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10/19/2018, 8:16 am EDT

U.S. Medium-range Report

Charts of the day: Canadian snow cover has cold influence on East U.S. Discussion: Above normal snow cover across central and eastern Canada will deepen the next 10 days enabling a consistent cold air source region to the eastern half of the U.S. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid Oct. 24-28, 2018 Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid Oct. 29-Nov. 2, 2018 Discussion: Cold pattern adheres to the NY/New England and Quebec area in the 6-10 day period. Cool weather follows an East U.S. storm early in the 11-15 day period. Extended-range 16-20 Day Forecast Valid Nov. 3-7, 2018 Discussion:  A warmer regime in the Central U.S. and turning cooler in the Southwest States. U.S. Medium-range %of Normal Precipitation Forecast Discussion: The ECM ENS indicates a stormy pattern in the Gulf of Mexico region in the 6-10 day period. The GFS ENS lifts the stormy pattern into the Northeast U.S. in the 11-15 day period.    
10/18/2018, 1:36 pm EDT

U.S. Week 2-4 Outlook

Highlight: Late October cold will fade in November. Southern storm track emerges in November. Chart of the Day: MJO causes warmer November to develop. Discussion: A big driver of climate through autumn is the Madden Julian oscillation. The MJO is forecast to strengthen in phase_1 (western Atlantic tropics) late OCT/early NOV increasing Central cold risk and storminess in the East. After early NOV the MJO is forecast to weaken. Week 2 Ahead: October 28-November 3, 2018 Comment: Cold air extends south from Quebec into the Mid-South trailing an East U.S. storm early in the period. Generally warm/dry in the Far West. Week 3 Ahead: November 4-10, 2018 Comment: MJO-inspired milder climate develops especially in the Southeast. A wet pattern driven by an approaching El Nino continues to soak the Southern States. Canadian chill continues across persistent above normal snow cover. Week 4 Ahead: November 11-17, 2018 Comment: The southern storm track shifts wet weather to the Southeast and despite November the event has a significant subtropical component therefore above normal temperature for much of the East.