03/21/2023, 8:57 am EDT

India Week 2-4 Outlook: Patchy rain risk in India but not enough to slow possible Northeast India drought.

Charts of the day: India and China drought zones and the 7-day precipitation forecast. Discussion: Marginal dryness requires monitoring across Northeast India. In China, a drought which backed away from the coast and was most intense over inland China during the winter season and is now advancing back toward the coast. The short-term forecast offers heavy rain in east/southeast China over the next week as a cold front will stall in this zone. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid March 27-April 3, 2023: Wet Coastal Eastern India; early season TC? Discussion: A marginally hot forecast across India next week with no rain across the West and Central India. The forecast is drier as GFS puts focus on a possible tropical cyclone moving northward out of the ITCZ. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid April 3-10, 2023: Upper trough inspires a showery pattern. Discussion: Upper trough across Northwest India yields a showery pattern across India with suppressed heat risk for inland zones. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid April 10-17, 2023: Hotter/drier. Discussion: Low pressure retreats northward yielding a drier/hotter climate across most of India.