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10/16/2018, 2:41 pm EDT

BGE Daily Almanac Report

10/16/2018, 1:57 pm EDT

Daily feature: Record Strength +NAO

A super cold/warm clash of air masses likely to drive extremes for winter 2018-19 Discussion: One does not normally associate historic summer heat and drought with the polar vortex but 2018 is different (Fig. 1). Throughout 2018 the polar vortex has been stronger than normal but at a far northern latitude and biased toward the northern North Atlantic. The result is the strongest and most consistent positive phase of the arctic oscillation and particularly the North Atlantic oscillation on record for 2018 (Fig. 2). The most recent weather extreme caused by this phenomena is the well above normal snow cover (Fig. 3) across Canada (and into the U.S.) and the evolving attendant cold already freezing the Great Plains so far in October and about to shift into the East U.S. for the last third of the month. Couple the deepening early season Canadian snow cover and the associated cold air masses with emerging warm influence on climate by a building powerful El Nino (Fig. 4) and we’re looking a winter ahead likely to bring DRAMATIC thermal changes and intense storms as extreme cold/warm air masses clash. Fig. 1: The most persistent and strong polar vortex on record in 2018. Fig. 2: Except for March the AO and especially NAO has been in the positive phase indicating presence of a strong polar vortex. No year in the 1950-2018 climatology has produced such a consistent positive phase. Fig. 3: The +NAO pattern has caused above normal snow cover across Canada is October causing widening North American chill. Fig. 4: The subsurface equatorial Pacific is immensely warmer than normal offering plenty of fuel for El Nino ahead.
10/16/2018, 1:52 pm EDT

Midday Energy Market Update

Highlight: Oct. 26-Nov. 1 forecast less chilly using 12Z GFS. Midday model change… Days 6-10: Cooler Midwest. Much drier Texas/Southeast. Days 11-15: Warmer West and Northeast/Quebec. Wetter Northeast. Dates HDD forecast 12-hr change 24 hours ago NOAA Nml Oct 12-18 89.7 +0.2 89.9 71 Oct 19-25 91.0 +8.8 90.6 85 Oct 26-Nov 1 82.6 -13.4 84.2 101  Table 1: CWG tabulates the 12Z GFS OP gas population weight HDD forecast. High impact… Wet pattern, flooding to continue in Texas. Another cold outbreak Thursday Midwest to Northeast Thursday. Tropics… Watching Bay of Campeche and Gulf of Mexico for trouble brewing into the 6-10 day period.   Current gas population weight HDD forecasts for NOV-18 to APR-19.   Current forecast is colder than the 10-year normal but not as cold as the 30-year normal. Fig. 1: Current Climate Impact Company cold season 2018-19 monthly gas population weight HDD forecast compared to the last 3 years and the 10-year normal. Fig. 2: Current Climate Impact Company cold season 2018-19 monthly gas population weight HDD forecast compared to the last 3 years and the 30-year normal.  
10/16/2018, 9:57 am EDT

10-Day Tropical Monitor

94L moves inland, no longer a North Atlantic basin issue Discussion: Tropical Disturbance 94L has moved inland and is no longer a North Atlantic basin issue. A tropical wave in the central tropical North Atlantic is unlikely to develop. There remains concern in the Gulf of Mexico in the 6-10 day period for a possible subtropical storm. Fig. 1: North Atlantic basin satellite view and tropical features.