News
04/19/2024, 2:02 pm EDT

Europe/Western Russia Month 1-4 Ahead Outlook: Drought risk areas are North Africa/Southern Europe and possible France plus the Russia spring wheat areas.

Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-4 ahead climate forecast for Europe and Western Russia valid for April through July 2024 is updated. Cool and wet upper troughs dominate Central/East Europe to Western Russia in April and May reversing to a hot and dry ridge during the summer months. After a wet cold season, Western Europe will try to trend drier. Northwest Africa dryness persists and extends to Southern Europe. Russia spring wheat zone is warmer and drier than normal once we’re into the summer weather. Climate discussion: A pattern change favoring evolution of negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO) later in March is forecast to carry through April helping to keep Central and East Europe chilly and stormy. The upper trough backs into Central Europe during May causing the cool and wet pattern to expand. The early meteorological spring wet soil conditions from U.K. to Kazakhstan foreshadow more cool/wet weather through the remainder of spring for much of this region. A major pattern change is forecast for June as an amplified ridge evolves over Europe causing widespread anomalous heat and dryness. The ridge broadens over Southern Europe during July. April 2024: Upper ridge across Northern Africa continues to accelerate Northwest Africa drought. Negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO) is dominant causing a chilly and stormy trough to form over Eastern Europe/Western Russia. Ukraine is wetter than normal during April. Wet weather extends to the Russia spring wheat region. The -NAO upper ridge over Greenland extends to Western Europe causing the late winter storm track to disappear. Fig. 1-2: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of temperature and precipitation anomalies across Europe/Western Russia during April 2024.  May 2024: During late spring, the upper trough backs into Central Europe. An amplified upper ridge appears in East-central Russia. The sensible weather forecast reveals a cool pattern across Central Europe including buoyant precipitation totals extending from Italy northeastward across Ukraine and Southwest Russia. Russia’s spring wheat region turns drier and warmer than normal. The West Coast of Europe stays drier than normal for a second consecutive month. Spain is very dry and potentially hot with another scorching hot month in northwest Africa. Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of temperature and precipitation anomalies across Europe/Western Russia during May 2024.  June 2024: High pressure builds over Europe causing a much warmer than normal pattern change, from the spring season. The early season heat stretches from Central Europe to Ukraine while North Africa heat continues and helps to enhance the Europe early summer heat. Dryness is biased toward the northern half of Europe. The wet zone is across Southeast Europe and Turkey where susceptibility to upper-level low-pressure is likely. Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of temperature and precipitation anomalies across Europe/Western Russia during June 2024. July 2024: The upper ridge shifts to Southern Europe during mid-summer. Northern Europe pattern shifts to a strong upper trough. The result is anomalous hot weather across Southern Europe and Northern Africa while the Baltic States (and vicinity) shift to near normal. Wet weather is likely near and east of the Baltic States. Beneath the heat dome, dryness dominates France to Central Europe. Fig. 7-8: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of temperature and precipitation anomalies across Europe/Western Russia during July 2024.