11/25/2022, 10:19 am EST

Europe Week 2-4 Outlook: Cold pattern Western Russia into Europe and Black Sea region.

Charts of the day: Europe drought condition and anomalous snow cover. Discussion: The Europe Drought Observatory identifies continued diminishing aerial coverage of drought across Europe as 17% are in a warning and 8% in an alert status down more than 50% from the late August peak. Included is above normal snow cover in East Europe. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid December 5-11, 2022 (previous below): Colder trend. Discussion: Cold air driven westward beneath high pressure aloft and across snow cover maintains a cold pattern in Europe/Western Russia strongest east of Poland. The storm track is stretched across Span. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid December 12-18, 2022 (previous below): The cold is stuck. Discussion: Snow cover holds the cold over Western Russia into Eastern Europe and certainly Ukraine. The Southern Europe storm track is more expansive. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid December 19-25, 2022: Cold East EU/Western RU to remains. Discussion: More cold in Western Russia to Eastern Europe is likely. Remains of the Europe drought continue to steadily ease across southern portions.
11/22/2022, 8:13 am EST

Europe Week 2-4 Outlook: Snow and cold Eastern Europe, Western Russia and Ukraine.

Charts of the day: Increasing snow cover produces a colder Europe temperature bias. Discussion: The northern hemisphere snow cover has extended farther south than normal across Asia, North America and most recently Europe. The 120-hour snowfall forecast by GFS indicates additional significant snowfall in East Europe, Southwest Russia and Kazakhstan. The widening snow cover will hold a cold air mass in-place including arctic air in Central Russia. The CMC ENS 15-day temperature anomaly forecast responds to the snow cover with a broadly cold forecast across Eastern Europe and Western Russia. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid November 28-December 4, 2022: Snow cover = colder. Discussion: Europe is now gathering early season snow cover and the climate is biased colder despite high-pressure aloft. The pattern trends drier as the storm track is forced farther south. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid December 5-11, 2022: Colder changes are thematic. Discussion: The forecast trends colder across Eastern Europe/Western Russia and given the snow cover increase could easily be colder than indicated. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid December 12-18, 2022: Cold bias remains due to snow cover. Discussion: The coldest model, NCEP CFS V2, is utilized to identify the persistent chill across snow cover for the eastern half of Europe including Ukraine.