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10/14/2018, 7:31 pm EDT

Europe Week 2-4 Outlook

Highlight: A below confidence cooler/wetter forecast is indicated for East-central Europe late OCT/early NOV. Europe Weekly Temperature Anomalies/Precipitation Amount Oct. 7-13, 2018 Discussion: A familiar theme…MUCH warmer and drier than normal across most of Europe last week. Week 2 Ahead: October 21-27, 2018 (previous forecast below) Discussion: Models vary on intensity of an upper trough expected to evolve over Eastern Europe/Northwest Russia bringing cooler temperatures and above normal rainfall to East/Southwest Europe to Southwest Russia. Week 3 Ahead: October 28-November 3, 2018 Discussion: Low forecast confidence as “weeklies” are warmer. However, lead-in to the period by ensembles indicates a cool upper trough over Eastern Europe supporting cool and wet weather. Week 4 Ahead: November 4-10, 2018 Comment: A pattern change back to anomalous warmth and dryness is indicated. Low forecast confidence is also indicated.