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10/18/2018, 7:38 am EDT

Global Climate Alert: Europe Pattern Change/Eastern Australia Rain

Europe Wet Weather Pattern Change Discussion: The long duration dry pattern across Europe causing an intense drought has continued the past 30 days (Fig. 1) while Northwest Russia has turned wetter (Fig. 2). Pattern change is ahead! First hinted at this past weekend all models indicate a strong upper trough anchoring over Eastern Europe/Western Russia in the 6-10 day period (Fig. 3) settling farther southeastward in the extended-range (Fig. 4). The result is much above normal precipitation for east/southeast portions of Europe into Western Russia. Fig. 1-2: Precipitation anomalies across Europe and Russia the past 30 days identifies continuing drought in Europe while Northwest Russia turns wetter. Fig. 3-4: Above too much above precipitation is forecast by the ECM Ensemble across East/Southeast Europe and into Western Russia in both the 6-10 day and 11-15 day periods. Australia Renegade Heavy Rains East Fig. 5: Southwest and parts of eastern Australia have received moderate to heavy rainfall the past 30 days while the remainder of most of Australia is in drought. Discussion: Surprising and welcome rainfall has occurred in recent weeks in parts of Eastern Australia and to a lesser extent in Southwest Australia (Fig. 5). Most of the continent remains in drought which is strengthening and forecast to intensify further. However, renegade heavy rain areas are still in the forecast mainly for parts of Eastern Australia including crop areas in the next 5 days and also the 6-10 day period according to the operational ECMWF (Fig. 6-7). Fig. 6-7: Although the largescale climate pattern supports intensifying drought the ECM OP indicates more sneaky heavy rain events in both the 1-5 and 6-10 day periods.