Highlight: Late October cold will fade in November. Southern storm track emerges in November. Chart of the Day: MJO causes warmer November to develop. Discussion: A big driver of climate through autumn is the Madden Julian oscillation. The MJO is forecast to strengthen in phase_1 (western Atlantic tropics) late OCT/early NOV increasing Central cold risk and storminess in the East. After early NOV the MJO is forecast to weaken. Week 2 Ahead: October 28-November 3, 2018 Comment: Cold air extends south from Quebec into the Mid-South trailing an East U.S. storm early in the period. Generally warm/dry in the Far West. Week 3 Ahead: November 4-10, 2018 Comment: MJO-inspired milder climate develops especially in the Southeast. A wet pattern driven by an approaching El Nino continues to soak the Southern States. Canadian chill continues across persistent above normal snow cover. Week 4 Ahead: November 11-17, 2018 Comment: The southern storm track shifts wet weather to the Southeast and despite November the event has a significant subtropical component therefore above normal temperature for much of the East.