01/30/2023, 4:38 am EST

AG Market Early Weather/Climate Alert: South America/Australia Check

Highlight: Argentina drought area goes dry for 10 days. Surrounded by heavy rain. The drought area may receive beneficial rain in the 11-15-day period.   Fig. 1-4: Percent of normal rainfall across South America for Jan. 22-28, 2023, and the GFS rainfall amount forecast for the next 15 days. South America discussion: Where it rains, it pours is thematic of the Jan. 22-28 rainfall pattern across South America soybean, wheat and corn growing areas (Fig. 1). Up to 4 in. of rain was observed in far northwestern Argentina and a small area near the Uruguay state line. The extreme rainfall amount is very confined and only locally beneficial to areas of drought. A broad area of 2-3 in. of rain in Central Argentina is mostly west of key crop areas. Extreme rainfall was observed in Central/South-central Brazil in Brazil’s second corn crop region. The forecast reveals an area of heavy rain across Paraguay and eastward this week (Fig. 2) with a similar forecast although slight northward shift in the 6-10-day period (Fig. 3). An upper-level low-pressure trough extending northwestward into this area from east of Uruguay is the trigger for this rainfall. On the back side of the upper trough, subsidence keeps the drought area across Argentina rain free! The Argentina drought will intensify through the first third of February. In the extended-range, GFS indicates potential for significant rain in Argentina although that forecast is made with low confidence (Fig. 4). The Brazil forecast is certainly trending wetter over-the-weekend. Fig. 5-6: Last week’s rainfall observed across Australia and the ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast. Australia discussion: Rainfall amount observed across Australia for Jan. 24-30, 2023, was prohibitive in parts of Northwest Australia and the Northeast Queensland Coast (Fig. 5). Heavy rains were observed along the East/Southeast Australia Coast. An increasingly robust nearby Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) signal has enhanced the wet monsoon to cause the reported rainfall amount. The ECM ENS 15-day forecast maintains a very wet regime for the north/east portion of the continent while west/south continent is dry (Fig. 6).