05/30/2023, 8:35 am EDT

U.S. Week 2-4 Outlook: Cooler East/Warm West Canada next week. ECM rewarms East week 3-4 (maybe too warm). Midwest mostly dry.

Chart of the day: Steadily worsening Midwest U.S. dry soils. Discussion: Last week, the rainfall needed to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) increased to the 3-6 in. range across much of the Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States adding parts of the Northeast and Upper Midwest just-ahead of meteorological summer as drought fears in these zones has increased. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid June 5-12, 2023: Cooler East; Warmer Northwest. Discussion: -NAO pattern forces a cooler pattern change into the East. Along the southern periphery of the cooler pattern, the Southeast U.S. turns showery. The Interior Northwest remains showery and the Western Canada warm pattern strengthens. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid June 12-19, 2023: ECM is possibly too cool West; rewarms Northeast. Discussion: ECM indicates regenerating cool bias in the West which may be overstated. Anomalous warmth regenerates across the northeast quadrant of the U.S. The Midwest is mostly dry, and ECM maintains a wet bias in the Interior Northwest and Southeast U.S. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid June 19-26, 2023: Cool Interior West, dry Midwest, and maybe too warm on the East Coast.    Discussion: The cool bias in the Interior West is linked to the cool SSTA pattern southwest of California. In response to that cooling, ECM compensates with warmth in the East including a dry bias in the Midwest States. The concern is the SSTA pattern east of New England is cool and consequently the East Coast warm forecast may be too warm.