08/08/2022, 5:35 am EDT

AG Market Weather/Climate Early Alert: U.S., Europe and Southwest Russia dry/hot regimes ahead.

Fig. 1-2: NOAA/WPC 7-day rainfall forecast and the ECM ENS 8-14-day percent of normal rainfall outlook. U.S. discussion: Dryness is about too set-in for the North-central U.S. and western Midwest States for a 7-10-day period according to NOAA/WPC (Fig. 1). In the 8-14-day forecast by ECM ENS gradually wet weather in the East backs into most of the Ohio Valley in the extended-range (Fig. 2). In the extended-range, Iowa/Minnesota are not included in the wet transition. Consequently, dryness in that region could last 2+ weeks. Although the GFS is a drier model, the 24-hour trend is wetter and in the direction of the ECM ENS solution. Temperature forecasts identify returning excessive heat in the northwest to central Great Plains emerging this week. Excessive heat spreads from Nebraska to Oklahoma in the 6-10-day period. GFS stays hot in the 11-15-day period while CMC ENS and especially ECM ENS trend cooler. Europe/Russia discussion: In West/Southwest Europe another heatwave develops this week (Fig. 3). Maximum temperature easily eclipses 35C throughout the region with 40C in western France to Spain. New emphasis on Black Sea region heat also emerges this week. The 15-day outlook by the ECM ENS identifies a scorching hot 2+ week period for Southwest Russia/Black Sea region including risk of >40C (Fig. 4). Mostly dry weather accompanies the anomalous heat. Models are split on sustained heat (GFS) or a cooldown (ECM) in the 11-15-day period for Western Europe. Fig. 3-4: ECM 7-day temperature anomaly forecast for Europe and the 15-day temperature anomaly outlook for both Europe and Russia. South America/Australia discussion: A semi-permanent upper trough across Argentina through the next 15 days forces a changeable temperature forecast which could feature important cool weather (to Brazil) in the 11-15-day period. Forecast models indicate substantial rain in Southeast Brazil the next couple days and again later in the 6-10-day period and wet once again in the 11-15-day forecast making for a wet 15-day outlook as indicated by ECM ENS (Fig. 5). The Australia 15-day rainfall forecast indicates potential excessive rainfall across Southwest and Southeast Australia crop areas (Fig. 6). Fig. 5-6: ECM ENS 15-day total precipitation forecast for Brazil and Australia.