08/16/2022, 5:53 am EDT

Europe Week 2-4 Outlook: Overall trend is less dry…but enough rain to turn around drought is a less certain.

Charts of the day: GFS and ECM 7-day rainfall forecasts. Discussion: A patchy wet pattern appears across Europe over the next 7-10 days thanks to a vigorous upper-level trough. Rainfall amount varies with GFS not as heavy as ECM. Current satellite photos reveal the rainfall events are likely relatively confined with high spot totals relatively isolated. However, over the 7-10-period most everyone receives at least some rainfall. The rainfall is certainly beneficial to easing Europe drought slightly during the next 7-10 days. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid August 22-28, 2022: Rain zone shifts to Southeast Europe. Discussion: Upper trough shifts into Southeast Europe causing possible excessive rainfall in far Southern Italy to Greece. High-pressure ridging keeps Western Russia dry and warm. Rebuilding high-pressure warms Western Europe. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid August 29-September 4, 2022: Western Europe warm and dry; Southeast Europe stays showery. Discussion: The upper trough pattern shifts to Western Russia easing the warm pattern. The tail of the upper trough extends to South/Southeast Europe causing a showery regime. Upper ridge is amplifying to dry-out Western Europe and cause a continued warming trend. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid September 5-11, 2022: ECMWF insists on a widening showery pattern. Discussion: Risk of a much-needed widening showery pattern although Southwest Europe stays warm and mostly dry.
08/09/2022, 12:26 pm EDT

Europe Week 2-4 Outlook: Some beneficial rain early-to-middle of next week!

Highlight: Some beneficial rain early-to-middle of next week! Charts of the day: EDO updates Europe drought analysis plus the 10-day risk of >100F forecast. Discussion: The latest Europe Drought Observatory (EDO) analysis of soil moisture conditions reveals 47% of Europe is in a drought warning while 17% of Europe is in an alert, the worst drought condition. Over the next 10 days, the risk of >100F is present across Southwest Europe most evident this week and easing next week while building excessive heat is indicated for the Black Sea region. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid August 15-21, 2022: Much-needed rains delivered by an upper trough in the 6-10-day period. Discussion: After extreme heat this week across Southwest Europe and the Black Sea Region next week, a following trough brings some rain (according to ECM ENS) to parts of the British Islands, drought-parched France and eastward to the Baltic Region and Western Russia. The hot and dry core is mostly over Southwest Russia to Southeast Europe. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid August 22-28, 2022: Warm/dry again Southwest Europe; stays dry/hot Southwest Russia. Discussion: Upper trough brings rain across Scandinavia into the Baltic Region. Southern Europe to Southwest Russia is dry and very warm to hot. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid August 29-September 4, 2022: Baltic Region/Northern Europe wet/temperate otherwise region is mostly dry and very warm. Discussion: Southern Europe stays mostly hot and dry. Southwest Russia dryness and anomalous heat also continues. Wet weather is most beneficial to the Baltic Nations.