Highlight: A quiet week. Big Spring, TX… MON: Sunny. Wind south 5-15 mph. High 63. Low 43. TUE: Sunny. Wind southeast 3-10 mph. High 59. Low 42. WED: Sunny. Wind southwest 7-16 mph. High 64. Low 50. THU: Sunny. Wind southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph. High 70. Low 50. FRI: Mostly sunny. Wind southwest 5-15 mph. High 72. Low 40. Days 6-10: -0.5. 110% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.5. 110% of normal precipitation. Tyler, TX… MON: Sunny. High 64. Low 43. TUE: Sunny. High 66. Low 40. WED: Sunny. High 64. Low 45. THU: Mostly sunny. High 67. Low 56. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 72. Low 47. Days 6-10: 0.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.0. 110% of normal precipitation. El Dorado, AR… MON: Sunny. High 59. Low 37. TUE: Sunny. High 62. Low 33. WED: Sunny. High 60. Low 36. THU: Sunny. High 62. Low 46. FRI: Increasing clouds, chance of showers at night. High 66. Low 43. Days 6-10: +2.0. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.5. 110% of normal precipitation. Krotz Springs, LA… MON: Sunny. High 68. Low 44. TUE: Sunny. High 66. Low 40. WED: Sunny. High 62. Low 41. THU: Sunny. High 63. Low 48. FRI: Partly cloudy. High 72. Low 50. Days 6-10: +1.5. 120% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +0.5. 110% of normal precipitation.    

Highlight: Cold weather/wintery precipitation risk JAN/FEB. Executive summary: The Delek Energy 2023-24 cold season outlook presents a borderline mild start to the season, cold mid-to-late meteorological winter, and temperate March. An El Nino winter is ahead. Weather across Texas varies widely during El Nino winter favoring above normal cloudy days, above normal precipitation, cold risk with snow biased toward western Texas locations, and risk of freezing rain/icing if arctic air becomes involved with the pattern. The winter 2023-24 outlook features risk of arctic air in February (only) causing an icing risk. The wetter than normal winter season erases drought away from the coast while coastal Texas/Louisiana are likely to maintain drought for next year with diminished intensity. Energy summary: Natural gas prices are likely rise during cold weather events featuring wintery precipitation in Texas focused on January and in February if arctic air appears. Overall U.S. heating demand is below normal on the front end of winter and near normal mid-to-late winter. Above normal heating demand is possible in February (nationally). The Chicago to New York to Atlanta cold triad risk is below normal except near normal in February. El Nino winters are usually mild due to lack of cold air out of Canada therefore the “caveat” forecast is less cold. Locally, many days with low diurnals (cold days/near normal nights) are likely due to above normal cloud cover. Retail summary: The major risk issue is freezing rain/icing. Freezing rain/icing occurs when arctic air is present. There is risk of some arctic air in February, likely the first half of the month and brief duration. An icing event is most likely in El Dorado and Big Spring, less so in Tyler. There are no icing risks in Krotz Springs. An El Nino winter produces locally generated polar chill which is cold enough to produce snow. Big Spring has the best chance of snow in JAN/FEB with diminished risk heading eastward to Tyler and El Dorado. No snow is forecast in Krotz Spring during the winter season. El Nino causes above normal precipitation which is indicated in the outlook. Extreme amount (all rain) is possible.   Wind/solar summary: Most reliable is the above normal number of cloudy days for TX/LA/AR. The wind speed forecast is slightly above normal for Western Texas to below normal in Louisiana. Wind speed forecasts could be lower than indicated in Western Texas due to that tendency when climate is cloudy. November 2023  Big Spring: Near 1.0F above normal. Changeable pattern. No cold extremes. Precipitation is near normal (the trend is wetter). All rain. Near normal wind (above normal south-southeast wind direction). Above normal cloudy days. Tyler: Near normal temperature. A lot of clouds, days with low diurnals. No cold extremes. Precipitation is near to slightly above normal (the trend is wetter). Lighter than normal wind. El Dorado: Similar forecast to Tyler. Krotz Springs: Near 1.0F below normal. No cold extremes. A cloudy month. Near to slightly above normal precipitation. Lighter than normal windspeed. December 2023 Big Spring: Near normal temperature. Very changeable pattern. Warm and cold extremes. However, no arctic sir. Above normal precipitation, mostly rain. Sleet/ice possible but minor. Above normal cloudy days. Generally lighter than normal wind except above normal when wind is east-southeast. Tyler: Near 1.0F above normal. No cold extremes. Above normal precipitation, all rain. Above normal cloudy days. Near normal wind speed except above normal when wind is east to southeast. El Dorado: 1.0F to 2.0F warmer than normal. No cold extremes. Above normal precipitation, all rain. Above normal cloudy days. Near to below normal wind speeds. Krotz Springs: 1.0F to 2.0F warmer than normal. No cold extremes. Much above normal precipitation, all rain. Above normal cloudy days. Near to below normal wind speeds. January 2024 Big Spring: 3.0F to 4.0F below normal. Cold extremes possible daytime (low diurnal). No arctic air. Near to above normal precipitation. Above normal snowfall. Sleet involved. However, limited ice. Above normal cloudy days. The wind is near to above normal especially when the wind is north to east. Tyler: Near 3.0F below normal. Low diurnals with some cold days. No arctic air. Above normal precipitation, mostly rain but some snow/sleet likely. Little or no freezing rain. The wind is near normal speeds. El Dorado: 1.5F to 2.0F below normal. Cold extremes mainly daytime. Limited or no arctic air. Above normal precipitation, mostly rain although some snow and sleet likely. Above normal cloudy days. Near to below normal wind speeds. Krotz Springs: 1.0F to 2.0F below normal (could be warmer). No cold extremes. Near to below normal precipitation, all rain. Near to below normal wind speeds. February 2024 Big Spring: 2.0F to 2.5F below normal. Very changeable pattern. Cold extremes likely. Possible arctic air. Near normal precipitation. Above normal snowfall. Chance of freezing rain/icing. The wind is near normal, highly variable direction. Tyler: Near 2.0F below normal. Very changeable pattern. Cold extremes likely. Possible arctic air. Near normal precipitation, mostly rain but some snow/sleet likely. Chance of freezing rain/icing. The wind is near normal speeds with changeable direction. El Dorado: Near 1.5F below normal. Very changeable pattern. Brief cold extremes (arctic air) possible. Above normal precipitation, mostly rain although some snow and sleet likely. Chance of some freezing rain/icing. Near to below normal wind speeds. Krotz Springs: Near 1.0F above normal. No cold extremes. Near normal precipitation, all rain. Near to below normal wind speeds. March 2024 Big Spring: Near normal. Very changeable pattern. No cold extremes. Near normal precipitation, above normal cloudiness. No snow. The wind is near normal, highly variable direction. Tyler: Near to 1.0F above normal. Very changeable pattern. No cold extremes. Near normal precipitation, above normal cloudiness. No wintery precipitation. The wind is near normal with changeable direction. El Dorado: Near to 1.0F above normal. Very changeable pattern. No cold extremes. Above normal precipitation, all rain. Near to below normal wind speeds. Krotz Springs: 1.0F to 2.0F above normal. Near normal precipitation, all rain. Near to below normal wind speeds.