02/21/2024, 8:02 am EST

Europe/Western Russia Week 2-4 Outlook: Warm pattern in Europe as nearby arctic air shifts eastward.

Charts of the day: Warm vs. cold regimes this week and Eurasia snow cover. Discussion: Into the weekend, the Europe temperature regime is warm (except for the immediate West Coast) while in Southern Russia, expansive arctic air extends eastward to Northern China. Snow cover dictates where the warm and cold temperature anomalies align. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid February 25-March 2, 2024: Expanding Europe warmth. Discussion: Arctic air is moderating and shifting eastward next week while Europe anomalous warmth strengthens and expands. Storm track remains intense across Central and South Europe. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid March 3-9, 2024: Europe warmth continues, storm track weakens. Discussion: The warm pattern in Europe continues including Northern Russia. The storm track across Europe loses intensity. Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) regenerates in the tropical Indian Ocean helping to ignite a wet pattern centered on Saudi Arabia to India. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid March 10-16, 2024: Europe stays mild. Discussion: Europe to North Africa stays warmer than normal while Northern Russia cools to near normal. Eurasia precipitation is focused on South Asia.