News
02/27/2024, 12:46 pm EST

U.S. Energy Market Midday Update

Highlight: -AO/-NAO cause colder trend East Canada in 11-15-day period. Fig. 1-2: The 12Z GFS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast. Discussion: The 6-10-day forecast according to the 12Z GFS is warmer to an already warm forecast in the East while Western Canada and the Northwest U.S. is cold and trends colder (Fig. 1). California trend is wetter. In the 11-15-day period, as mentioned yesterday, both the arctic oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) shift into the negative phase which should defeat the warm pattern across eastern North America. The -AO/-NAO trend causes a much colder change across Eastern Canada in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 2). EIA End Forecast 12-Hour Change 24-Hour Change 30-Year Normal 10-Year Normal 2/29 136.1 -1.0 -0.1 175.8 174.6 3/7 112.4 -14.8 -16.8 163.6 160.3 3/14 118.9 +4.8 -11.1 150.8 145.6 Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.
02/27/2024, 12:44 pm EST

BGE Special Update for Squall Line on Wednesday Feb. 28

BGE 1PM update for high wind event Feb. 27-29…Squall line timing is quicker tomorrow. Today… Cloudy with rain developing by 3PM. Periods of showers through 2-3AM Wednesday. Rainfall amount: 0.25 to 0.50 in. Wind south 7-15 mph with a few gusts as high as 30-35 mph overnight. No alerts through tonight. High 64. Low 55. Wednesday… Next batch of rain arrives 6-7AM. Periods of rain all day. Squall line arrives earlier than previously forecast, in the 3-5PM timeframe. Rainfall amount increases to 0.75 to 1.25 in.  Showers end by 8-9AM. Mostly cloudy overnight. Wind southwest 8-18 mph with gusts 30-40 mph daytime. Wind shifts to west-northwest 22-32 mph with gusts 50-55 mph 5-6PM lasting to 11PM. Wind eases to 12-22 mph with gusts to 34-43 mph overnight. ALERT 1 for >1.00 in. of rain is initiated at 9AM. ALERT 1 for wind gusts to 40 mph is indicated all day through 5PM. Borderline ALERT 3 for wind is initiated at 5PM and lasts through 11PM. ALERT 1 for wind remains from midnight to dawn Thursday. High 62. Low 30. Thursday… Becoming mostly sunny. Wind west-northwest 16-24 mph with gusts 35-40 mph through 3PM diminishing late afternoon. Borderline ALERT 1 for wind 7AM to 3PM. High 45. Low 32.
02/27/2024, 7:04 am EST

U.S. Medium-range Forecast: Cold West/warm East forecast intact.

Chart of the day: Plethora of weather watch, warning, and advisory areas. Discussion: A complex storm system spawns high wind and snow across the West to North-central U.S., high wind including a Red Flag Warning in the Great Plains, and severe storms for the Ohio Valley (tomorrow). The high wind alerts spread into the East tomorrow. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid March 3-7, 2024 (24-hour change right) Discussion: Record warmth is likely in the East as vigorous warm 6-10-day forecasts continue. The chilly Northwest U.S. forecast trend is colder. The Southwest States trend warmer. Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid March 8-12, 2024 (24 hour change right) Discussion: Broadly, the 11-15-day forecast is slightly cooler. The sensible forecast is cold Interior West while eastern warmth loses intensity. U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast Discussion: Heavy rain and (mostly) snow stretch across Ontario while heavy rains affect the Southeast States in the 6-10-day period. The 11-15-day forecast is stormy on the East Coast. Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid March 13-17, 2024 (previous below) Discussion: The extended-range forecast is too warm. The 11-15-day outlook initiates a less warm trend which should continue in the 16-20-day forecast.
02/27/2024, 7:00 am EST

Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley 5-Day Weather Alert

Highlight: Squall line into the East tomorrow. Richmond, VA… TUE: Showers, breezy. High 67. Low 57. WED: Variable cloudiness, windy. Showers developing. High 72. Low 32. THU: Sunny. High 51. Low 29. FRI: Increasing clouds, Rain at night. High 53. Low 43. SAT: Variable cloudiness. High 63. Low 50. Days 6-10: +11.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +8.5. 110% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 54. Low 33. Charleston, WV… TUE: Showers, breezy. High 67. Low 59. WED: Rainy, windy. Strong thunderstorms possible. High 66. Low 26. THU: Sunny. High 45. Low 30. FRI: Chance of rain. High 51. Low 42. SAT: Partly cloudy. High 65. Low 45. Days 6-10: +11.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +8.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 51. Low 31. Baltimore, MD… TUE: Showers, breezy. High 65. Low 55. WED: Showers, windy. High 69. Low 29. THU: Sunny, breezy. High 45. Low 30. FRI: Cloudy. High 51. Low 40. SAT: Variable cloudiness, chance of rain. High 56. Low 47. Days 6-10: +11.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +9.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 49. Low 29. Philadelphia, PA… TUE: Showers late day, becoming breezy. High 63. Low 55. WED: Showers, windy. High 63. Low 29. THU: Sunny, breezy. High 41. Low 28. FRI: Mostly cloudy. High 49. Low 41. SAT: Showers ending. High 56. Low 47. Days 6-10: +11.5. 110% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +10.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 47. Low 30. New York City… TUE: Increasing clouds. Showers/breezy at night. High 58. Low 53. WED: Showers, windy. High 61. Low 31. THU: Sunny, breezy. High 41. Low 31. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 48. Low 42. SAT: Rain. High 53. Low 45. Days 6-10: +12.0. 110% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +10.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 45. Low 32. Albany, NY…High Wind Watch. TUE: Increasing clouds. Showers/breezy at night. High 63. Low 51. WED: Showers, windy. Rain ends as snow. High 63. Low 23. THU: Sunny, breezy. High 31. Low 21. FRI: Sunny. High 47. Low 33. SAT: Showers. High 50. Low 40. Days 6-10: +12.0. 110% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +11.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 39. Low 21. Hartford, CT… TUE: Increasing clouds. Showers/breezy at night. High 57. Low 48. WED: Showers, windy. High 58. Low 24. THU: Sunny, breezy. High 35. Low 24. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 47. Low 35. SAT: Rain. High 51. Low 41. Days 6-10: +12.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +11.0. 90% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 41. Low 23. Boston, MA…Wind Advisory. TUE: Increasing clouds. Showers/breezy at night. High 58. Low 50. WED: Showers, windy. High 59. Low 26. THU: Sunny, breezy. High 36. Low 24. FRI: Sunny. High 48. Low 36. SAT: Rain. High 52. Low 42. Days 6-10: +12.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +12.0. 110% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 41. Low 27. Binghamton, NY… TUE: Increasing clouds. Showers/breezy at night. High 59. Low 49. WED: Showers, windy. Snow at night. High 61. Low 19. THU: Early snow then clearing, breezy. High 30. Low 21. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 46. Low 32. SAT: Chance of showers. High 48. Low 38. Days 6-10: +12.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +12.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 35. Low 19. Williamsport, PA… TUE: Showers developing by late day, becoming windy. High 57. Low 50. WED: Showers, windy. Snow at night. High 61. Low 23. THU: Sunny. High 38. Low 25. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 47. Low 35. SAT: Variable cloudiness. High 52. Low 42. Days 6-10: +12.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +11.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 42. Low 24. Pittsburgh, PA… TUE: Showers, windy. High 62. Low 53. WED: Showers, windy. Snow at night. High 61. Low 23. THU: Sunny. High 38. Low 26. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 50. Low 39. SAT: Partly cloudy. High 56. Low 42. Days 6-10: +12.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +9.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 43. Low 26. Cleveland, OH… TUE: Showers, windy. Severe thunderstorms are possible. High 67. Low 57. WED: Rain, windy. Snow at night. High 63. Low 25. THU: Early snow then sunny. High 35. Low 28. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 49. Low 39. SAT: Partly cloudy. High 55. Low 43. Days 6-10: +12.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +8.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 41. Low 26. Toledo, OH… TUE: Showers, windy. Severe thunderstorms are possible. High 71. Low 47. WED: Showers end as snow, windy. High 56. Low 24. THU: Sunny. High 37. Low 27. FRI: Mostly sunny. High 45. Low 37. SAT: Partly cloudy. High 55. Low 43. Days 6-10: +12.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +8.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 41. Low 25. Columbus, OH… TUE: Showers, windy. Severe thunderstorms are possible. High 69. Low 61. WED: Showers end as snow, windy. High 62. Low 24. THU: Sunny. High 40. Low 27. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 48. Low 40. SAT: Partly cloudy. High 60. Low 43. Days 6-10: +11.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +8.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 44. Low 27. Covington, KY… TUE: Showers, windy. Severe thunderstorms are possible. High 70. Low 55. WED: Showers, windy. High 57. Low 24. THU: Sunny. High 44. Low 29. FRI: Variable cloudiness. High 48. Low 40. SAT: Partly cloudy. High 62. Low 45. Days 6-10: +10.5. 130% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +8.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 47. Low 29. Columbia, SC… TUE: Chance of showers. High 74. Low 60. WED: Variable cloudiness, breezy. Showers at night. High 80. Low 40. THU: Partly cloudy. Light rain at night. High 56. Low 40. FRI: Showers. High 54. Low 49. SAT: Chance of showers. High 67. Low 53. Days 6-10: +8.0. 130% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +6.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 64. Low 39. Charleston, SC… TUE: Partly cloudy. High 70. Low 60. WED: Variable cloudiness, breezy. Showers at night. High 75. Low 48. THU: Mostly cloudy. Rain at night. High 60. Low 46. FRI: Showers. High 68. Low 56. SAT: Chance of showers. High 70. Low 56. Days 6-10: +7.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +8.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 66. Low 44. Houston, TX… TUE: Mostly sunny. High 83. Low 64. WED: Showers, breezy. High 65. Low 50. THU: Rain.  High 60. Low 54. FRI: Variable cloudiness. High 74. Low 59. SAT: Becoming partly cloudy. High 82. Low 64. Days 6-10: +5.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 70. Low 50. Birmingham, AL…Wind Advisory. TUE: Partly cloudy, breezy. High 79. Low 63. WED: Showers, breezy. High 70. Low 35. THU: Mostly cloudy. Rain at night. High 55. Low 44. FRI: Showers likely. High 57. Low 51. SAT: Chance of showers. High 65. Low 56. Days 6-10: +8.0. 130% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +4.5. 130% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 62. Low 41. Jacksonville, FL… TUE: Mostly sunny. High 80. Low 56. WED: Mostly sunny. High 83. Low 57. THU: Chance of showers. High 63. Low 55. FRI: Showers likely. High 76. Low 60. SAT: Chance of showers. High 75. Low 60. Days 6-10: +8.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +5.5. 130% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 71. Low 48. Calgary… TUE: Mostly sunny. High 12. Low 0. WED: Partly cloudy, not as cold. High 43. Low 7. THU: Mostly cloudy. High 37. Low 1. FRI: Chance of light snow. High 18. Low -4. SAT: Partly cloudy. High 12. Low -6. Days 6-10: -0.5. 110% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.0. 80% of normal precipitation. Normal: High 33. Low 11.