MAR/APR/MAY 2019 Climate Forecast Comments United States As winter fades the issue is soil moisture. Soil moisture probability ranks in the 95-99 percent wettest in the 1895-2009 climatology. An elevated flood risk is produced by this condition for spring. The Climate Impact Company constructed analog spring precipitation forecast indicates near normal rainfall across most of the Great Plains and across the Ohio Valley. The wet zone is across the Delta and southward to the west and central Gulf States. Elevated flood risk for Kansas and especially Arkansas given the current soil moisture conditions and spring forecast. Madden Julian oscillation Climate Impact Company research has shown that when the MJO shifts east across the central/east equatorial Pacific Ocean during springtime excessive precipitation events occur. We’ve seen that in the recent pattern. Traders/analysts need to be aware of when MJO episodes are crossing the central/east equatorial Pacific Ocean during spring/early summer as the attendant rainfall into areas of extreme soil moisture aggravate flood risk. Fig. 1: Climate Impact Company MAR/APR/MAY 2019 constructed analog precipitation anomaly forecast for North America. Fig. 2: Climate Impact Company MAR/APR/MAY 2019 constructed analog precipitation anomaly forecast for South America. South America There is general agreement between the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast and probabilistic prediction by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society for wet risk in Brazil during MAR/APR/MAY 2019 although the wet climate is not unusually intense. The CIC forecast indicates patchy wet areas in central and southeast Brazil. Conversely, the CIC and IRI forecast indicate no wet risk in Argentina and drier-than-normal regime is possible. Australia CIC constructed analog and IRI probability forecasts are in agreement that dry risk for autumn across Australia is biased toward the western half of the continent. The wet risk in parts of the East is patchy and not particularly impressive, Other than coastal Queensland the Australian drought is likely to continue and spreads westward. Fig. 3: Climate Impact Company MAR/APR/MAY 2019 constructed analog precipitation anomaly forecast for Australia Western Russia There is general agreement between the CIC analog and IRI probability forecast that a general wetter than normal pattern is likely for springtime in the Black Sea region. The CIC outlook is wetter than normal across Western and Central Russia while probability forecasts are drier. The soil moisture trend the past 2 months is less dry for much of this region. The preliminary summer outlook continues to favor an upper ridge pattern over Western Australia. So…this region will need all the rain possible prior to what looks like a hot and dry summer ahead. Fig. 4: Climate Impact Company MAR/APR/MAY 2019 constructed analog precipitation anomaly forecast for Western Russia.  

Last week’s climate High Impact Weather This Week United States: Shock cold greeted the North-central U.S. last week while the East was very warm. Heavy precipitation, mostly rain affected the Ohio and Tennessee Valley(s). California was hit hard with high wind and heavy precipitation event. Heavy precipitation, much of it snow, across the northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the nation. Mild East and South with arctic cold across the northwest Great Plains. Fig. 1-2: Last week’s temperature anomalies and precipitation amount across the United States. South America: Very dry weather affected northeast Argentina and Uruguay where previous summer climate was frequently wet. Wet weather sifted north into Brazil last week. Wet weather returns to northwest/north Argentina while eastern Brazil turns drier. Fig. 3-4: Last week’s temperature anomalies and precipitation amount across central and northern South America. Europe: Lack of snow cover in southern Europe to Ukraine helps to create a milder than normal climate. Central to southwestern Europe plus the Black Sea region were very dry. Wet weather Southeast Europe and marginal wet weather Eastern Europe while dryness and anomalous warmth dominate elsewhere. Fig. 5-6: Last week’s temperature anomalies and precipitation amount across Europe. Western Russia: A mild marine climate and eroding southwest Russia snow cover last week. West and southwestern Russia were drier than normal. This week is continued milder and drier than normal. Fig. 7-8: Last week’s temperature anomalies and precipitation amount across Western Russia and the Black Sea region. Australia: Anomalous heat continues to affect New South Wales although some rainfall was also observed. Dry climate dominated central portions of Australia to northern New South Wales/southern Queensland. Tropical rains affected Queensland. A cold front brings cooler weather to the south and interior southeast continent with substantial rain on the south cost of New South Wales. Fig. 9-10: Last week’s temperature anomalies and precipitation amount across Australia. China: Very cold air resided to the north while unusually warm weather affected southern China. Colder with some snow over north/northeast wheat areas this week. Remaining warm far southern China. Fig. 11-12: Last week’s temperature anomalies and precipitation amount across China.