08/07/2022, 4:14 pm EDT

AG Market Weather/Climate Sunday Report: Dryness remains a concern in the Midwest States (and Europe).

Highlight: Dryness remains a concern in the Midwest States (and Europe). U.S. discussion: A Flash Flood Watch is in effect NOW for the northeast portion of Iowa, northwest Illinois and southern Wisconsin. After this rainfall, an extended-period of dryness remains likely. Today’s 1200 GMT GFS and ECM OP forecasts looks wetter for parts of Iowa and most prominently the Mid-South States (Fig. 1-2). All of the rainfall from Iowa to Missouri is in northwest flow (aloft) on the back side of a more amplified East U.S. trough. The wet forecasts look overdone given the limited capability of moisture fetch through an amplified Central U.S. ridge to cause the rainfall. So…dryness is favored despite the wetter operational forecasts for the 6-10-day period. Fig. 1-2: The 12Z GFS and ECM OP indicate some patchy Midwest U.S. rains in the 6-10-day period. In the 11-15-day period the same argument, upper air pattern can be applied. The upper trough is more prominently indicated in the East which leaves the Central States beneath a stronger ridge. GFS unloads extreme rain on Missouri in the 11-15-day period. However, moisture fetch to drive that rainfall is hard to generate. Ensembles are generally dry for Kansas to Illinois to the southern Canadian Prairies (Fig. 3-4) and that forecast for days 11-15 is preferred. Forecast models average hotter than normal in the Great Plains for the next 15 days. Extreme heat is possible in spots that part of the forecast is likely overdone. Right now, soil moisture anomalies are definitely trending drier across the Western Corn Belt and throughout the central and western Great Plains and now we’re adding the northern Great Plains into the Canadian Prairies (Fig. 5). Fig. 3-4: The 12Z GFS and ECM ENS are mostly dry in the Midwest U.S. in the 11-15-day period. Fig. 5: U.S. soil moisture anomalies as of August 6, 2022. Europe discussion: Europe drought continues to worsen and expectations of a patter change through the middle third of August are not likely. The GFS indicates anomalous heat evolving this week and peaking next weekend across West/Southwest Europe although all of central and southern Europe to the Black Sea region is much warmer than normal throughout the period (Fig. 6). The precipitation forecast trends drier EXCEPT for Southeast Europe where a wetter trend is indicated (Fig. 7). Fig. 6-7: GFS 15-day temperature anomaly and percent of normal rainfall forecast across Europe.