09/29/2023, 11:50 am EDT

Europe/Western Russia Week 2-4 Outlook: Middle East rains begin, last into early next year.

Chart of the day: Latest European Drought Monitor Discussion: The latest European Drought Monitor as of Sep. 20th indicates strengthening dryness in Southern Italy, Interior Southeast, and East Europe, plus parts of East Turkey. Southern France and the Baltic nations are also dry. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid October 10-16, 2023: Wet weather across Russia spring wheat. Discussion: Wet pattern across the Russia spring wheat zone while Central/East Europe is dry heading into Mid-October. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid October 17-23, 2023: Middle East rains begin. Discussion: Related to positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is a wet pattern developing mid-October and likely to last into early next year. The rains extend eastward to Pakistan. A broad warmer than normal pattern extends across Europe into Russia. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid October 24-30, 2023: Wet pattern for the Middle East. Discussion: Wet pattern across the Middle East continues. Mild to warm weather is maintained Europe to Russia.