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02/18/2019, 3:44 pm EST

South America Week 2-4 Outlook

Strong –AAO* Causes a Cool Surge across Argentina Next Week *A 10-day surge of negative phase Antarctic oscillation has emerged as a large blocking high pressure system crests of Antarctica. In the middle latitudes strong storms/cold fronts evolve. One of these unusually strong cold fronts strikes Argentina next week. Last week across South America: Temperature anomalies/Rainfall. Discussion: Needed rainfall across Paraguay emerged last week with almost as much rain across Mato Grosso to Parana and Sao Paulo to Rio Grande Do Sul. Dryness was confined to far northeast Brazil and central Argentina plus northwestern South America. Week 2 Ahead: February 24-March 2, 2019 Discussion: A rip-roaring cold front moves through Argentina reaching southeast Brazil with an unusually cool trailing air mass to affect ARG next week. Most of the rain associated with the cold front is across Southeast Brazil. Week 3 Ahead: March 3-9, 2019 Discussion: A pattern change…Argentina is hotter/drier. Wet weather associated with an upper trough emerges over Western Brazil. Week 4 Ahead: March 10-16, 2019 Discussion: Forecast confidence is below average. Expected is anomalous heat from Argentina to East Brazil. Wet weather in far southern Brazil is likely. Most likely wet weather zone is West Brazil.