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07/22/2019, 9:59 am EDT

U.S. Medium-range Outlook

Highlight: Warmer Medium-range forecasts. Charts of the Day: Heat risk returns to California. Discussion: Hotter forecasts are indicated for California for late July/early August. Sacramento has a chance to reach 100 each of the next 15 days. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid July 27-31, 2019 Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid August 1-5, 2019 Discussion: Suppressed heat due to shower activity becomes established over the Southeast U.S. Elsewhere the forecast trends warmer in the West and Northeast U.S. with slight risk of excessive heat. Extended-range 16-20 Day Forecast Valid August 6-10, 2019 Discussion: A very warm and humid pattern is projected across the U.S. Corn Belt. Warmth also lingers in the West. A cool outbreak from Canada emerges. The GFS OP days 6-10/11-15 %Normal Rainfall Forecast Discussion: The GFS ENS indicates wet weather over the Great Lakes in the 6-10 day period while the majority of the remainder of the U.S. is dry. In the 11-15 day period there is risk of a thundery pattern across the Southeast U.S. (and California).  
07/15/2019, 3:12 pm EDT

Weekly ENSO Diagnostics: Neutral ENSO

Neutral ENSO Discussion: ENSO is essentially neutral with only the Nino4 (central Pacific) warmer than normal (Fig. 1). The still warm central pacific tropics compared with the cooling eastern equatorial Pacific is indicative of a potential El Nino Modoki. Subsurface temperatures are also somewhat cooler especially in the far eastern equatorial East Pacific (Fig. 2). Fig. 1: The 12-week Nino SSTA regions indicate a persistent lingering El Nino warming is confined to near the Dateline. Fig. 2: Upper ocean heat to sustain El Nino continues to decline.