03/23/2023, 8:17 am EDT

U.S. Medium-range Report: Canada/North-central U.S. colder trend; Southwest/South U.S. trend warmer.

Charts of the day: Risk of <32F during the medium-range. Discussion: Late season chill persists as medium-range forecasts by ECM ENS project <32F risk into the Southwest U.S., Great Plains, and Northeast U.S. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid March 28-April 1, 2023 (24-hour change) Discussion: Central North America trend is colder due to re-enhanced snow cover. The West U.S. to South Canada chill is impressive for late March. Risk of <0F is possible in South-central Canada. Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid April 2-6, 2023 (24-hour change) Discussion: ECM ENS stays cold in the West while a warmer change for the southern third of the U.S. is indicated. U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast Discussion: The ECM ENS emphasizes more “atmospheric river” storminess across California in the 6-10-day period. Wet weather risk stretches across the Southeast U.S. (plus Texas) in the 11-15-day period. Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid April 7-11, 2023 Discussion: NCEP CFS V2 maintains the Northwest chill while wet weather risk shifts to the Great Lakes, Southern Plains and Southeast U.S. The Gulf States and East U.S. trend warmer. California finally turns drier.