08/10/2022, 1:07 pm EDT

South America Week 2-4 Outlook: Wet Southeast Brazil next 10 days; warm reversal for Argentina later August.

Chart of the day: Latest soil moisture anomalies. Discussion: During the past week La Nina has regained some strength and a conventional La Nina – the third in 3 years – is expected to evolve heading toward the South America warm season. Month 1-3/Season 1-3 ahead forecasts will be issued shortly to address the latest (drought) implications for South America. Currently, soil moisture anomalies identify dry to drought conditions across northern Argentina to central and southeast Brazil. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid August 15-21, 2022: Heavy rain focus on Southeast Brazil. Discussion: A cold front moves into Southeast Brail and causes locally heavy rain next week. To the south, Argentina is mostly dry and cool while dryness and anomalous warmth persist in central and eastern Brazil. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid August 22-28, 2022: Warm reversal in Argentina. Brazil is mostly dry. Discussion: ECM projects an amplifying warm/dry upper-level high-pressure ridge across Argentina during the last full week of August. Brazil turns cooler but remains dry. The wet weather adheres to the north/northeast cost of South America. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid August 29-September 4, 2022: Wet weather risk across northern Argentina. Discussion: A low confidence forecast by ECM renders a showery pattern across northern Argentina into early September. Brazil stays mostly dry.