11/27/2022, 12:42 pm EST

AG Market Sunday Weather/Climate Report: North America pattern change; New pattern across Eurasia strengthens.

Fig. 1-2: November 21-25, 2022, temperature anomaly observations across North America and Eurasia. Discussion: During the past week or so, the North America chill of earlier this month has reversed to very warm across the western half of Canada while the previous cold pattern erodes in the East and South U.S. (Fig. 1). Meanwhile, a warm pattern across Eurasia has shifted much colder as during the past week arctic air is consolidating in Central Russia and expanding westward into Eastern Europe across emerging snow cover (Fig. 2). A pattern change is ahead for North America. The emerging pattern is quite typical of La Nina regime during early winter. Very cold weather returns to Western Canada and extends into the West and North-central U.S. (Fig. 3). Another La Nina bias, mild temperatures South and on the East Coast regenerates. The precipitation forecast is also La Nina-like (Fig. 4) producing a storm track across California and the Great Basin, much of the precipitation is snowfall, while the East-central is also stormy (mostly rain). Southern Canada is snowy helping the attendant cold to intensify. Mississippi River water level forecasts now indicate some recovery during the next 7 days due to rainfall followed by regenerating lowering water in the 8-14-day period. Fig. 3-4: ECM ENS 15-day temperature anomaly and percent of normal precipitation forecast for North America. In Eurasia, the recent cold pattern change from East Europe across Russia, is likely to continue and strengthen in most notably in Central Asia (Fig. 5). Although not arctic in character, colder than normal weather is likely to persist across new snow cover in East Europe to Ukraine. The storm track stretches across Southern Europe (Fig. 6) separating the colder regime to the north from marginally mild weather far Southern Europe. The Rhine River water levels continue to recover. Fig. 5-6: ECM ENS 15-day temperature anomaly and percent of normal precipitation forecast for Eurasia.