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12/03/2018, 1:43 pm EST

Weekly ENSO Diagnostics: El Nino Climate Struggling

El Nino Warmth but atmosphere not engaged Discussion: The weekly Nino SSTA observations indicate El Nino warmth present since late September (Fig. 1). The Nino34 SSTA has spiked very warm twice in recent weeks. However, the atmosphere is not responding as indicated by satellite view depicting no cloudiness along the equator of the East Pacific (Fig. 2). Southern oscillation index is also neutral to positive and not representative of an El Nino event. El Nino climate remains in the forecast likely waiting until early 2019. Fig. 1: The 12-week Nino SSTA observations indicate strengthening El Nino. Fig. 2: Global tropical/subtropical cloudiness is indicated and identifies an unusually clear zone along the equator in the East Pacific.