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08/15/2018, 4:08 am EDT

Early AG Market Wire

Medium/extended-range comments all crop areas. United States: Medium-range trends warmer. Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Gully-washer thunderstorms Corn Belt early period. Turning cooler mid-period Eastern Corn Belt. Much warmer late period. More thunderstorms North-Central late period. A warmer change! Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Warmer trend indicated. Early to mid-period warmth with showers/thunderstorms Upper Midwest late period ahead of a cold front. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): Potential cooler change Northwest U.S. while Great Plains is wet ahead of the upper trough. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): Warm and dry pattern. Canada: Somewhat cooler late AUG/early SEP (low confidence). Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Dry/temperate early period followed by a big warm-up. Late period showery cold front. Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Potentially quite cool and showery. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): Somewhat cooler; warmer very late period. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): Warmer early period then showery. Cooler late period. Europe: For the most part, warm/dry ridge pattern holds. Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Showery/cooler northern Europe early to mid-period. Brief rains northern U.K. early period. Elsewhere mostly dry and warm except showery Southeast Europe early period. Temperate/dry Eastern Europe late period. Upper ridge brings warmth and dryness U.K., France and Germany to Italy late period. Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Could be showery well north and in Southwest Europe. Otherwise a dry and very warm pattern returns. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): Below average forecast confidence. Most likely scenario is an upper trough bringing wet weather to Southeast Europe while elsewhere an upper ridge pattern supports more dryness and warmer-than-normal climate. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): A broad warm/dry ridge pattern is expected. Western Russia/Black Sea: Occasional showers but mostly warm/dry. Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Very warm and mostly dry, especially Black Sea region early-to-middle period. Late period cold front brings showers and cooler temperatures. Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Early period showers in Black Sea region end. Turning warmer/drier again. Slight chance of more showers Black Sea region later period while dryness persists elsewhere. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): Showery trough Southeast Europe while to the northeast the Black Sea region should be mostly dry with warmth and dryness for Western Russia. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): Similar…mostly warm and dry while Southeast Europe is showery. China: Wet weather pattern last third of August. Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Possible typhoon into Japan followed by another weaker system late period striking the same area. East/southeast China is very wet suppressing anomalous heat. Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Showery northern China while southern half of China looks wet due to monsoon. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): Eastern China remains wet; typhoon risk near coast to Japan. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): Low confidence forecast indicates a drier/hotter high pressure ridge pattern emerging. India: Excessive rains West Coast, North and Northeast India. Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Excessive rainfall along the upper West Coast, North-central and Northeast India. Drier than normal across southeast sections. Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Same pattern features excessive rainfall West Coast and North/Northeast India. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): North/Northeast rains continue. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): Wetter pattern change for Southern India. Australia: Transitional pattern, mostly cool but dry later August. Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Cool and dry early period Eastern Australia while Western Australia is very warm. A cold front brings showers to South-central Australia Coast mid-period but the front (and showers) weaken entering Southeast Australia late period. Warmer East late period; cooler West. Transitional pattern! Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Cool much of continent to start the period. Another vigorous cold front brings more cool weather western areas mid-period sweeping into east late period. Not much rain associated with this front. Best chance of 1 in. of rain far southwest and southeast (coastal) Australia. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): Low confidence forecast. Models favor cool/dry trough affecting the East. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): Low confidence forecast. MJO projection favors anomalous warmth/dryness. South America: Southeast Brazil rains. Days 6-10 (Aug. 20-24): Two wet periods Paraguay to southeast Brazil to northeast Argentina. Several in. of rain in Southeast Brazil likely. Cool pattern trailing cold fronts Argentina. Days 11-15 (Aug. 25-29): Wet weather is likely Paraguay, north/northeast Argentina and across far southeastern Brazil. Week 3 (Sep. 2-8): Wetter and more widespread pattern emerges southeast Brazil. Week 4 (Sep. 9-15): Brazil is wet early period then drier late period.