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02/21/2019, 3:09 pm EST

AG Hot Spot: U.S. Long-lead Forecasts

NOAA Long-lead forecasts March 2019 Outlook Fig. 1-2: The NOAA/CPC March 2019 temperature and precipitation probability outlook. Comment: The polar vortex-inspired cold and supporting snow lingers into March central continent. Warm SSTA southwest of California and east of the U.S. East Coast support warm upper ridging for Southern California and the Atlantic States. The East is wet ahead of the mean trough position anchored over the Central U.S. Spring (MAR/APR/MAY) Outlook Fig. 3-4: The NOAA/CPC MAR/APR/MAY2019 temperature and precipitation probability outlook. Comment: NOAA is convinced an El Nino climate emerges during spring supporting the wet Southern U.S. climate forecast. Each coast is warmer than normal as supported by projected warming SSTA off each coast. Summer (JUN/JUL/AUG) Outlook Fig. 5-6: The NOAA/CPC JUN/JUL/AUG 2019 temperature and precipitation probability outlook. Comment: NOAA continues to maintain a wet climate pattern in the Mid-Atlantic States for summertime. Already wet soil moisture coupled with additional wet climate maintains high flood risk.  The Northwest is dry. Most of the U.S. is warm as supported by projected warm SSTA off each coast and optimum climate normal. Wet soils suppresses heat risk in the Great Plains. Climate Impact Company will issue the constructed analog season 1-3 ahead forecast this afternoon.  
02/19/2019, 8:37 am EST

Hot Spot: Venezuela Drought Risk (Again)

Drought concerns have returned to Venezuela Discussion: Water shortages to drive hydroelectric power in Venezuela have been a long-standing problem for Venezuela during most of this decade. No drought issues are developing. The January rainfall was well below normal (Fig. 1) across Venezuela and recovery in February is not developing. Last week was also very dry (Fig. 2) and the 15-day forecast maintains dryness (Fig. 3). Dryness has a tendency to persist regardless of time of year in Venezuela during an EL Nino climate which still may evolve in 2019 (Fig. 4-5). Fig. 1: In January the percent of normal rainfall was much below normal across Venezuela.   Fig. 2: Last week precipitation across Venezuela was well below normal. Fig. 3: The GFS ENS indicates the 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across Venezuela continues drier than normal. Fig. 4-5: Dryness tends to affect Venezuela during El Nino in both summer and winter.