02/29/2024, 8:37 am EST

AG Market Early Global Weather/Climate Alert: Monitoring Africa droughts, why is Australia wetter, and a drier Europe/Russia pattern.

Fig. 1-2: Current weather satellite view of Africa and the 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast by GFS. Discussion: Forecast models vary on weather the Ivory Coast and vicinity receive any beneficial rainfall in 15-day outlooks. Weather satellite reveals there are locally heavy thunderstorms present (Fig. 1) helping to justify the lone model forecasting additional thundershower activity in the latest 15-day forecast by the GFS (Fig. 2). Elsewhere, Northwest and South Africa droughts are worsening. The 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across Australia is agreeable by all models on a wetter than normal scenario (Fig. 3). Normally, a dry late summer is expected during an El Nino climate. However, recent robust warming of the east/southeast Indian Ocean tropical waters (Fig. 4) are leading to increased available moisture in the lower atmosphere to support a wetter late summer Australia climate. The storm track in Europe is across U.K. to the Mediterranean Sea through the next 1-2 weeks leaving areas to the north drier than normal (Fig. 5). Soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals widespread wet conditions in Europe to Western Russia while Southern Europe is quite dry (Fig. 6). Fig. 3-4: The ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast and warming ocean surface in the east/southeast Indian Ocean tropics. Fig. 5-6: The ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal precipitation forecast across Europe and Western Russia and the attendant daily soil moisture anomalies.