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08/12/2018, 11:02 am EDT

Sunday AG Markets Report

A Review of Climate & Medium/Extended-range Outlook for Crop Areas Climate discussion: Multivariate ENSO index indicates El Nino approach has stalled during middle 2018 (Fig. 1). There are short-term signs (evolving negative southern oscillation index) that a reversal in trend back toward El Nino may generate. However, the El Nino outlook by most dynamic/statistical models for 2018-19 is definitely not certain and a different kind of El Nino such as Modoki could occur. Fig. 1: Multivariate ENSO index trends away from El Nino in JUN/JUL 2018. United States Days 6-10 (Aug. 17-21): Thunderstorms in the Corn Belt early period. Becoming thundery across the southern Plains. The North-central U.S. trends warm and dry mid-period. A cold front brings wet weather, cooler temperatures to the Corn Belt late period. Days 11-15 (Aug. 22-26): Tricky forecast as ECM maintains persistence while GFS is cooler. A middle of the road approach is recommended. Wet weather is likely in the Mid-South and amounts could be impressive. The Central U.S. is temperate or cool. Anomalous warmth should persist Northwest and Northeast U.S. Week 3 (Aug. 26-Sep. 1): Mega-clusters point toward warmth and dryness Northwest and Northeast U.S. Central U.S. is temperate and potentially wet. Week 4 (Sep. 2-8): Favoring Midwest and eastern warmth. CHANCE the western U.S. warmth eases. Canada Days 6-10 (Aug. 17-21): Much warmer than normal and mostly dry. Days 11-15 (Aug. 22-26): Tough forecast which is cool/wet according to GFS but less so using the ECM. GFS is likely too cool. Week 3 (Aug. 26-Sep. 1): Mega-clusters favor warm/dry conditions with (very) nearby cooler/wetter weather (Central Canada). Week 4 (Sep. 2-8): Likely warmer/drier than normal. Europe Days 6-10 (Aug. 17-21): Showery and temperate U.K. and across northern Europe. South of this showery stretch more warm-to-hot and dry weather. Days 11-15 (Aug. 22-26): Broad dry and warm ridging offered by the ECM ensemble is the safe forecast. The GFS is warmer/drier East/South Europe but wet Western Europe. Week 3 (Aug. 26-Sep. 1): Mega-clusters are not sure where the big upper ridge is exactly but agree one exists. Northern Europe could be cooler/wetter but the remainder of Europe is dry/warm. Week 4 (Sep. 2-8): Warm/dry ridge dominates. Western Russia/Black Sea Days 6-10 (Aug. 17-21): Warmer and mostly drier than normal. A cold front brings cooler weather to south/southwest Russia but models are over-stated on this cooler change in the Black Sea region where warmth continues. Days 11-15 (Aug. 22-26): Warmer and drier than normal wins again; the GFS is boldest with this forecast. Week 3 (Aug. 26-Sep. 1): Black Sea region to south/southwest Russia is more temperate and possibly showery while Western Russia is dry and warm. Week 4 (Sep. 2-8): India Days 6-10 (Aug. 17-21): Heavy rains Western India early period. Emerging heavy rains northeast India into mid-period expanding across all of India late period. Days 11-15 (Aug. 22-26): Wet and cool northern areas. Hot and dry southern areas. Week 3 (Aug. 26-Sep. 1): Mega-clusters favor persistence: Dry South but wet across all of northern India. Week 4 (Sep. 2-8): Northern areas stay wet while southern areas are likely drier than normal. China Days 6-10 (Aug. 17-21): Tropical cyclone along the central coast drifts north across North/South Korea mid-period. Wet weather near the coast associated with the tropical system otherwise dry and warmer than normal inland. Days 11-15 (Aug. 22-26): Potentially wet (again) on the coast due to tropical cyclone activity but a low confidence forecast. Hot and dry if the TC activity fails. Week 3 (Aug. 26-Sep. 1): Hotter and drier than normal; wet weather in Southeast China. Week 4 (Sep. 2-8): Favoring a thundery pattern. Australia Days 6-10 (Aug. 17-21): Two cold fronts bring rainfall to Southeast Australia. 0.50 to 1.50 in. of rain is forecast for far southern wheat areas. Elsewhere mostly dry climate persists. A cool regime East; warm in the West. Days 11-15 (Aug. 22-26): Models vary in details but agree on a mostly dry climate pattern. Week 3 (Aug. 26-Sep. 1): Mega-clusters are disagreeable. The MJO outlook favors national dryness. Week 4 (Sep. 2-8): Dryness continues. South America Days 6-10 (Aug. 17-21): Dry and very warm Argentina early period. A cold front brings wet weather and much cooler changes to Argentina as mid-period approaches. Mid-period is quite cool Argentina but reverses somewhat warmer late period. A very changeable pattern for Argentina. Days 11-15 (Aug. 22-26): Wet and cool across Argentina while Brazil is warmer/drier than normal. Week 3 (Aug. 26-Sep. 1): MJO forecast indicates a wetter trend which could include Brazil. Week 4 (Sep. 2-8): Low confidence forecast favors a wetter than normal climate driven by an east-shifting MJO.