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02/21/2019, 7:04 am EST

Early AG Market Wire

A look around the global crop areas United States: Cold pattern breaks after mid-March. Days 6-10 (Feb. 26-Mar. 2): Cold North-central and Northeast U.S. with frigid arctic air northern U.S. No major storms although the northwest to central Great Plains and possibly the Northeast U.S. gain late season snow cover. Days 11-15 (Mar. 3-7): Forecast models are very cold especially the Great Plains. Models are likely too cold! Mostly a dry pattern east of the Continental Divide. Week 3 (Mar. 10-16): A lingering cold pattern especially across the Great Plains. Week 4 (Mar. 17-23): The cold pattern breaks. April: Favoring warmth in the East and temperate to cool and wet weather in the Great Plains. South America: Showery regime Brazil; Argentina is drier. Days 6-10 (Feb. 26-Mar. 2): A cold front stalls over Paraguay into Southeast Brazil early period and focuses daily rain showers while also inviting rain to emerge and widen exposure across central and eastern Brazil as a tropical fetch increases. Argentina goes dry and cool trailing the just-passed vigorous cold front. Days 11-15 (Mar. 3-7): Models are in disagreement. Favoring the GFS which remains wetter than normal across Brazil. Some shower activity is likely to return to Argentina but in widely scattered fashion. A hotter trend is expected in central/north-central Argentina. Week 3 (Mar. 10-16): A wet regime north/northeast Argentina to southwest and southeast Brazil in-between an upper trough approaching the Chilean coast while an upper ridge crests southeast of Brazil. Week 4 (Mar. 17-23): A wet pattern across northern Argentina and southern Brazil is expected. April: Wet weather is favored Interior Brazil with dry risk in Eastern Brazil. Central Argentina is dry. Northern Argentina is likely normally wet. Europe: Careful watch on a re-emerging dry pattern into spring. Days 6-10 (Feb. 26-Mar. 2): An (amazing) tendency for an upper trough (producing rain) to anchor over or just southwest of Turkey. Storms approach and barely reach Coastal Western Europe. In-between the West Coast rain risk and upper trough over Turkey an amplified ridge persists across Europe. Beneath the ridge dryness and anomalous warmth dominate. Days 11-15 (Mar. 3-7): Wet weather surges into Western Europe while the dry/warm upper ridge shifts toward the Black Sea region. Week 3 (Mar. 10-16): A weak upper ridge over Europe causes marginal dryness Central and East Europe while Western Europe is wet. Week 4 (Mar. 17-23): The upper ridge expands across Europe causing more widespread dryness and anomalous warmth. April: Favoring dryness, certainly lack of any obvious wet zones. Fig. 1: Rhine River levels at Kaub, Germany during the past 13 months. Western Russia: Low confidence forecast. Days 6-10 (Feb. 26-Mar. 2): A snow showery upper trough over Southwest Russia (but not the Black Sea region) early in the period. Another upper trough brining snow showers across West to Southwest Russia late period. The Black Sea region receives rain showers late period. No arctic air. A cold forecast for Interior Western Russia by the GFS is overstated.   Days 11-15 (Mar. 3-7): The Black Sea region is mostly dry while much of Western Russia stays snow showery while the cold GFS is overstated there. Week 3 (Mar. 10-16): Low confidence forecast. Favoring mostly dry weather and near normal temperature Black Sea region. Southwest Russia is colder, may snow. Week 4 (Mar. 17-23): Low confidence forecast. Favoring dryness and above normal temperature Black Sea region. Milder Southwest Russia. April: Drier and warmer than normal except wetter than normal Southwest Russia. Australia: Tropical cyclone into Queensland in 6-10 day period. Days 6-10 (Feb. 26-Mar. 2): A tropical cyclone is forecast to move northwestward and into east/northeast Queensland mid-to-late period. Excessive rains spread over the region. An unusually strong tropical cyclone is not expected. Away from eastern Australia, exceptional heat is likely especially across southwest Australia (10-20F above normal). Days 11-15 (Mar. 3-7): A wet pattern across Queensland and possibly eastern New South Wales, both tropical rainfall. Central and Western Australia are dry and hot. Week 3 (Mar. 10-16): Forecast models favor wet weather on the West Coast while Central and East Australia are dry and hot. Week 4 (Mar. 17-23): Wet weather risk on each coast. Most of Australia is hotter than normal. April: Hotter/drier than normal except temperate on the south coast. El Nino evolution favors a drier than normal climate. ENSO: El Nino to emerge in March. The Nino34 SSTA remains just-below the +0.50C El Nino threshold. However, the Nino SSTA regions are warming with a substantial warming off the northwest coast of South America (Nino12). A westerly wind burst extending across the central equatorial Pacific is pushing warmer waters into the eastern equatorial Pacific. El Nino thresholds will emerge all regions by next week. A weak El Nino climate is expected to emerge in March.   Current Daily SSTA 7-Day Change Nino12 +0.56 +1.01 Nino3 +0.42 +0.19 Nino34 +0.44 +0.19 Nino4 +0.78 +0.30  Table 1: The current and 7-day Nino SSTA trends.