02/23/2024, 4:47 am EST

U.S. Week 2-4 Outlook: Warmer Canada/North and East U.S.

Chart of the day: Retreating snow cover. Discussion: Catalyst to late winter warmth is a lack of snow cover across the Northern U.S. east of the Continental Divide. Additional snow cover retreat is likely in the upcoming warm pattern including New England. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid March 3-9, 2024: Snow cover retreat with record warmth eastern North America. Discussion: A titanic upper ridge sits over Southeast Canada in early March causing an expansive warm pattern for eastern North America. Snow cover retreat with record warm temperatures! Plenty of snow in Central Canada while excessive rainfall is likely to soak Florida. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid March 10-16, 2024: Warmer! Discussion: The upper air pattern features an elongated upper trough across the Southern U.S. while the amplified ridge lifts northward across Canada. An impressive upper ridge for this location. The forecast is adjusted warmer in Canada and the Northern U.S. while the wet weather zone is across the Great Plains. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid March 17-23, 2024: Typical (of late) ECM week-4 outlook, cooler/less stormy. Discussion: ECM eases the super warm pattern after mid-March. The southern half of the U.S. is marginally cool. The U.S. storm track is less intense.