across the eastern 40% of the U.S. while the western half of the U.S. is dry. A common agricultural commodities trading issue is handling the wet to dry soil conditions the attendant climate pattern generates through the heart of the U.S. AG Belt. Fig. 4-5: The 10-year optimum climate normal temperature and precipitation anomalies for JUN/JUL/AUG. SEP/OCT/NOV: Meteorological autumn has a tendency for anomalous warmth across the entire U.S. with warmest anomalies in the central Great Plains. The precipitation bias reverses much drier in the Mid-south and Northeast U.S. Fig. 6-7: The 10-year optimum climate normal temperature and precipitation anomalies for SEP/OCT/NOV. DEC/JAN/FEB: The 10-year OCN has a strong warm bias on the East U.S. including a wet signature centered on the Tennessee Valley. The OCN appears to be an enhanced La Nina climate bias. Cold risk is across the Northern Rockies and vicinity. Fig. 8-9: The 10-year optimum climate normal temperature and precipitation anomalies for DEC/JAN/FEB.

10/18/2020, 7:17 pm EDT

Southern Company Summer 2020 Verification Report

Highlight: Warmer/wetter than normal summer for Southern Company. Fig. 1: Meteorological summer 2020 state temperature ranks. Fig. 2: Meteorological summer 2020 state precipitation ranks. Discussion: Meteorological summer was warmer than normal across Southern Company (Fig. 1). Alabama rainfall was wetter than normal while Georgia rainfall was close to normal (Fig. 2). After an unusually cool May the summertime temperatures turned hotter than normal peaking during July and easing only slightly in August. Unlike the last two hot years September was temperate (Fig. 3). During the 2020 warm season Mobile was slightly cooler than normal each month while Atlanta and Macon produced the hottest anomalies in July and August. The system average precipitation was close to normal in May and June although the near normal values were the result of wet (Mobile) and dry (Macon) extremes (Fig. 4). West/north Alabama was wet in July while Mobile observed very little rainfall. The System Average in August was wetter than normal. Macon was excessive wet in September while Birmingham very dry – a System Average slightly wetter than normal. During the 2020 warm season the monthly CDD totals in Alabama were close to normal and not as hot as the last two years (Fig. 5). Georgia was near normal and similar to last year in June (Fig. 6). July was the hottest of the past four years for both states. August CDD count was as hot as last year. September cooled to near normal unlike the last two years. The verification of the Southern Company System temperature and precipitation forecast issued last spring produced mixed results. The temperature verification was reasonable for the meteorological summer months but too warm for the unusually cool May and (also) too warm for the temperate September (Fig. 7). The precipitation verification was reasonable for May and June but out-of-phase for July through September (Fig. 8). Fig. 3: Southern Company System temperature summer 2020 verification. Fig. 4: Southern Company System precipitation summer 2020 verification. Fig. 5: Alabama population weight CDD for warm season 2020 versus last 3 years. Fig. 6: Georgia population weight CDD for warm season 2020 versus last 3 years. Fig. 7: Southern Company spring 2020 forecast for monthly system temperature anomalies versus verification. Fig. 8: Southern Company spring 2020 forecast for monthly system precipitation percent of normal versus verification.

10/18/2020, 7:10 pm EDT

Southern Company System NOV-20 to MAR-21 Winter Forecast

10/15/2020, 3:12 pm EDT

Southern Company November 2020 to March 2021 Outlook

Cold risk for January Otherwise Milder/Drier Than Normal Executive summary: A La Nina winter climate is forecast across the Southeast U.S. for winter 2020-21. Historically, a La Nina winter is warmer and drier than normal in the Southeast U.S. However, due to regional climate conditions unique to the past decade, the Southeast U.S. has risk of at least some cold weather this winter season most likely in January which is forecast colder than normal for Southern Company. The unique climate conditions favor above normal North America winter snow cover which enables cold air masses to travel south to the Gulf region. In February, snow cover retreats toward Canada and the Southeast States end meteorological winter with very warm temperatures. The outlook indicates dryness for the winter season. Southern Company should plan on potential drought conditions by early next spring increasing the risk of following summer anomalous heat. Fig. 1-2: The Southern Company temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecast for the 2020-21 cold season. Climate discussion: ENSO expert Australia Bureau of Meteorology confidently forecasts a strong La Nina for winter 2020-21 (Fig. 3). Typically, a Southeast U.S. winter climate pattern during La Nina is mild and dry (Fig. 4-5). A drought condition for the next spring across the Southeast U.S. is likely to emerge. Fig. 3: The Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO forecast reveals an intense La Nina ahead peaking in December. Fig. 4-5: Historically, the DEC/JAN/FEB La Nina climatology favors anomalous warmth and (mostly) dry climate across the Southeast U.S. Other leading factors include a projected very warm northeast Pacific Ocean surface (Fig. 6). The area of warmth is semi-permanent and referred to as the “warm blob”. This feature has dominated the northeast Pacific Ocean since 2013-14 and is well-correlated with presence of an upper ridge pattern across or just west of the North America West Coast during wintertime and compensated for by a downstream upper trough (i.e. polar vortex). We’re not expecting a “polar vortex” winter similar to 2013-14 or 2014-15. However, the pattern is likely present during mid-winter and causes extensive snow cover to enable cold outbreaks which can infiltrate the Southeast States. Therefore the January forecast is colder than normal across the Southeast U.S. If the expanding snow cover fails, the regime is much warmer across the Southeast. Fig. 6: The ECMWF global SSTA forecast for January 2021 indicates the northeast Pacific Ocean “warm blob” and the correlating upper air pattern/risk to Southern Company. The Southern Company winter 2020-21 forecast: The outlook is based on a constructed analog which considers La Nina, the warm SSTA in the northeast Pacific and western North Atlantic basin(s). In November, there is cold risk to the Northeast U.S. due to above normal snow cover across Ontario and Quebec. A few chilly days are likely across Southern Company but mostly the chilly air stays to the north and the prevailing climate is warmer and much drier than normal (Fig. 7-8). The December outlook is quite mild across Georgia but not quite as anomalous warm in Alabama. Early meteorological winter is mostly drier than normal. The January outlook is marginally colder than normal. Above normal number of mornings <32F is likely for January (Fig. 9). Keep in mind the cold January outlook is based on a mid-winter southern advance of snow cover across the Ohio Valley possibly touching the Ohio Valley. In February, the snow cover retreats and the Southeast U.S. is very warm to end meteorological winter. The month of March is mostly very dry with near normal system temperature. Fig. 7: The Southern Company SYSTEM temperature anomaly forecast for NOV-20 to MAR-21. Fig. 8: The Southern Company SYSTEM precipitation anomaly forecast for NOV-20 to MAR-21. Fig. 9: The Southern Company number of days <32F forecast for meteorological winter 2020-21 compared to last year for Southern Company locations. The Southern Company winter 2020-21 forecast summary: Expect a warmer than normal winter season ahead EXCEPT for mid-winter when January is marginally colder than normal. The month of February is likely to reverse very warm. The winter outlook is drier than normal and a drought pattern may emerge by early next spring. Fig. 10: The Alabama gas population weight HDD forecast for NOV-20 to MAR-21 compared to the last 3 years. Fig. 11: The Georgia gas population weight HDD forecast for NOV-20 to MAR-21 compared to the last 3 years. Addendum: The Climate Impact Company Monthly Climate Forecasts for Winter. November 2020: The projected upper air pattern pushes the “warm blob” inspired northeast Pacific upper ridge westward to the Aleutian Islands with a downstream upper trough just-off the southwest B.C. coast. East of the trough an amplified upper ridge is dominant and brings a very warm month of November to the Southwest and Interior West U.S. to the western Great Plains and Texas. In the East an un upper trough persists off the coast leaving the Mid-south, Southeast and Northeast Corridor drier-than-normal. A cold polar vortex develops over northern Canada where snow cover is above normal. In that cold air source region, there are occasional cold air masses released into the Northeast U.S. Fig. 12-13: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog November 2020 temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook December 2020: The building advections snow into northern and central Canada during November spread to Quebec and parts of New England and certainly the Great Lakes region in December. Some of the chilly Canadian air backs into the Northwest at times. Due to snow cover the Interior Northwest, Upper Midwest and Northeast U.S. are colder than normal to start meteorological winter. The “warm blob” inspired northeast Pacific ridge is just off the West Coast of North America blocking the Pacific storm track and leaving California dry. The Southwest and Florida are very warm in December. Fig. 14-15: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog December 2020 temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook January 2021: Interestingly, the “warm blob” inspired northeast Pacific ridge shifts west again – to the western Aleutian Islands while an upper trough anchors off the B.C. coast. The upper ridge over the Southwest U.S. remains. A weak upper ridge affects the Northeast States during mid-winter. The result is periods of marginally wet weather on the West Coast while most of the West stays very warm. A coolish pattern evolves over the Southeast likely caused by cold outbreaks from Canada which modify south of snow cover. New England is snowy (away from the coast) during January. Mid-south U.S. dryness persists. Fig. 16-17: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog January 2021 temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook February 2021: In February a “polar vortex” regime establishes over central to northeast Canada. The related cold – which features widespread artic air will back into Western Canada to the northern U.S. Rockies. The February chill is expansive across a widespread deep snow cover. However, as impressive as the Canadian polar vortex regime is projected a just as impressive typical of La Nina Southeast U.S. ridge pattern also develops. The result is very warm temperatures over the Southeast and the cold/warm air mass clash leads to major precipitation events in the Mid-south U.S. extending northeastward. Anytime arctic air clashes with warm air masses freezing rain and icing occurs and that weather risk is significant in February for the Ohio Valley to New England. In the West, dryness returns to California as the Pacific storm track is blocked. Fig. 18-19: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog February 2021 temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook March 2021: The March outlook is least confident for the 2020-21 cold season. Projected is an upper trough off the Northeast U.S. Coast which causes a chilly regime in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States. The Southwest U.S. ridge continues and an extremely warm month of March is expected for Texas and vicinity. The Ohio Valley is stormy (again). The “warm” blob inspired northeast Pacific ridge pattern is across and south of the Aleutian Islands. A downstream upper trough brings wet weather to California. Fig. 20-21: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog March 2021 temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook.